Climate Change

1
Climate Change and Forestry in British Columbia
Jim Snetsinger Chief Forester, BC Ministry of
Forests
Simon Fraser University March 31, 2008
2
Today

• Potential scope of changes
• Implications of climate change for BC
• What are we doing to prepare

2
3
1. Potential Scope of Changes
Climate change

• IPPC 4th Assessment Report
• Warming of climate system is unequivocal
• Much due to human release of greenhouse gases
• Mean global temperature could increase
• 1.1 to 6.4?C this century
• Changes in precipitation
• Extreme weather events

3
4
Global Mean Temperatures 1900 - 2100
Climate change
Temperature projections under IPCC emissions
scenarios
mean value 1980-99
4
(Adapted from IPCC - Climate Change 2007 The
Physical Science Basis)
5
2. Implications for BC
Climate change

• BC warming more than global average
• 3 to 5?C if limited emissions reduction
• More changes in precipitation than average
• Warming greater in Northern BC
• Warming greater in winter than summer
• Warming more in interior

5
6
BC has been warming for 100 years...
Climate change

• faster in north
• warmer winters
• - earlier springs
• - global increase
• 0.6?C

6
7
BC mean temperatures, recent...
Climate change
7
8
...and projected to 2080s
Climate change
8
9
How Climate May Change
2025
Current Predicted
9
Hamann and Wang. 2006
10
Current symptoms
Climate change
10
11
What to expect?
Climate change

• Changes to survival and growth rates
• Longer fire seasons
• More disturbance
• Species ranges will move north and higher
• Changes in habitats and species communities

11
12
3. What Are We Doing to Prepare?
Climate change
Overview

• Assess vulnerabilities
• Develop adaptation strategies to maintain
• ecological resilience
• range of goods and services
• Uncertainty in magnitude and timing
• Priorities may change
• Society must adapt

Challenges
12
13
Ministry of Forests and Range Climate Change
Action Team (Chief Forester)
Mitigation Initiatives
Adaptation Initiatives
Resource Opportunities
Raising awareness and building ministry capacity
Support Climate Action Secretariat
Carbon Management
Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative
Future Forest Strategy
Bioenergy
Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Support of Federal Adaptation Initiatives
13
14
Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative
Climate change
Purpose

• To adapt British Columbias forest and range
  management framework to a changing climate

Desired outcomes

• Ecosystems remain resilient to stress caused by
  climate change, human activity, and other
  agents of change.
• Ecosystems continue to provide the basic
  services, products and benefits that society
  depends on and values.

14
15
FFEI Objectives (1 of 6)
Climate change
Understand the functional constraints for key
species and ecological processes to establish a
baseline of information for forecasting and
monitoring ecosystem changes.
15
16
FFEI Objectives (2 of 6)
Climate change
Forecast how a range of climate change scenarios
might alter key species and ecological processes
over time.
16
17
FFEI Objectives (3 of 6)
Climate change
Monitor key species and ecological processes to
detect changes over time, and determine the
agents of change.
17
18
FFEI Objectives (4 of 6)
Climate change
Evaluate a range of existing and new approaches
to forest and range management for their ability
to maintain and enhance ecological resilience and
ecosystem services, products and benefits under
changing ecological conditions.
18
19
FFEI Objectives (5 of 6)
Climate change
Adapt the forest and range management framework
to maintain and enhance ecological resilience and
ecosystem services, products and benefits under
changing ecological conditions.
19
20
FFEI Objectives (6 of 6)
Climate change
Communicate knowledge gained and changes to the
forest and range management framework.
20
21
Science-based FFEI management principles
Climate change

• Overarching principle support ecological
  resilience
• Improves ability of ecosystem to withstand
  impacts, recover, adapt to changing conditions
• Allows key structures, processes, functions to
  continue
• Increases amount of change that can be absorbed
  before ecosystem is altered to a different state
  
• Supporting principles

• Accept dynamic change
• Maintain adaptive capacity
• Maintain biodiversity

21
22
Climate-based Seed Transfer
Climate change

• Assisting migration matching species and seed
  sources with the projected climate for an area

22
23
The Journey of Continuous Improvement ...
Climate change

• Gather information
• Analyze
• Take action
• Monitor results
• Refine approach
• Take better-informed actions

23
24
FFEI Projects

• Done
• FFEI 3-yr strategic plan
• Future Climate Scenarios
• Underway (examples)
• FFEI Scientific Foundation
• Climate BC upgrades access
• BEC updates
• Next gen. of TEM PEM
• Timber supply impacts (GY)
• TASS adaptation adjustment
• Assisted migration adaptation trial
• Role of seed lot diversity in plantation
  resilience
• Climate-based seed transfer system
• Species selection guidelines update
• More

• Planned and Funded (examples)
• Framework operational assessment of ecological
  resilience
• Climate BC upgrades and access (continued)
• Climate BC evaluation and expansion
• More (40 in all)
• Subject to further planning funding
• 91 additional projects

24
25
Further Information
Climate change
Dale DraperDirector, Climate Changeand Forest
Carbon Strategic Unit Ministry of Forests and
Range, Victoria Ph [phone] Email
Dale.Draper_at_gov.bc.ca Adapting to Climate
Change http//www.for.gov.bc.ca/mof/Climate_Change
FFEI web site www.for.gov.bc.ca/hts/Future_Fore
sts
25