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Title: G


1
Central Bank Misperceptions and the Role of Money
in Interest Rate Rules
  • Günter W. Beck and Volker Wieland
  • University of Frankfurt and Center for Financial
    Studies
  • Conference on John Taylors Contributions to
    Monetary Theory and Policy
  • Dallas, October 12-13, 2007

2
Cast in order of appearance in this paper
  • Policy rules ( Taylors rule)
  • Inflation and output volatilities under
    uncertainty (Taylors curve)
  • Learning and policy design (Taylors dissertation)

3
Monetary policy rules and money Taylor,
Friedman, Woodford, Lucas
  • Taylors interest in developing effective rules
    for government policy has been a driving force
    for his research, cf.Taylor (2006)
  • Taylor (1979) showed that a fixed money growth
    rule a Friedman rule - would have led to better
    performance than actual policy in the post World
    War II period ... (but) a money growth rule which
    responded to economic developments could do even
    better.
  • Since then I have found that policy rules in
    terms of interest rates have worked better as
    practical guidelines for central banks.

4
Friedman (06) taking Taylors perspective with i
instead of m as instrument
  • The Taylor rule is an attempt to specify the
    federal funds rate that will come closest to
    achieving the theoretically appropriate rate of
    monetary growth to achieve a constant price level
    or rate of inflation.
  • Suppose a Taylor rule that gives 100 percent
    weight to inflation deviations. That may not be
    the right rate..because other variables such as
    output or monetary growth are not at their
    equilibrium levels.
  • ..additional terms in the Taylor rule would
    reflect variables relevant to choosing the right
    target funds rate to achieve the desired
    inflation target.

5
So add money as a right-hand-side variable in a
Taylor-style rule?
  • New-Keynesian models - No!
  • Woodford (2006) writes
  • Serious examination of the reasons given thus
    far for assigning a prominent role to monetary
    aggregates in (policy) deliberations provides
    little support for a continued emphasis on those
    aggregates.
  • Lucas (2007) expresses some concern regarding the
    increasing reliance of central bank research on
    New-Keynesian modeling.

6
Money as a cross-check?
  • Lucas (2007)
  • Money supply measures play no role in the
    estimation, testing or policy simulation of these
    models formulated in terms of deviations from
    trends that are determined off stage (they)
    could be reformulated to give a unified account
    of trends, including monetary aggregates, and
    deviations ...
  • This remains an unresolved issue on the frontier
    of macroeconomic theory. Until it is resolved,
    monetary information should continue be used as a
    kind of add-on or cross-check.

7
Our objective
  • Incorporate cross-checking with regard to
    monetary trends in Taylor-style interest rate
    rules, (Beck and Wieland, JEEA 2007).
  • Use historical output gap misperceptions to show
    that central bank beliefs cause persistent policy
    errors and drive money and inflation trends.
  • Show that monetary cross-checking improves
    inflation control by correcting repeated policy
    errors.
  • Show that monetary cross-checking even remains
    effective in case of sustained velocity shifts,
    if the central bank learns i.e. recursively
    estimates money demand allowing for shifts.

8
1. Cross-checking
  • Interest rate rule with 2 components
  • (1)
  • iT could by Taylor-style rule, or the
    interest rate policy implied by loss function
    minimization in a given model.
  • iM refers to the interest-rate adjustment due
    to cross-checking. Systematic, but infrequent,
    triggered by a statistical test of a key
    relationship!

9
Monetary cross-checking
  • Step 1 Cross-checking trend in adjusted money
    growth against the inflation target and testing
    for a mean shift
  • (2)
  • i.e. check if ?gt?crit or ?lt -? crit for N
    periods.

10
Monetary cross-checking
  • Step 2 If there is evidence for a shift then
    change interest rate levels appropriately.
  • (3)
  • ... change if ?gt?crit or ?lt -? crit for N
    periods.

11
Why cross-check with a monetary (trend) measure?
  • Why Lucas talks about trends
  • (Benati 2005)

12
Deriving the monetary (trend) measure for
cross-checking
  • (4) Money demand
  • (5) Money growth and inflation in the short-run
  • (6) Money growth and inflation in the long-run

13
The monetary (trend) measure for cross-checking
  • (7) Long-run empirics filtered adjusted money
    growth moves with filtered inflation.
  • (8) Definiton of filter as in Gerlach (2004).

