P1246341511FyPXw

1
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
Fuel and Famine Rural
Energy Crisis in the DPRK

IGCC
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 igcc online ? http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel
2
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
The History

• Three decades of autarkic, Soviet-style economic
  development during the Cold War led to
• Energy intensive, rapid industrialization
• Complete dependence on foreign oil imports
• Reliance on inefficient Soviet technology and
  maintenance
• Lack of environmental controls

2 of12
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 igcc online ? http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel
3
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
The Causes

• Loss of subsidized Soviet oil imports
• Failure to maintain and modernize energy
  infrastructure
• Natural disasters

3 of 12
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 igcc online ? http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel
4
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
The Consequences

• In the last decade DPRKs commercial energy
  supply has fallen by one-third to one-half, with
  impacts felt throughout the economy
• Only with a solution to the energy problem is
  economic recovery possible

4 of 12
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 igcc online ? http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel
5
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
Rural Energy Shortages

• Fertilizer
• Diesel Fuel
• Electricity
• Coal
• Biomass

5 of 12
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 igcc online ? http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel
6
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
Impacts of Rural Shortages

• Lower food production
• More human and animal labor required
• Transportation limited
• Lower standard of living
• Poor health services
• Environmental degradation
• Vulnerability to natural disasters
• Risk of new food catastrophe
• Unstable rural society

6 of 12
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 igcc online ? http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel
7
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
The Goals of the Rural Energy Rehabilitation
Program

• Provide the modern energy inputs necessary
  for the DPRK agriculture to recover a
  sustainable production level
• Meet the basic needs of the rural population

7 of 12
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 igcc online ? http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel
8
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
Components of the Rural Energy Rehabilitation
Program Short-term energy supplies from imports

• Fertilizer
• Tractor fuel
• Electricity
• at levels sufficient to enable agricultural
  recovery in the shortest possible time

8 of 12
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 igcc online ? http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel
9
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
Three Components of the Rural Energy
Rehabilitation Program

• Short-term energy supplies from imports
  includes fertilizer, tractor fuel, and
  electricity at levels sufficient to enable
  agricultural recovery in the shortest attainable
  time
• Medium-term capital construction includes
  projects necessary projects necessary of the DPRK
  rural energy sector in the medium term
  (approximately 5years)
• Rehabilitation Projects restore the rural
  electricity transmission and distribution grid,
  develop reliable local power generation, improve
  the energy efficiency of the irrigation and
  drainage system, modernize fertilizer and tractor
  factories, improve the transportation of
  agricultural inputs and products

9 of 12
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 igcc online ? http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel
10
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
Three Components of the Rural Energy
Rehabilitation Program

• Short-term energy supplies from imports
  includes fertilizer, tractor fuel, and
  electricity at levels sufficient to enable
  agricultural recovery in the shortest attainable
  time
• Medium-term capital construction includes
  projects necessary projects necessary of the DPRK
  rural energy sector in the medium term
  (approximately 5years)
• Rehabilitation Projects restore the rural
  electricity transmission and distribution grid,
  develop reliable local power generation, improve
  the energy efficiency of the irrigation and
  drainage system, modernize fertilizer and tractor
  factories, improve the transportation of
  agricultural inputs and products

10 of 12
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 igcc online ? http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel
11
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
Components of the Rural Energy Rehabilitation
Program

• Short-term energy supplies from imports
• Medium-term capital construction
• Rehabilitation Projects

11 of 12
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 igcc online ? http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel
12
Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
presented by Peter Hayes
University of California
Thursday, March 16, 2000
Benefits of the Rural Energy Rehabilitation
Program

• Much lower expense and less amount of time than
  the restoration of the entire national energy
  infrastructure
• Provides the knowledge and experience required
  for more complex cooperation in the future

12 of 12
Robinson Building Complex 9500 Gilman Drive La
Jolla, CA 92093-0518 phone ? 858.534.3352 fax ?
858.534.7655 email ? ph13_at_sdcc12.ucsd.edu f for
full text see igcc online ?http//www-igcc.ucsd.ed
u/publications/policy_papers/pp46.html
authors James H. Williams Peter
Hayes David Von Hippel