' ' , , II 10:

1
????????? ?????????? ??????

• ?. ?. ??????, ??????? ?????, ??II ????? 10 ????

2

• Chapter 10 - Asia
• Coordinating Lead Authors
• Hideo Harasawa (Japan), Murari Lal (India), Rex
  Victor Cruz (Philippines), Shaohong Wu (China)
• Lead Authors
• Yurji Anokhin (Russia), Punsalmaa Batima
  (Mongolia), Yashushi Honda (Japan), Mostafa
  Jafari (Iran), Congxian Li (China), Nguyen Huu
  Ninh (Vietnam)
• Contributing Authors
• Seita Emori (Japan), Daidu Fan (China), Hui Ju
  (China), Shuangcheng Li (China), Yoshiki Saito
  (Japan), Kiyoshi Takahashi (Japan), Tran Viet
  Lien (Vietnam), Qiaomin Zhang (China)
• Review Editors
• Daniel Murdiyaso (Indonesia), Shuzo Nishioka
  (Japan)

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???. 2 ?????????? ?????????? ????Fig. 2 Asia and
its subregions
4
???????? ???????, ??????????????? ? ????? 10
????

• ??????????? ?????? ? ????????? ???????
  ???????????, 3-?? ?????????? ??????? IPCC
• ?????? ? ??????? ????????? ????????? ??????? ?
  ????????? ???????
• ?????? ? ??????? ???????? ??????????? ?????????
  ??????? ?? ????????? ??????? (??????? ????????) ?
  ?????????-????????????? ?????????
• ????? ??????? ????????? ??????? ? ??????????
  ??????????? ????????
• ???????? ??????, ???????? ????????????????,
  ??????????? ???????????? ? ??????????

5
????. 3 ?????? ????????? ??????????? ???? ?
?????? ??????????? ????????Table 3 Recent
trends in permafrost temperatures measured at
different locations
6
??????? 1. ???????????? ???????? ???????
??????????? ??????? ? ???????????????? ????
????????? ? ????? (?? ? 100 / ???) ?? ???????? 80
? 160 ?? ?? ?????? 1961 2003 ??. (??????? ?
??., 2006)
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??????? 2. ?????????????? ? ?????????????
???????? ??????????? ??????? ? ????????????????
???? ????????? ? ????? ( ??, ??, oC) ???
??????? 1961 2003 ??. ? ????????????? ??????
?? ????????? ??? , ???, oC) ? 2020 ?. (??????? ?
??., 2006).
8
???. 6. ????? ??????? ??????????? ????? ?? (1),
????? ???????? ?????? (2), ??????-????? ?????????
?????? (3), ?????? (4), ????? ???????? ???????
(5), ???-????? ????????? ?????? (6), ??????????
? ????????? (7).
9
???. 4. ????? (? ) ????????????? ???????????
??????? (T?) ? ?????? ???????? ??????? (Hs) ?
??????????? ????????? ????????????? ???????????
???????????? ?? ??????? 160 ??1 ????? (? )
?????? ???????? ??????? ? ??????????? ?????????
????????????? ??????????? ????????????,2
????? (? ) ????????????? ??????????? ??????? ?
??????????? ????????? ????????????? ???????????
????????????, 3 ??????? 25 ??????
???????????? ???????, 4 ??????? ??????.
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???. 8. ????????????? ??????????? (?320) ??
??????? 320 ?? ?? ??????? (???? ???????????
????? ??, ??? ????? ???????? ??????, ???
??????-????? ????????? ??????, ? ??????, ???
????? ???????? ???????, ??? ???-????? ?????????
??????, ?? ?????????? ? ?????????) ??????????
?? ???? ?????????? ??? 1977 1981 ? 2001 2005
??.
11
Table 10.2 Summary of key observed past and
present climate trends and variability
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???. 3 ???????? ??????? ????????? ??????? ??????
???????? ? ???????? ????? ???? ?? 2100 ??? ??
???????? ?2 ????. F10.5Fig. 3 The projected
permafrost boundary in North Asia as a
consequence of degradation and thawing due to
climate change.

• ?????????? ?????? ???????? ????? ???????? ?
  ???????? ??????, ???????? ?????????
  ?????????????? ? ???????????? ??????????????,
  ??????? ?????????? ???????? ?????? 10.4.4
• The permafrost thawing is expected to start over
  vast territories of North Asia under the
  projected climate change scenarios. In northern
  regions, mean annual temperature of frozen rocks
  and the depth of seasonal thawing will increase.
  The change in the rock temperature will result in
  a change in the strength characteristics, bearing
  capacity, and compressibility of the frozen
  rocks.

??????????? ????? ??????? ??????
???????? ??????? ?????? ????????, ??????? ? 2100
????, ????????, ??????? ??????? ?????? ????????,
???????, ?? ?????????, ????????? ?? ?????? ??????
??????????