Discrimination in the Military?

1
Discrimination in the Military?

• Bill Gordon
• Gabriel Kwofie
• Jeff Parks
• Tom Yoo

2
What We Did

• We looked for empirical and statistical evidence
  in the US Army in order to determine whether or
  not there is substantial evidence to support the
  claim that discrimination exists within the US
  Army.

3
Is there Discrimination in the US Army?

• Blacks make up a smaller percentage of high
  ranking officers than lower ranking officers
• Blacks are not being promoted up the chain of
  command as fast as other racial groups

4
Blacks as Percentage of Total Personnel by Grade
Source U.S. Department of Defense
5
Source U.S. Department of Defense
6
Enlisted Attrition (at 36 months)
Source U.S. Department of Defense
7
Statistical Support for Discrimination

• Empirical evidence shows statistically
  significant evidence for discrimination in the
  way blacks and minorities are promoted in the
  Army
• Black males are promoted from stage two 2.2
  slower than their white counterparts
• All other minorities are promoted 2.9 slower
  than their white counterparts from stage two

8
Minority Male Promotion Rates

• Evidence supports the notion that minorities have
  a difficult time getting promoted within the
  ranks of the military
• There are statistically significant differences
  in retention and promotion rates amongst white
  males, blacks and other minorities.

9
Female Promotion Rates

• Evidence also supports the notion that women have
  a difficult time getting promoted within the
  ranks of the military
• There are statistically significant differences
  in retention and promotion rates amongst white
  females, black females and other minorities.

10
Summary of Promotion Rates

• Below we see the overall situation facing
  minorities and
• women in the military.

Promotion and Retention rates for 1977 Cohort
11
Chances for Early Promotion

• It is statistically more likely for a white
  officer to be promoted more quickly on average
  than it is for a minority
• For a white officer, the probability of early
  promotion is .509
• For a minority officer, the probability of early
  promotion is .434
• These results are statistically significant

12
Performance Appraisals

• We found strong evidence that performance
  appraisals, which are very
• subjective at the early stages, are biased
  against minorities.
• Below is data on early promotion recommendations
  by race.
• Minorities are given early promotion
  recommendations much less frequently than whites.
• The difference is statistically significant

Performance Appraisals for early-stage white and
minority officers
13
The Question of Human Capital?

• Empirical evidence that is statistically
  significant suggests that the differences in
  promotion rates between blacks and whites are not
  due to a lower rate of human capital for blacks

14
Promotion Appraisals (Cont.)

• It is surmised that the differences could be due
  to human capital
• characteristics.
• The data suggests that human capital corrections
  do eliminate some of the
• disparity.
• Attending a selective college and GPA brings the
  coefficient on
• Minority down from -.090 to -.051 (.064
  -.115).
• The variable is still statistically significant,
  suggesting some other factors, possibly
  discrimination

15
Promotion to 4th Level

• Below we see three models for predicting
  promotion to the 4th Level
• Model 1 suggests that being a minority is highly
  detrimental to this
• accomplishment
• However, when corrected for GPA, the variable is
  not significant
• And, when corrected for GPA and early promotion
  recommendation,
• the variable is not significant.
• This suggests that promotion is probably fair at
  the 4th level, but the effects of
• discrimination in prior appraisals impacts
  promotion in subsequent levels.

16
Why promotional differences Discrimination in
Job Assignment?

• NAVAL CASE STUDY
• The COMBAT models below predict the probability
  of being assigned to a combat
• ship. Even when corrected for GPA, minority
  status is significantly negative.
• The CRUDES models predict how many combat ships
  were served on by applicants
• for 4th level promotion.
• Both of these suggest that minorities are being
  discriminated against in job
• assignment. This leads to less acquired skills
  and lower overall human capital for
• minorities.

17
The Military Academies

• At both the US Military Academy at West Point and
  the US Naval Academy at Annapolis, blacks are
  admitted at the lowest rate among all studied
  ethnicities
• However, the blacks that apply to these academies
  do have a lower average SAT scores than do
  whites.

18
Admission Rates

• At both the U.S. Naval and Military Academies,
  blacks are admitted at the lowest rate (1995)

Blacks Hispanics Asians Whites
US Military Academy 9.5 11.3 15.5 14.0
US Naval Academy 11.2 19.6 13.1 14.9
19
Discrimination at West Point?

• Case Study
• 1995 entering class at the U.S. Military Academy
  at West Point

20
Comparison of SAT Scores
Verbal SAT Scores Verbal SAT Scores Verbal SAT Scores Verbal SAT Scores
Blacks Whites Difference in Median Score
MA 510 550 40
NA 510 580 70
Math SAT Scores Math SAT Scores Math SAT Scores Math SAT Scores
Blacks Whites Difference in Median Score
MA 590 650 60
NA 590 670 80
High School Rank High School Rank High School Rank High School Rank
Blacks Whites Difference in Median Score
MA 18 14 4
NA 36 15 21
21
What Does Affirmative Action Accomplish?

• There have been suggestions that had race not
  been a factor in admission, fewer blacks would
  have been admitted into West Point.
• Statistics support the fact that Affirmative
  Action is helping blacks gain admission to the US
  military academies

22
Affirmative Action in Favor of Blacks
Odds of Admission
US Military Academy US Naval Academy
Black to White 1.94 to 1 4.44 to 1
Hispanic to White 1.20 to 1 3.32 to 1
Asian to White 0.68 to 1 0.67 to 1
This table shows the odds that the school will admit black, Hispanic or Asian applicant instead of a white one, when the applicants are equally qualified and the school has only a single spot for them. Statistically significant at plt.0.05 or better. This table shows the odds that the school will admit black, Hispanic or Asian applicant instead of a white one, when the applicants are equally qualified and the school has only a single spot for them. Statistically significant at plt.0.05 or better. This table shows the odds that the school will admit black, Hispanic or Asian applicant instead of a white one, when the applicants are equally qualified and the school has only a single spot for them. Statistically significant at plt.0.05 or better.
23
What Does this Mean for the Future?

• Blacks are slowly beginning to increase their
  percentage representation in officer positions
  towards the top of the command chain
• As the Army makes an effort to promote more
  qualified blacks up the military ranks, blacks
  will slowly have a higher representation in the
  higher ranks of the military

24
Conclusion

• There definitely is discrimination in the way the
  army promotes black officers
• The army is making a concerted effort to
  eradicate this problem
• Trends predict that in 25 years, statistically
  the problem of racial discrimination in the
  military will have been eradicated