DoD Perspectives on Space Weather

1
DoD Perspectives on Space Weather
Col Harold Elkins HQ USAF/XOO-WX
2
Overview

• General DoD Perspectives
• Collection and Analysis
• Physical Models
• Integration
• Way Ahead

3
DoD Perspectives on Space Weather

• DoD considers space weather as an important part
  of battlefield awareness and essential to space
  situational awareness (SSA)
• Today space weather affects ground, sea, air, and
  space operations ranging from disaster relief to
  major conflicts
• DoDs primary concern is characterization of the
  ionosphere
• DoD identified three space weather capabilities
  needing further development
• National space weather collection strategy
  improving the quality and quantity of data
  describing the state of the environment
• Improved, coupled physics-based models linking
  each region of space in order to better predict
  the future state of the space environment
• Integration of actionable, predictive space
  weather impacts to DoD capabilities and systems
  into operational information architectures

4
Overview

• General DoD Perspectives
• Collection and Analysis
• Physical Models
• Integration
• Way Ahead

5
National Collection Strategy National Security
Space Environmental Monitoring Architecture

• Interagency DoD, DOC, NASA
• Building a comprehensive view of environmental
  monitoring
• Provides integrated views of environmental
  systems linked to supported missions
• Enables planning for evolutionary improvement
• Shows gaps and redundancies in capabilities

6
National Collection Strategy Ionospheric Effects
Characterization

• Key to situational awareness, mitigation of
  degrading impacts on US and coalition operations,
  and exploitation of enemy susceptibilities
• Shortfalls
• Capability to conduct environmental surveillance
  and reconnaissance - collection
• Capability to process and build a coherent
  picture of the natural environment - analysis
• Capability to produce current and predicted
  environmental impacts knowledge - prediction
• Capability to disseminate and integrate
  environmental impacts knowledge - integration
• Capability to support defensive counterspace -
  SSA
• Capability to support offensive and defensive
  Information Operations (IO) - impacts on comm

7
Overview

• General DoD Perspectives
• Collection and Analysis
• Physical Models
• Integration
• Way Ahead

8
Physics-based Models Global Assimilation of
Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM)

• GAIM will further enable the DoD to forecast and
  specify the state of the ionosphere, which is
  critical given our reliance upon space-based
  systems
• Output
• 3D electron density distribution from 90 to
  35,000 km altitude
• Heights and electron densities of F2 and E layers
• Global, regional, and local grids
• Input
• Satellite in situ density measurements
• Ionosonde density profiles
• Ground-based GPS total electron content
  measurements
• Satellite line-of-sight UV measurements

9
Physics-based Models Global Assimilation of
Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM)

• Mechanics
• Model capable of assimilating real-time
  ionospheric measurements using a Kalman Filter
  technique
• Where we are
• Initial operating capability at AFWA expected 30
  Sep 06
• Gauss-Markov version (to 1400 km)
• 24-hr forecast capability every hour
• Specification every 15 minutes
• Complete replacement of PRISM
• Full operating capability expected no earlier
  than FY08
• Full physics version

10
Overview

• General DoD Perspectives
• Collection and Analysis
• Physical Models
• Integration
• Way Ahead

11
Integration

• Space Situational Awareness Environmental Effects
  Fusion System (SEEFS)
• Fuses space environmental forecasts and
  observations with system vulnerabilities
• Will be integrated with Combatant Commanders
  Integrated C2 System (CCIC2S) to provide space
  environment awareness and battlefield decision
  aids
• High priority program of AFSPC and USSTRATCOM
• Current status
• AFSPC/DR seeking significant funding starting
  FY08
• Expect completed integration by FY12

12
Integration

• Joint Environmental Toolkit (JET)
• An architecture-based acquisition that will
  deliver a weather weapon system to operators at
  the strategic, force, and unit level to produce
  tailored weather products for use by decision
  makers
• A hardware and software integration and
  development effort, focusing on
  machine-to-machine and human-to-machine
  interactions
• Field 2009, FOC 2011

13
Overview

• General DoD Perspectives
• Collection and Analysis
• Physical Models
• Integration
• Way Ahead

14
The Way Ahead

• Provide warfighters more accurate and timely
  space weather information, enabling them to
  anticipate and exploit the space environment for
  operational advantage
• Continue advocacy for collection in all space
  domains (e.g. NPOESS cut battles) and design
  collection strategy architecture for all domains
  with a goal of enhanced collection for operations
• Foster development of, and implement the best new
  space weather models to improve accuracy and
  timeliness
• Integrate meaningful space weather information
  into warfighter command and control, planning and
  execution architectures
• Develop impact reporting, analysis and archiving
  processes to document the value of space weather
  products, improve support to warfighters and
  obtain additional resources for the mission
• Document and state space weather relevance,
  requirements, capabilities, deficiencies and
  solutions at the joint levelBig AF buy-in
• Continue working together and create new
  partnerships, within the space weather community
  leveraging our individual capabilities asno one
  agency can go it alone