Title: David Hone
1David Hone????????????????
?????????
2????
???? CO2 ?????????? 550ppm ????????????? ?????????
?,?????????,??????????????????????????????????????
?? ????????????????????????????????????????
3??????????
4?????? CO2 ????
30
CO2 ??? GtC/?
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
5????
- ????? (Kaya Identity) ????????????????????,???????
CO2 ???,? - CO2 ??? ?? GDP
?? CO2 - ?? GDP
?? -
- ??????????,?
- ?? ??
- ???? ?? GDP
- ?????? ??? GDP ???(????)
- ????? ???????? CO2(??????)
X
X
x x x
6???????????????
2002 ?? 2050? ??????????
400
2002
350
2050
Linear (2050)
300
Linear (2002)
250
200
??????,GJ
150
100
100
50
2050
90
0
2025
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
?? GDP,US 1995 (ppp)
80
2002
1990
CO
?????????
2
??????,GJ
t / TJ
70
60
1971
50
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
?? GDP,US (1995 ppp)
7. . . . . .?????????
8??????????????
???????????
70
1990
???????,???
60
2002
50
40
???????,t CO2 /????
????, ?????????
30
20
2050 ?????
???
10
2
CO
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
??GDP??, ????????
9????????????????
. . .???? 700 ? 1????????????
. . . ???? 1400 ? 1????????????????
. . . ???? 6 ???????????
. . . ??? 15 ???????????
10?????????
????
???????
300 EJ
2000 ?
?? 25EJ???
50 ?? 5MW ??????
1000 ?1?? ????
1000 ? 1?? ?????????????
1000 ?1?? ????
1000 ?1?? ????
1000 ?1?? ???
1000 ?1?? ??/??/????
50EJ ?????
100 EJ ?????? (???)
5 ?? (CO2 ???)???
5?? (CO2 ???)????
1000 ?1?? ?????????
11??CO2 ???????????
12????????
?????
??????????
??
?????
????
??????
?????
????
????
???
?????
???????
13??? 2025 ???????
? 2025 ?,???????????????????????????????,???????
- ??????????????????????????????? 100?????????????
- ??????????-?????????????????????????
- ??????????????????????????????(???????????),?????
??????????? - ?????????????????????????????? 6??
- ?????????????????????,?????????????
- ??????????,???????????????????? 2????????
14????????????? (?? 550ppm???????????)
????
?????
34 EJ
2002 ?
?? 5EJ ???
10 ?? 5???????
200 ?1?? ????
200 ?1??????????????
200 ?1?? ?????
200?1?? ?????
200?1?? ???
200?1?? ??/??/?????
10 EJ ????????
20 EJ ??????? (???)
1?? (CO2 ???)???
1?? (CO2 ???)?????
200?1?? ?????????
15???????? CO2 ???????
2000? 2005? 2010? 2015?
2020? 2025?
?????? ???????
??????????? ????????????
16???? 550ppm??????
- ??????????????????????????
- ???????(2010 ?2025 ?)
- ??????????????,???????????????????,???????????????
???????? - ??CO2 ?????????????????
- ?????????????????????????? 15?
- ?????????
- ??????(2030 ?2050 ?)
- ???????????? -?????????????????
- ?????????????????????????????
- ??????????????- ????????????????????
- ?????CO2 ????????, ????????????? ?
????????????????????????????????,???????????550ppm
???????, . . . . . . ??????????????, . . . . .
.????!
17?????????????