Ocean Prediction Center NCEP Production Suite Review

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Ocean Prediction CenterNCEP Production Suite
Review

• Joe Sienkiewicz
• Science Operations Officer
• Chief (Acting), Ocean Applications Branch

• Outline
• Arctic Services
• RTOFS_ATL
• Altimeter wave heights
• ET SLOSH
• Navy Coastal Ocean Model
• Multi-grid Wave Model
• Lightning Data
• ASCAT Evaluation
• Hurricane Force Cyclones
• Forecast Verification

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Arctic Services

• Supported USCG Hamilton on Arctic Mission Sep
  2008
• Anticipate growing presence and support in Arctic
• Working with Alaska Region
• Ice services, analysis and prediction
• Oceanographic analyses and forecasts
• Meteorological services (observation /
  prediction)
• NOAA Ecological services

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Real Time_Ocean ForecastSystem_ATL

• Evaluation (operational)
• Slight cool bias in tropics
• Acceptable for applicationsWestern Boundary
  Current
• current maximum
• EddiesWarm bias at high latitude
• Looking forward to parallel
• and added altimeter SSHA
• Data from JASON-2

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Altimeter based wave heightsJason, Jason-2,
ENVISAT
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Forecaster Workstation Display Jason 2
Significant Wave Heights (SWH) (feet)
NWW3-Jason-2 Differ (Jason-2 lower SWH)
NWW3-Jason-2 match
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Extratropical SLOSHftp//ftp.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov/gr
ids/experimental/etsurge_grib2/
ET SLOSH Gulf of Alaska added West Coast Gulf and
East Coast
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Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)
1/8 deg grid Surface parameters
ftp//ftp.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov/grids/operational
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Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)
Gulf Stream Guidance applications Wind vs.
Current
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Wave height analysis (OI)
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Multi-grid NWW3
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Lightning Data
SPC SREF TSTM PROBABILITY
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ASCAT Evaluation
55 of Global Ocean daily 2 550 km swaths 720 km
gap Lower res than QSCAT Less higher wind
speeds (especially HF winds) Fields appear smooth
and Less noisy than QSCAT Improvement in rain
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Observation QuikSCATIncreasing awareness of the
pervasiveness of Hurricane Force Winds
Intense, non-tropical cyclones with hurricane
force winds Feb 23, 2008, North Pacific
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Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones -
Detection and Warning Trend using QuikSCAT

• Hurricane Force Warning Initiated Dec 2000
• Detection increased with
• Forecaster familiarity
• Data availability
• Improved resolution
• Improved algorithm

Improved wind algorithm and rain flag Oct 06
WARNING CATEGORIES Pre- QSCAT 1. GALE 34-47
kt 2. STORM gt48 QSCAT ERA 1. GALE 34-47 kt 2.
STORM 48 -63 kt 3. HURCN FORCE gt 64 kt
12.5 km QuikSCAT available May 04
25 km QuikSCAT Available in N-AWIPS Oct 01
Hurricane Force Wind Warning Initiated Dec 00
244 235
QuikSCAT Launch Jun 99

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2001-2008 Climatology
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2001-2008 Climatology
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Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of
HF intensity Sep-May 2000-2007
7 yr average number of extratropical cyclones
observed (contoured) with hurricane force winds
for the years 2001 - 2008
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Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of
HF intensity Sep-May 2000-2007
7 yr average number of extratropical cyclones
observed (contoured) with hurricane force winds
for the years 2001 - 2008
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OPC Cyclone Verification
N 2,982 3,589 161 149
816 809 1,665 2,254
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OPC Cyclone Verification
All HF STORM GALE
N 2,982 3,589 161 149
816 809 1,665 2,254
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OPC Cyclone Verification
All HF STORM GALE
N 2,982 3,589 161 149
816 809 1,665 2,254
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OPC Cyclone Verification
All HF STORM GALE
N 2,982 3,589 161 149
816 809 1,665 2,254
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OPC Cyclone Verification
All HF STORM GALE
N 2,982 3,589 161 149
816 809 1,665
2,254
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OPC Cyclone Verification
All HF STORM GALE
N 2,982 3,589 161 149
816 809 1,665
2,254
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OPC Cyclone Verification
All HF STORM GALE
N 2,982 3,589 161 149
816 809 1,665
2,254
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OPC Cyclone Verification
All HF STORM GALE
N 2,982 3,589 161 149
816 809 1,665
2,254
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Major Forecast Challenges Remain

• Under-prediction of most rapid intensification
  phase of extratropical cyclogenesis hurricane
  force winds (It is not just a tropical
  problem!!)

GFS 96 hr VT 1200 UTC 8 Nov 2008
Analysis 1200 UTC 8 Nov 2008
974 mb Max Wind 70 knots HURRICANE FORCE
983 mb Max Wind 46 knots GALE
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Summary

• Extratropical Cyclones of Hurricane Force
• Much more frequent than thought
• Detection capability linked directly to QuikSCAT
  improvements
• Impact shipping lanes but also land areas
• Predictability higher in Atlantic than Pacific
• Forecast challenges remain
• Timing, intensity of major cyclones
• Winds, waves
• Ensemble approach
• HF Cyclone database available atftp//ftp.mpc.nc
  ep.noaa.gov/misc/hfcyclone_study/
• Hurcn_Force_Pac_Atl_01_08.xls

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Workstation WRF
7 Hurricane Force cases

• -ARW core version 2.1.2
• -operational GFS forecasts for initial and
  lateral boundary conditions
• -1/12th degree RTG SST analysis (NCEP/MMB)
• -Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme
• -Lin et. al microphysics
• -YSU PBL scheme
• -MM5 surface layer physics
• -RRTM long wave and Dudhia short wave radiation
  ARW Core

1 Atlantic non-Hurricane Force case Dec 25, 2007
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0000 UTC 9 Feb 2007Atlantic
PMSL
Wind Speed 76 kts 925 mb Theta, Theta
gradient 925 mb frontogenesis
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Confidence factor in Marine Weather Discussions

• .PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
• .CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...GALE THU AND
  FRI...LOW TO MDT CONFDC.
• .CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE...GALE THU AND
  FRI...LOW TO MDT CONFDC.

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Oceanographic Evaluations
Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) SST
GOES SST
OI SST (NCDC)
NCOM SST (Navy Model)
RTOFS
RTOFS (0 hour forecast) vs Satellite and Model
Analyses
RTOFS OI SST
RTOFS - NCOM SST
RTOFS - GOES SST
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Coastal GuidanceExtratopical Storm Surge (SLOSH)

• Surge fields into NAWIPS this year
• OPC forecasters as guidance in MWD