14
Strategy for evaluating role of money
  • Consider 2 models (eqns in Table 1, page 11)
  • Keynesian-style model (K-model) as in Svensson
    (1997), OrphanidesWieland (2000).
  • New-Keynesian model (NK-Model) as in Clarida,
    Gali and Gertler (1999).
  • Optimal policy expressed as Taylor-style rule
  • K-Model Taylor rule with lagged inflation and
    output gap, but coefficients greater than 0.5.
  • NK Model Optimal policy under discretion
    corresponds to Taylor-style rule with inflation
    forecast and perceived demand shock.

15
Strategy continued
  • Show that in both models optimal interest rate
    policy with historical output gap misperceptions,
    leads to sustained money and inflation trends.
  • Misperception perceived potential differs from
    true value.

16
Strategy continued
  • Note, to sharpen the focus we consider a central
    bank that cares only about inflation deviations
    from a zero target. Thus, the f.o.c.is
  • Then, we apply the same policy rules in
    conjunction with monetary cross-checking.

17
Policy objective and optimal interest rate
policies
  • Policy objective
  • K-Model optimal policy under uncertainty

18
Policy objective and optimal interest rate
policies
  • NK-Model Interest rate setting implied by
    optimal policy under discretion
  • In both cases money does not matter, but
    inflation forecast depends on output gap and
    policy.

19
The Models
20
The Parameters
21
A Simple New-Keynesian Model
  • Following Clarida, Gali, Gertler (1999)
  • (1) Output gap
  • (2) Phillips
  • (3) IS
  • Note superscript e Et

22
NK Model Includes Persistent Shocks
  • (5) Persistent shocks

23
Noise and Misperceptions in NK Model
  • (9) Noise Actual shocks differ from perception

24
U.S. output gap misperceptions
Orphanides, The quest for prosperity without
inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003.
25
The Bundesbanks output gap misperceptions
Gerberding, Seitz, Worms, How the Bundesbank
really conducted policy, North American Journal
of Economics and Finance, 2005.
26
2. Money and inflation trends due to historical
misperceptions
US Orphanides, The quest for prosperity without
inflation, J.Monetary Economics, 2003. Germany
Gerberding, Seitz, Worms, How the Bundesbank
really conducted policy, North American Journal
of Economics and Finance, 2005.
27
Money and inflation trends due to historical
misperceptions
  • Central bank persistently overestimates potential
    and misperceives the output gap.
  • As a result, interest rates are set too low for a
    sustained period of time.
  • Output ends up higher than required to maintain
    price stability.
  • Money growth and inflation rise for a sustained
    period of time.

28
NK optimal interest rate with misperception
  • Persistent misperception implies that interest
    rates are set too low or too high for a sustained
    period of time.

29
K-Model US-misperceptions
30
K-Model US misperceptions Actual and perceived
output gap
31
NK-Model Bundesbank misperceptions
32
Trend measures K/NK-US/DE 1000 draws
33
3. Misperceptions and cross-checking
  • K-Model US misperception with cross-checking

34
NK model Bundesbank misperceptions with
cross-checking
35
1000 draws K/NK-US/DE with cross-checking
36
4. Cross-checking and velocity shifts
  • Monetary cross-checking deals well with velocity
    fluctuations due to ?y?y , ?i?i or ?e.
  • But what about sustained trends in velocity as
    identified by Reynard (2004) or Orphanides and
    Porter (2000, 2001).

37
Sustained velocity shift of 2 when the central
bank never revises estimates
38
Sustained velocity shift and cross-checking when
central bank learns
39
Conclusions
  • We have shown that historical central bank
    misperceptions cause money and inflation trends
    of similar extend and direction.
  • We have shown that combining the Taylor-style
    rules or model-based optimal interest rate policy
    with monetary cross-checking improves inflation
    control.
  • We have shown that monetary cross-checking
    remains effective in the presence of sustained
    velocity shifts when the central bank updates its
    money demand estimates and learns.
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