SAFER WP4 Real Time Shake Maps

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SAFER WP4Real Time Shake Maps
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009
Summary
Claus Milkereit (GFZ)

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Shake Maps reflect the maximum strong ground
shaking during an earthquake and may pinpoint to
areas with damage, calculated after an earthquake
Our aims are Alert Maps during an Earthquake
for use in Early Warning Real Time Shake Maps
for a fast Damage Assessment
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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Main Topics in WP4
Attenuation Relations
MMI(pga)
Shake Maps
Alert Maps
Rapid Damage Assessment
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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Attenuation relation, MMI(pga)
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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Real Time Shake Maps
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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Deliverables
All partners indicate they are fine and will stay
in the time frame. (Reality with NRIAG/Egypt is
unsure !)
Number of prepared, submitted, accepted,
publications increased to the end of the project
!!
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
Site Effects - The QVTM site-conditions map
Quaternary sediments, Quaternary-Tertiary
Volcanic rocks, Tertiary sediments and soft rock,
Mesozoic hard rocks
The QVTM geological map is a simple uniform site
classification for the Campania-Lucania region
(Southern Appenine, Italy).
Study of site effects at the stations of the
Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet)
The map is aimed at identifying the main
geological units in outcrop at which a constant
amplification coefficient or a site-response
function is associated.
1250000 scale
This information is fundamental for including an
average site effect in real or near-real time
shake maps or in the seismic hazard maps.
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
working group Grünthal, Stromeyer, Sörensen
A paper on the Marmara Sea region accepted by
BSSA (April 2009 issue). Submitted two other
manuscripts for publication, focused on
attenuation of macroseismic intensity in the
Campania and Vrancea regions, respectively
Successful Cooperation Marmara Sea /
Turkey Vrancea region / Romania Campania
Region / Italy
Cooperation with NRIAG started (visitor of NRIAG
at GFZ in August 2008) A ground motion
prediction equation for macroseismic intensity
has been derived for Egypt. Focus of the
cooperated work was on quality data control of
the intensity data
1992 Cairo
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
working group Zschau, Milkereit, Fleming,
(Picozzi)
The work focused on
Running a low-cost early warning network
(SOSEWIN) in the megacity Istanbul (in
cooperation with WP4 partners HU Berlin and KOERI
Istanbul).
Main positive results are the performance and the
long-term stability of the sensor nodes as strong
motion sensors, the performance of the installed
network and the possibility of self-organization
of the network.
Developing and implementing new real-time early
warning software for low-cost sensor networks (in
cooperation with WP4 partner HU Berlin).
Cooperate measurements and data analysis with a
low cost sensor network in Istanbul (together
with WP4 partner KOERI Istanbul).
Two papers are submitted for publication (Artel
Method, Fatih Bridge Results), one paper will be
submitted soon (SOSWIN network).
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
Simulation infrastructure for earthquake early
warning system
A transcompiler architecture to generate code
running on the nodes itself and for a simulator
has been developed
An Alarming Protocol (AP) for SOSEWIN has been
developed (in cooperation with WP4 partners GFZ
Potsdam).
The AP provides the core functionality of
SOSEWIN, that is earthquake early warning.
SOSEWIN becomes a hierarchical alarming system.
The already installed real-world prototype
SOSEWIN installations at the HUB, the GFZ and in
Istanbul for Set-Up 4 have proven to be running
stable for several months
So, the system and networking software for this
part is considered mostly finished and first
version of the alarming protocol installed in
Istanbul.
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
The main emphasis of work at IMOR for WP4 has
been to configure the USGS ShakeMap software and
get it running. They use a VMWare installation
 provided by GFZ. ShakeMaps are now generated
automatically and placed on line at
http//hraun.vedur.is/ja/alert/shake
All events in Iceland larger then M3, result in
automatic generation of a ShakeMap, within 2 or
3 minutes of the origin time.
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
SEEDLink connection for acquire waveform data
from Friuli-Venezia Giulia Civil Protection
A protocol for the PGM data exchange among all
the networks in Italy has been set up
INGV publishes shake maps using the revised,
manual location within 3-5 minutes
Instrumental Data ShakeMap
Calibration of the instrumental MCS intensity
scale (adopted as standard in Italy)
Macroseismic Data Shakemap
The new relation for instrumental intensity has
been determined by orthogonal distance regression
technique
Tried a cooperation with NRIAG/Egypt on Shakemap
software and installation
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
USGS ShakeMap operating since 2007
KOERI has developed a Matlab based ShakeMap
routine
1) epicenter, magnitude reg. attenuation rel.

