http:mahasri.cr.chibau.ac.jp

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Asian Monsoon Years (AMY) 2007-2011
http//mahasri.cr.chiba-u.ac.jp/
Report to CLIVAR SSG-15 Geneva, Sept. 11-14 2007
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Programmatic Development

• AMY08 stems from grass-root scientific and
  societal imperatives Initiated in August 2006,
  Xining meeting
• Strongly supported by GEWEX and CLIVAR
• GEWEX/MAHASRI workshop, Jan. 8 2007, Tokyo
• GEWEX SSG, Jan. 22/25 2007, Honolulu
• CLIVAR/AAMP, Feb 19/21 2007, Honolulu
• Endorsed by WCRP/JSC on 28th JSC meeting, Mar.
  26-30 2007 Zanzibar, Tanzania
• Identified as a cross-cutting weather and climate
  activity by WMO/WWRP.
• 1st AMY meeting, Apr. 23-25 2007, Beijing
• Established SSC, working group, IPO
• 2nd AMY meeting, Sept 3-4 2007, Bali, Indonesia
• Science plan and implementation plan

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WCRP-JSC in Zanzibar March 2007

• Endorsed the concept of the AMY and the
  International Monsoon Study (IMS) as a major
  initiative to promote broad-based climate
  research for the monsoon systems of the world.
• The AMY initiative was visualized as
• a coordinated national and international
  observation and modeling activity to better
  understand the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction
  and aerosol-cloud-radiation-monsoon interaction
  of the Asian monsoon system, for improving
  monsoon prediction.

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Science Plan for Asian Monsoon Year 2008(Draft
Ver. 5 August 30, 2007)Outline

• 1. Introduction
• 1.1 Programmatic development
• 1.2 Participants
• 2. Science background
• 2.1 Diurnal cycle
• 2.2 Intraseasonal variability
• 2.3 Annual cycle
• 2.4 Interannual variability
• 2.5 Interdecadal variability and future change
• 2.6 Extreme and high impact weather
• 3. Science foci
• 3.1 Cross-cutting themes
• 3.2 Overarching science questions

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• 4. Goals and objectives
• 4.1 The overarching goals
• 4.2 Objectives
• 5. Strategy
• 5.1 Balanced and integrated approach
• 5.2 Geographic foci and capacity building
• 5.3 Organization
• 5.4 Collaboration and linkages
• 6. Planned activities
• 6.1 Field experiments Ocean, Land, Special
  processes
• 6.2 Data management Archiving and assimilation
  
• 6.3 Modeling coordination Global coupled
  models, Regional models
• 7. Expectations (contributions to AMY, resources,
  timelines)

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AMY ParticipantsNational/Regional Projects

• JAPAN JEPP, JAMSTEC/IORGC, ARCS-Asia,
  JAMSTEC/FRCGC, PRAISE
• CHINA AIPO, SCHeRex, TORP, SACOL, NPOIMS
• Chinese Taipei SoWMEX, EAMEX
• INDIA STORM, CTCZ, IIMX/Rain, CAIPEX
• USA- JAMEX, SMART-COMMIT, TiMREX
• Korea-Japan PHONE08
• Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia
  Philippines Bangaladesh, Nepal Mongolia

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Classification of Projects
Plus other National International contributions
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AMY Participants International Projects/Panels

• GEWEX- MAHASRI,
• GEWEX-CEOP
• CLIVAR- AMMP,
• CLIVAR-IOP,
• CLIVAR-PP
• ESSP-MAIRS
• WWRP/TMRP- TCS08
• THOPEX- TPARC

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Cross-cutting Science Themes

• Multi-scale interaction (Diurnal to
  intraseasoanl)
• Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Cryosphere-Biosphere
  interaction
• Aerosol-Cloud-Monsoon interaction

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Overarching Science Questions

• What determines the structure and dynamics of the
  diurnal and annual cycles of the coupled
  atmosphere-ocean-land system?
• What are fundamental causes for and how
  predictable is the Asian monsoon Intraseasonal
  Variability (ISV)?
• How predictable is the monsoon interannual
  variability (IAV)? What roles do atmosphere-land
  interaction and Tibetan Plateau play in the
  monsoon seasonal prediction?
• Do aerosols weaken or strengthen Asian monsoon?
• How will the Asian monsoon system change in a
  global warming environment and under human
  transformation of land, water and air?

