Alternative Fuels in East TN Reasons, Technical Info, Users

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Alternative Fuels in East TNReasons, Technical
Info, Users Whats to Come

• East Tennessee Section of the AiChE
• Eastman, Room B-150C Nov. 13, 2007
• Jonathan Overly, Director
• East Tennessee Clean Fuels Coalition

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Todays Agenda

• 1. The Basics - Alternative Fuels 101
• 2. Current U.S. Oil Production Prices
• 3. Current Energy Oil Peaking Picture
• 4. Energy In vs. Energy Out
• 5. The Air Quality Connection for East TN
• 6. Biodiesel -- What, emissions, ET picture,
  users
• 7. Ethanol -- What, UTBI, Billion Ton Vision
• 8. Options for East Tennesseans to Make a
  Difference

The ETCFCs 2007 Founding Partners
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The Basics - Alternative Fuels 101The Reasons
for their Use

• Cleaner burn equals reduced pollution, both up
  high and nearby
• Reduce foreign oil dependence
• American fuels diversity
• Reduce national security risks
  due to importing oil from
  not-so-friendly countries
  (e.g., Iran,
  Venezuela)
• Promote renewable resource use
• Helps create jobs in the USA!

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AF101 - What percentages of these alt
fuels are domestically produced?

• Biodiesel - 100
• Electricity - 95
• Ethanol - 100
• Natural gas - 90
• Propane - 95

Gasoline Diesel 40
vs.
In 1945, we were 0 dependent on
foreign countries for oil now we are 60
dependent. 60 years 0-60 reliance on others
for oil
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U.S. EIA Data PetroleumCrude Oil Production
Doesnt look good, does it?
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U.S. EIA Data PetroleumImports by Country
EIA - However, Pemex has warned that Cantarell
production has now entered a stage of long-term
decline. (one field accounts for 60 of their
oil).
Still doesnt look good, at least for us using
American fuels.
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U.S. EIA Data PetroleumHistoric Crude Oil
Prices
Where is this pattern headed?
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Long-termU.S. Energy Data - Production
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Really Long-term U.S. Energy Data (Consumption)
Where Fossil Fuels Come From
What does this growth curve look like if add up
all these different forms of energy we are
consuming?
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Really Long-term U.S. Energy Data (Consumption)
Where Fossil Fuels Come From
Just the facts here, people.
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When Peaking? No one knows for certain

• Forecast Source
• December 2005 Deffeyes (U.S.)
• 2006-2007 Bakhitari (Iran)
• 2007-2009 Simmons (U.S.)
• After 2007 Skrebowski (U.K.)
• 2010 Campbell (Ireland)
• Before 2010 Goodstein (U.S.)
• After 2010 World Energy Council
• 2012 Weng (China)
• 2016 Doug-Westwood
  (U.K.)
• After 2020 CERA (U.S.)

5 years
5-15 years
2 ?
1 ?
20 years
From Robert Hirschs presentation Peaking of
World Oil Production at the National Clean
Cities Congress Expo May 8, 2006
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Forget the oil peak for a minutewho do you want
to give your money to?
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Oil Systems 1 Least efficient
U.S. Energy Flow Map 2001
This is why improving fuel economy and using
hybrids is important!
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Fuel Use Within Sectors
Oil Systems 2 Least diversified
Graph courtesy of the Central Ohio Clean Fuels
Coalition (COCFC)
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One Way to Look atLife-cycle Fossil Energy
Efficiency
Image from the U.S. DOE Michael Wang of
Argonne Natl Lab and his GREET Model.
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Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as FuelBasis
What you get as output for every 1 unit
of fossil energy input
Circle graphs courtesy of nationalgeographic.com
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Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as FuelAdd ?
Gasoline Diesel
What you get as output for every 1 unit
of fossil energy input
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Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as FuelAdd ?
Corn-based Ethanol
What you get as output for every 1 unit
of fossil energy input
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Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as FuelAdd ?
Todays Biodiesel
What you get as output for every 1 unit
of fossil energy input
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Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as FuelAdd ?
Sugar-based Ethanol
What you get as output for every 1 unit
of fossil energy input
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Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as FuelAdd ?
Cellulosic Ethanol
What you get as output for every 1 unit
of fossil energy input
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The ConundrumAll 3 Legs Needed
Alternative fuels cannot do it alone. They must
be teamed with significantly improving vehicle
fuel efficiency and energy conservation to really
achieve the ultimate goal of foreign oil, or oil
period, independence.
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Air Quality We Are Not Meeting Federal
Health-based Standards!
If EPA reduces the 8-hour O3 threshold to 75 ppb,
more TN counties will be NA.
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Biodiesel Summary

• 25 public stations (4 coming in TC!) 100 fleets
  using blends today
• 5 Plants in Tennessee now 3 Plants Being Built
  in East TN
• Nu-Energie, LLC Phipps Bend
• Suns-Oil, LCC southeastern TN
• Northington Energy Morgan County
• Pros
• Is the only alt fuel that can yield increased
  economy and power
• No new vehicles or infra. Required Fill-n-go
  option at B20
• Renewable less smoke smell biodegradable
  nontoxic
• Helps equipment last longer less wear and tear
• Cons
• Possible fuel filter changes all biodiesel gels
  faster than diesel