3) regional geology or urban geotechnical
information
2) incorporation of strong ground motion rec.

Cooperation with GFZ and HUB in SOSEWIN
development
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
Alert Maps within seconds, Shake Maps based on
K2-Instruments in Bucharest Disaster Maps for
disaster reduction and risk management
Constructing City Models to Estimate Losses due
to Earthquakes Worldwide Application to
Bucharest, Romania Goran Trendafiloski, Max Wyss,
Philippe Rosset, and Gheorghe Marmureanu
Report on Test Site Bucharest by Dr. Gheorghe
Marmureanu
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
Development, implementation and testing of
algorithms/software for intensity and peak ground
motion distribution mapping by a combination of
modelling techniques (stochastic and empirical)
and real-time data. Development of a frequency
depended shakemap.
Establishment of local PGA, PGV, frequency and
site depended attenuation laws that will be used
for the shakemap pilot testing in the area.
The local strong motion network (RASMON) that is
installed in Gulf of Corinth since 1992, consists
actually of 12 digital (18 or 24 bits)
accelerographs and provide a rich database of
small and medium size earthquake events
consisting of 4.212 records.
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
A methodology for the discrimination in real time
conditions of foreshocks from swarm earthquake
activities has been proposed (test-site, data
basis of the of Corinth Gulf, Central Greece)
Automated system FORMA (FOreshock-Mainshock-Afters
hock) for the discrimination between different
seismicity activities in near real-time
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
The only known/reported activity of NRIAG (Cairo,
Egypt) originates from work done by/at GFZ and
INGV and microzonation activities for Cairo. USGS
Shake Map installed, but not real time modus.
A ground motion prediction equation for
macroseismic intensity has been derived for Egypt.
Distribution of the analyzed values of
Fundamental Frequencies.
Microzonation (Dr. Dief is cooperating with
Parolai, Picozzi)
In the next months he would go with array
measurements (we provided the code for obtaining
dispersion curve)
Dr. Kamal worked together with Mathilde Sorensen
on Ground Motion Prediction in Egypt
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
Network Optimisation
Evaluation scheme and results for optimizing
seismic networks for early warning and rapid
response including cost-benefit analysis
Using the Turkish megacity Istanbul as target
city, sets of optimum locations of seismic
stations are computed using a genetic algorithm
Oth, 2007. The possible sites are located on a
grid of 0.05 spacing between adjacent points,
both in longitude and latitude. The grid of
possible locations of the seismic stations is
indicated by grey triangles. The stars show
cost-optimized locations of a network of seismic
stations in case that 10 stations located on land
are considered.
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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AMRA, GFZ, HUB, IMOR, INGV, KOERI, NIEP, NKUA,
NOA, NRIAG, UNIKARL, WAPMERR
A manuscript has been accepted for publication
Constructing City Models to Estimate Losses due
to Earthquakes Worldwide Application to
Bucharest, Romania Goran Trendafiloski, Max Wyss,
Philippe Rosset, and Gheorghe Marmureanu
The proposed method aims to calculate damage and
human losses for cities in the developing world
by averaging over an entire city, or its
administrative districts.
Figure Map of settlements in and around Romania
for which average Vs30 were calculated. A soil
class (B, C, D and E) is given to each settlement
with more than 1,500 inhabitants (colored
circles). It corresponds to an average Vs30 value
based on the points of the background grid (USGS
map) at a certain radius of the settlement. Each
soil class corresponds to specific site
amplification factors. The numbers in parenthesis
in the inset give the numbers of settlements with
the respective soil class.
SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009

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• Ground motion prediction and intensity conversion
  relations
• for the European region
• Mathilde Sörensen
• - Realistic Near Real-time Shake Map
  Determination
• Alberto Michelini
• - Self Organising Seismic Early Warning
• M. Picozzi, C. Milkereit

SAFER Final Meeting, Potsdam, June 2009