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Goals

• To improve Asian monsoon predictions on
  intraseasonal and seasonal time scales for
  societal benefits, by advancing our understanding
  of the physical processes determining the Asian
  monsoon variability and predictability, and
• to promote applications in order to support
  strategies for sustainable development.
• Success in meeting this overarching goal is a
  significant contribution to the new WCRP
  strategic framework.

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Objectives

• Improve understanding of the ocean-land-atmosphere
  -biosphere interaction, multi-scale interaction,
  and aerosol-monsoon interaction in the Asian
  Monsoon system.
• Determine predictability of the Asian monsoon on
  intraseasonal to interannual time scales, the
  role of land in continental rainfall prediction.
  
• Improve physical representation in coupled
  climate models and develop data assimilation of
  the ocean-atmosphere-land system in monsoon
  regions.
• Develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system
  (with lead time up to a season) in Southeast
  Asia.
• Better understand how human activities in the
  monsoon Asia region interact with environment.

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AMY Organization

• Scientific Steering Committee (Responsible for
  science and implementation plan)
• Chairs Bin Wang, Jun Matsumoto
• Members Guoxiong Wu, Tetsuzo Yasunari, William
  Lau, Toshio Koike, D.R. Sikka,
• S. Gadgil, Tandong Yao, Congbin Fu, Renhe Zhang,
  C.-P. Chang, Jagadish Shukla,
• Yihui Ding
• AMY Program Office Jianping Li

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AMY Organization Working Groups

• Observation Coordination Working Group
• Chairs Dongxiao Wang, Manabu D. Yamanaka
• Members Zhanqing Li, Yaoming Ma, Yunqi Ni,
  Jong-Dao Jou, Popuri Sanjeeva Rao, R.C. Bhatia,
  Xiangde Xu, Si-Chee Tsay, Jianping Huang, Hongbin
  Chen, A. Higuchi, T. Nakajima, N. Christina Hsu,
  Brent Holben, Somchai Baimoung, Thi Tan Thanh
  Nguyen, Kok-Seng Yap, Fadli Syamsudin,
  Dolgorsuren Azzaya, Samarendra Karmakar, Madan L.
  Shrestha
• Central Data Management Working Group
• Chairs Kooiti Masuda, Guangqing Zhou
• Members Si-Chee Tsay, Kumar D. Preveen, Chi-yung
  Francis Tam, Mei Gao, M. Rajeevan
• Modeling and Prediction Working Group
• Chairs Harry Hendon, Takehiko Satomura
• Members B. N. Goswami, Kun Yang, Xueshun Shen,
  Johnny Chan, Yongqiang Yu, Dehui Chen, Ailikun,
  In-Sik Kang, Jinhai He, Edvin Aldrian, Weijing
  Li, U.C. Mohanty

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• PROPOSED WAY FORWARD
• Finalize Science Plan REVIEW THE SCIENCE PLAN
  AND
• AGREE ON A FEW PRIOIRTY SCIENCE QUESTIONS
• 2. Developing implementation plan ASAP FOR THE
• OBSERVATIONAL, ANALYSIS, AND MODELING
  ACTIVITIES
• FOR ADDRESSING EACH OF THESE SCIENCE QUESTIONS.
• 3. A PLAN TO SHOW HOW THE RESEARCH
• WILL BE USED IN IMPROVING PREDICTIONS

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IMS (2007-2011)
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Decision at The 28th Session of The Joint
Scientific Committee (JSC), WCRP at Zanzibar,
Tanzania, 26-30, March 2007)

• Endorse the WCRP crosscutting Monsoon Initiative.
  The JSC commented that the monsoon crosscut
  should include all the monsoon groups with a
  broader perspective, led by CLIVAR and GEWEX with
  participation of SPARC, CliC and WGNE and several
  activities outside WCRP (particularly THORPEX).
• Request CLIVAR and GEWEX to agree on how it will
  be supervised and the development of an
  implementation plan.
• The proposals for and concepts of an Asian
  Monsoon Year and an International Year of
  Tropical Convection should be considered as
  components of an International Monsoon Study
  (IMS) 2007-2011, a 5year strategy of WCRP monsoon
  research, which would include issues related to
  the East African Monsoon, capacity building and
  application of observations and predictions in
  monsoon regions for societal benefit.