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Biodiesel Emissions Reductions(from NREL 2001)

• Pollutant B20 B100
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) life-cycle - 15 - 75
• Carbon monoxide (CO) - 13 - 43
• Hydrocarbons (VOCs) - 11 - 56
• Nitrogen oxides (NOx) 1-2 6
• Sulfur dioxide (SO2) - 19-20 - 99
• Particulate matter (PM) - 12-18 - 55
• Carcinogenic compounds - 20 - 80-90
• Air toxics - 12-20 - 60-90

With a low-NOx additive, can be a 5-40
reduction. Additionally, new studies show
reductions in NOx in new engines w/o additives.
Over 90 of diesel PM is PM-2.5 or smaller,
with about 70 being 1 micron or smaller in size.
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Biodiesel Emissions Reductions(graphical
presentation)
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Biodiesel Explosion in ET 3/04Consumption in
2003 zero gals B100
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Biodiesel Explosion in ETB100 use (gal) 03-0,
04-90k, 05-750k, 06-2.0m Public stations
03-0, 04-5, 05-17, 06-25
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ET Cities Towns Leaders for BiodieselCities
with Populations 10,000(and smaller that have
started biodiesel projects)
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ET Public Biodiesel Stations(there were none in
March 2004)As of 11/07 24 B99 - 2, B20 -
15, B5/B10 7 new B20s are either built or are
planned!
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Biodiesel Users in East Tennessee85 fleets now
using biodiesel
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Regional Fleets - Biodiesel
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Ethanol Summary

• 2 public E85 stations 3 on their way to
  Tri-Cities!
• about 50 public E10 stations, including 15 in
  Tri-Cities
• Tennessee Ethanol Plants
• 1 open today Tate Lyle Loudon County (75
  MGY)
• Open soon EGP Obion County (100 MGY)
• Opening in 2009 UTBI/Mascoma Monroe County
  (5 MGY)
• Pros
• E10 can run in ANY gasoline vehicle
• E85 in flex-fuel vehicles, which can switch back
  and forth
• Cons
• More power (octane rating of 105), but reduced
  fuel economy easy to fix! Just price ethanol at
  20-25 less than gas

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Biorefinery Location

• Niles Ferry Industrial Park, Vonore, Tennessee
• Heart of Sweetwater Valley
• Transportation infrastructure
• Utilities services
• Proximity to distributors

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(No Transcript)
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Billion Ton VisionBasis Assumptions

• Goal was set By 2030, biomass will supply 5 of
  the nations power, 20 of its transportation
  fuels and 25 of its chemicals
• That is equivalent to 30 of our current
  petroleum use, and will require 1 billion dry
  tons of biomass feedstock per year
• Largest single source of biomass is forestlands
  (no parks, roads)
• What assumptions?
• Yields of corn, wheat and other small grains
  increased by 50
• Residue-to-grain ratio for soybeans increased to
  21
• Harvest recovery capable of recovering 75 of
  annual crop residues
• All cropland managed with no-till methods
• 55M acres of cropland, idle cropland and cropland
  pasture dedicated to production of perennial
  bioenergy crops
• All manure used for biofuel (excluding that
  applied on-farm for soil improvement)
• All other available residues utilized

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Billion Ton Vision OK whats the summary?
Graph from the Billion Ton Study (manipulated by
Jonathan Overly).
An annual biomass supply of more than 1.3
billion dry tons can be accomplished with
relatively modest changes in land use and
agricultural and forestry practices.
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What are the options for East Tennesseans to
Make a Difference?

• FUEL ECONOMY
• Look to purchase a vehicle that gets
  significantly ( 5 mpg) better fuel economy when
  purchasing next
• Hybrids are just one option, but are a good
  choice
• USING ALTERNATIVE FUELS
• E10 - Any current gasoline vehicle can use E10!
• E85 - Look at an FFV for your next vehicle
  purchase
• Biodiesel - Any diesel vehicle can burn a
  biodiesel blend - B20
• CHANGING DRIVING HABITS OR STYLE
• Bike, walk, carpool, use mass transit, trip chain
• reduce your quick stops and starts, keep tires at
  right pressure

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Another Way You Can Help Today Join the ETCFC!

• 5-year old East Tennessee nonprofit
• Focused on education and creating Actors for
  Change in the transportation sector through
  greater use of alternative fuels, AFVs more
  fuel efficient vehicles
• Sustained by a combination of reg.
  memberships state/federal grants
  
• Local funding is critical to our
  receiving the grants!
  (matching)
• ROI
• Newsletter, email list, meetings
• Connection to the leading org.
  that is driving
  alt fuels use higher
  efficiency vehicles use in
  East TN!

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Considering this and this
shouldnt we be doingall that we can to help?
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Your Link to Alternative FuelsInformation in
East TennesseeETCleanFuels.org (865)
974-3625Questions?
Do not follow where the path may lead. Go,
instead, where there is no path and leave a
trail. - Ralph Waldo Emerson