Migration and Population Growth in Southern California

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Migration and Population Growth in Southern
California

• By Simon Choi
• Senior Regional Planner
• Information Services Department
• Southern California Association
• of Governments
• Presented to the 15th Annual USC Demographic
  Workshop, June 24, 2002

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Authority of The Association

• Designated by federal and state laws as
• Council of Governments (COG)
• Regional Transportation Planning Agency (RTPA,
  State)
• Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO, Federal)

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Responsibilities of The Association

• Regional Transportation Plan (RTP)
• Regional Transportation Improvement Program
  (RTIP)
• Socio-Economic Forecast
• Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP), Conformity
• Intergovernmental Project Review
• Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA)
• Hazardous Waste Management Plan

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Why Socio-Economic Forecast?

• Establish the socio-economic parameters for the
  development of the RTP, RTIP, AQMP, RHNA,
  Hazardous Waste Management Plan, Waste Treatment
  Management Plan.
• California Health and Safety Code Section 40460
  (b) stipulates that SCAG, with the assistance of
  counties and cities, is responsible for preparing
  and approving the portions of the Air Quality
  Plan related to regional demographic projections
  on which emission of pollutants are based.
• Provide a consistent data set for Cities,
  Counties, and other government agencies

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Discussion Items

• Recent migration pattern and its contribution to
  population growth in Southern California
• How to develop migration projection? What would
  be future migration?
• What are the demographic, socioeconomic,
  household/housing, and travel characteristics of
  migrants?
• What would be the policy implications?

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Definitions

• Mover A person who changes his/her place of
  usual residence from one address to another.
• Migrant A person who changes his or her place of
  residence from one political or administrative
  area to another. All migrants are movers, but not
  all movers are migrants.
• Gross migration The movement of migrants into or
  out of an area
• Net migration The difference between the number
  of inmigrants and the number of outmigrants.

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Definitions (Continued)

• Domestic migration Migration from one place to
  another within the same country.
• Foreign immigration Migration from one country
  to another.
• Immigrant A citizen or permanent resident of one
  country who moves into the reference country to
  establish permanent residence there.
• Emigrant A citizen or permanent resident of the
  reference country who moves to a different
  country to establish permanent residence there.
  (source Smith, S.K et al, State and Local
  Population Projections, 2001)

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Recent Trend of Migration Findings

• The contribution of net migration to population
  growth reduced
• Foreign immigration remained stable but leveled
  off
• Domestic migration changes along with job growth
  (unemployment level)

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Demographic Projection ProcessInstitutional
Context

• Joint efforts between different participants.
• Forecasting technical task force experts in
  regional demography and economy, representatives
  from 14 subregions, representatives from regional
  agencies.
• Demographic and economic experts workshop.
• Policy committee.

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Migration Projection Process Unconstrained
2000 census/2000 DOF SCAG region
Domestic () In-migration (-) Out-migration
() Immigration
() Natural increase (births-deaths)
Labor force
Resident population
labor force participation rate
() Group quarters
Total population
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Migration Projection Process Constrained
2000 census/2000 DOF SCAG region
Regional jobs projection
double jobbing rate
Domestic () In-migration (-) Out-migration
Workers
() Immigration
Adjustments
Comparison of workers to labor force (implied
unemployment rate)
() Natural increase (births-deaths)
Labor force
Resident population
labor force participation rate
() Group quarters
Total population
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Immigration Assumptions Unconstrained and
Constrained

• Regional population is aging yet it will generate
  enough workers.
• Foreign Immigrants will be attracted to other
  areas in the nation with growing immigrant
  communities
• Regional share of national net foreign immigrants
  will decline from 10 in 2000 to 8.25 in 2040.
• 4.45 million net foreign immigrants are projected
  between 2000 and 2040. Annual average of net
  foreign immigrants of the Region is 111,000.

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Domestic Migration Assumptions Unconstrained

• Net domestic migration net migration - net
  foreign Immigration
• Net migration is developed using the recent four
  year average (19,000) of net migration.
• 1985-1990 domestic inmigration rates or domestic
  outmigration rates by age/gender/ethnicity are
  used.
• 3.7 million people will be subtracted through
  domestic migration between 2000 and 2040. Annual
  average of net domestic migrants is minus 92,000.

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Domestic Migration Assumptions Constrained

• Domestic migration is function of job projection.
  If projected jobs from the job projection are
  more than projected labor force derived from
  population projection, domestic inmigration will
  be increased, given the domestic outmigration
  constant.
• 1985-1990 domestic inmigration rates or domestic
  outmigration rates by age/gender/ethnicity are
  used.
• 3.5 million people will be subtracted through
  domestic migration between 2000 and 2040. Annual
  average of net domestic migrants is minus 88,000.

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Characteristics of Non-Movers
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Characteristics of Foreign Immigrants
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Characteristics of Foreign Immigrants

• Recent immigrant is younger, Hispanic, and is not
  likely to have finished high school.
• Recent immigrant works in services and blue
  collar occupations, tends to be unemployed, but
  less likely to rely on public assistance.
• Recent immigrant household usually includes four
  persons per household, lives on income at 21,000
  dollars, tends to occupy overcrowded rented
  apartments and to overpay for rent.
• Recent immigrant worker tends to use public
  transit to commute.

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Characteristics of Domestic Inmigrants
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Characteristics of Domestic Inmigrants

• Recent inmigrant is younger, White, and holds a
  college
• Recent inmigrant tends to work in well paid
  professional/managerial position.
• Recent inmigrant household tends to rent an
  apartment. The household size is lower than the
  average.

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Characteristics of Domestic Outmigrants
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Characteristics of Domestic Outmigrants

• Recent outmigrant is younger, White, a high
  school graduate who attended a few years of
  college, and holds a professional/technical job.
• Recent outmigrant household has lower income than
  the average Southern California residents.
• Recent outmigrant household is more likely to own
  a home in their place of destination.

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Policy Implications

• Of 7.2 million people increased between 2000 and
  2040, 4.4 million people added through net
  immigration, 3.5 million people are subtracted
  through domestic migration, and 6.3 million
  residents added through natural increase.
• Demographic/economic/household/housing/tran-sporta
  tion transformations through migration continue
  in the future.
• Housing, transportation, economic and community
  development, and environmental strategies need to
  incorporate changing population size and
  characteristics.