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DECISIONS FROM ZANZIBAR

• JSC DECISIONS FROM ZANZIBAR
• NEED TO DEVELOP A GLOBAL CROSS-CUTTING MONSOON
  PROGRAM
• FOR THE 2007- 2011 PERIOD.
• SHORT TERM TEAM (IMS STUDY
• PLAN (JSC REPS, PROJECT LEADS J MATSUMOTO,
  BING WANG,
• OTHER MONSOON REGIONS/PANELS)
• STRONG LINKS SHOULD BE MADE WITH YOTC AND
  THORPEX.
• WCRP MONSOON CROSSCUT SHOULD BE DEEPLY ROOTED IN
  CLIVAR
• AND GEWEX PROJECTS.
• JSC ESTABLISHED A TEAM TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
• OVERSIGHT OF THE MONSOON CROSSCUT
• CLIVAR AND GEWEX WILL RATIONALIZE THE NUMBER OF
  MONSOON
• COMMITTEES

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SUBSEQUENTLY CLIVAR AND GEWEX IPOs INITIALLY
PROPOSED A SMALL MEETING1 TO DEVELOP A CONCEPT
PAPER THAT WOULD - PROVIDE A GLOBAL STRUCTURE
THAT INTEGRATES REGIONAL EXPERIMENTS AND
PROMOTES COHERENCE AMONG THEM. CONCEPT PAPER
SHOULD INCLUDE - CLEAR SET OF AIMS AND
OBJECTIVES - SET OF PRIORITY SCIENCE
QUESTIONS - SOME GUIDELINES FOR
IMPLEMENTATION - CONTRIBUTION TO
APPLICATIONS AND CAPACITY BUILDING. JSC HAD
APPROVED THE IDEA OF A SECOND PAN-WCRP
MONSOON MEETING WHICH WAS TO BE LED BY PROF. T.
YASUNARI. THIS MEETING IS A RESPONSE TO THIS
RECOMMENDATION. THIS MEETING COULD SERVE AS A
SUBSTITUTE FOR THE NON-EVENT BY INITIATING A
PROCESS TO DEVELOP THE IMS PLAN NEEDED FOR THE
GEWEX AND CLIVAR SSG AND THE NEXT JSC MEETING
AND DEFINING THE NEXT PAN-WCRP MONSOON SCIENCE
WORKSHOP. 1- MEETING NOT HELD DUE TO A LACK OF
RESOURCES FOR TRAVEL (AND TIME)
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Gaps First Pan-WCRP workshop (2005)

• Global Phenomena
• diurnal cycle
• annual cycle,
• intraseasonal oscillation,
• atmospheric moisture distribution and transport
• aerosol-monsoon-cloud interaction
• Model processes surface fluxes, planetary
  boundary layer and cloud.
• Land surface need better observations of land
  surface conditions roles of atmosphere-land
  coupling in developing monsoon precipitation
• Ocean improve (and sustain) observations
  importance of air-sea interaction and ocean
  processes in modelling of ISO and ENSO-monsoon
  relationship
• Regional foci processes over the Maritime
  Continent, Pacific cold tongue and western
  boundary currents, and Indonesian through flow.

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ISSUES
1) WHAT ARE THE FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE QUESTIONS
THAT CUT ACROSS ALL REGIONAL MONSOONS? 2) WHAT
BALANCE BETWEEN MODELING, OBSERVATIONS AND
ANALYSIS SHOULD BE USED TO ADDRESS THESE
QUESTIONS? 3) HOW WILL IMS PROVIDE A BRIDGE
BETWEEN - REGIONAL SCALE AND GLOBAL SCALE
PROCESSES? - SEASONAL (AND BELOW) TO DECADAL
AND CLIMATE CHANGE? - NATURAL PROCESS VS
ANTHROPOGENIC PROCESS? - LAND AND OCEAN
SPECIALISTS? - OBSERVATIONS AND PREDICTION
CAPABILITIES? (E.G., BETTER DATA
ASSIMILATION)? - INTEGRATED OBSERVATIONS AND
MODELING APPROACHES TO PROCESS
UNDERSTANDING? - RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS?
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CLIVAR - global view
Indian Ocean
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A global perspective is imparative for
understanding fundamental monsoon dynamics
Why Global Monsoon?

• The physical principle of conservation of mass,
  moisture, and energy applies to the global
  atmosphere and its exchange of energy with the
  underlying surfaces (Trenberth et al., 2000).
• All seven regional monsoons are driven by the
  annual cycle of the solar radiative heating and
  coordinated and connected by the global divergent
  circulation necessitated by mass conservation.

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Regional monsoon systems interact with each other
and with global oceans

• A strong South Asian summer monsoon tends to be
  followed by a strong Australian and weak eastern
  African monsoon (Meehl 1997).
• Indian monsoon-East Asian monsoon (Kripalani
  1997)
• South American monsoon and the African monsoon
  are possibly related (Biasutti et al. 2003).
• Teleconnection exists between East Asian-western
  North Pacific summer monsoon and North American
  summer rainfall (Wang et al. 2001 Lau and Weng
  2002).
• Continental monsoons are interactive with
  surrounding oceans. Sahel drying is a response to
  warming of the South Atlantic relative to North
  Atlantic SST Southern African drying is a
  response to Indian Ocean warming (Hoerling et al.
  2006).
• ENSO affects A-AM, Americal monsoons and
  midlatitudes.

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Global Monsoon Science Issues

• How is the strength of the global monsoon
  precipitation best measured? What are the major
  characteristics describing the spatial
  distribution of observed Variability in global
  monsoon precipitation?
• How well do the coupled climate models simulate
  the observed climatology, variations and long
  term trends of the global monsoon precipitation?
• What causes regional differences in the presnt
  day climate, in the past, and in a global warming
  environment?
• How do the changes in global monsoon relate to
  external forcing, anthropogenic forcing?
• Have significant changes of global land monsoon
  rainfall been detected that are likely to be
  deducible from the atmospheres response to the
  observed SST variations?

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The END
Thank you! Terima kasih!
.
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Global Monsoon Precipitation Domain
Definition based on summer-winter contrast
(Annual range greater than 150 mm (JJA minus DJF
in NH) and concentration of rain in summer (Local
summer (JJA in NH) exceeds 35 of the annual
rainfall)
Wang and Ding 2006 GRL
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Global monsoon rain domain
Overall weakening of the global monsoon
precipitation
B.Wang Ding, 2006, GRL
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Remarks

• The global monsoon consists of a soltistial mode
  and an equinoctial asymmetric mode.
• The climatology of the tropical precipitation and
  low-level circulation can be well depicted by a
  Four-parameter metrics the annual mean, a
  solstitial mode (JJAS minus DJFM, 71), an
  equinoctial asymmetric mode (AM-ON,13), and
  global monsoon doamin.
• The global monsoon precipitation domain can be
  delineated by a simple monsoon precipitation
  index (MPI) annual range exceeding 300 mm and
  the MPI exceeding 50.
• Strong monsoon strong annual reversal in lower
  tropospheric winds and a wet summer-dry winter
  contrast. Weak monsoon a wet summer-dry
  winter contrast but weak annual reversal of
  winds.

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2.1 Diurnal cycles

• What is the fundamental relationship between
  diurnal cycle and surface orography and land/sea
  configurations?
• Is there any specific distance that land derived
  diurnal signal propagates over the surrounding
  ocean?
• How much diurnal variations over the open ocean
  affect the diurnal cloud/rainfall variations?
• How are diurnal cycles are modulated by MISO and
  seasonal cycle?
• How important is the modulation of the diurnal
  cycle in interannual monsoon variations?
• How can we improve the model physics and correct
  the model diurnal errors? Will the models getting
  diurnal cycle right improve the modeling of
  low-frequency variability (intraseasonal to
  interannual)?

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GPS SG
Example in Sumatera Island (Wu et al., submitted)
Observation (TRMM) much rainfall over the Indian
Ocean in the vicinity of Sumatera ?
however Simulation (high-resolution GCM) much
rainfall over Sumatera island Climatology of
rainfall around Sumatera strongly depends on
moisture transport processes induced by maritime
continent.
TRMM (2A25) 6-year average rainfall (1998- 2003)
Rainfall system around Sumatera could be
simulated by cloud-resolving numerical model.
MRI-GCM TL959 (20km mesh) 10-year
average rainfall
2004 April mean rainfall (mm/hour) simulated by
MM5
mm/year
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2.2 ISV

• How do we evaluate model simulations and measure
  ISO predictability and prediction skill?
• What are the current level of performances and
  common problems in the models? How to correct
  these systematic errors?
• How do the errors in simulating ISO impact
  simulation of the interannual variability?
• To what extent is the MISO predictable?
• What roles does atmosphere-ocean-land interaction
  play in sustaining MISO?
• What is the role of mesoscale systems in
  determining the heating profile
  (convective/stratiform) and how does this impact
  the evolution of ISO? How to get them right in
  the models?

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2.2 ISV (continued)

• Do models simulate correctly the heating
  partitioning between the small-scale, high
  frequency and large-scale, low frequency
  disturbances?
• What is the role of radiative heating in tropical
  heating profile? How do model properly moistening
  the lower-troposphere?
• What is the influence of MJO on tropical cyclone
  and extratropical predictability?
• How do low-frequency components of climate
  modulate MISO and its statistical

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Satellite Observed Boreal Summer ISO (1998-2005)
Numbers four phases, phase interval 8 days
Wang et al. 2006

• Northward propagation in Bay of Bengal (Yasunari
  1979, 1980, Sikka and Gadgel 1980) and
  northwestward propagation in WNP (Nitta 1987)
• Formation of NW-SE tilted anomaly rain band
  (Maloney and Hartmann 1998, Annamalai and Slingo
  2001, Kemball-Cook and Wang 2001, Lawrence and
  Webster 2002, Waliser et al. 2003)
• Initiation in the western EIO (60-70E) (Wang,
  Webster and Teng 05)
• Seesaw between BOB and ENP and between EEIO and
  WNP.

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2.3 Annual cycle

• Archive dataset that can describe the
  comprehensive features of seasonal cycles of the
  Asian and Australian monsoon.
• Identify the principal physical processes which
  determine the onset and retreat of regional
  monsoon system, in particular, occurring abrupt
  manners.
• Design metrics for objective, quantitative
  assessing model performance, predictability and
  prediction skill.
• Provide one-stop data source for cross-project
  use.
• Identify key modeling issues and develop
  effective strategy for improving models.

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2.3 Annual cycle (continued)

• Encourage use of large-domain cloud resolving
  model or cloud system resolving model simulation
  to provide surrogate data for studying convective
  organization, and multi-scale interaction in
  MISO.
• Improve initialization scheme, initial
  conditions, and representation of slow coupled
  physics in the coupled climate models.
• Develop new strategy and methodology for
  sub-seasonal monsoon prediction.
• Better understand physical basis for seasonal
  prediction and the ways to quantify the
  uncertainties associated the prediction.

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Modeling Coordination

• Three potential areas of integrated modeling
• RCM activity
• Develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system
• GCM/CGCM
• Coordinated AGCM/CGCM intraseasonal prediction
  experiments
• CGCM-RCM Experiments
• Impact of land surface initialization on ASM
  seasonal prediction.
• Coordination toward fulfilling AMY objectives
• Small task force group, leaders, Experimental
  design, participanting groups, Experiments, data
  collection, diagnostics, publication.

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Future Scenarios for Summer Monsoon Rainfall and
Annual Temperature over South Asia under A2
Scenario
The general conclusion that emerges of the
diagnostics of the IPCC AR4 simulations Asian
summer monsoon rainfall is likely to be enhanced.
From Kumar et al.
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Need to understand Multi-Scale Interrelation In
Monsoon ISO
Slingo 2006 THORPEX/WCRP Workshop report
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AGCMs simulate climatology poorly over the WNP
heat source region
Kang et al. 2004, Cli Dyn
Wang et al. 2004, Cli Dyn
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Two-tier 5-AGCM MME hindcast of JJA rainfall (21
yrs)
Pattern Correlation Coefficient
5-AGCM EM hindcast skill (21Yr)

• Two-tier system was unable to predict ASM
  rainfall.
• TTS tends to yield positive SST-rainfall
  correlations in SM region that are at odds with
  observation (negative).
• Treating monsoon as a slave to prescribed SST
  results in the failure.

OBS SST-rainfall correlation
Model SST-rainfall correlation
(Wang et al. 2005)
Wang et al. 2005