UFORE

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UFORE

• Overview and Process

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Overview Process I

• What is UFORE?
• Science-based computer model that quantifies
  urban forest structure, functions, and values
• Collection of analysis tools
• More at www.ufore.org
• Specialized analysis for urban ecosystems

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Overview Process

• Ecosystem
• Functional units of interacting abiotic, biotic,
  and cultural (anthropogenic) components
• Includes all trees
• Public/private
• Native/exotic/utopian
• No management of individuals, but we can
  and--many believe--must manage the population
• Population contributes to common good at much
  reduced cost/benefit ratio than street trees

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Overview Process

• Status of UFORE
• Fully operational as program
• Over 10 years in development
• FS Syracuse running in SAS code
• Direction David Nowak, Project Leader
• Programmer Dan Crane
• Being converted to desktop app (Windows)
• Conversion work occupy next few years
• Major advance for i-Tree
• UFORE shell makes projects much easier

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Overview Process

• Calculates
• Structure, e.g.
• Leaf area and biomass
• Species and DBH distribution
• Function, e.g.
• VOC emissions
• Pollution removal
• Effect on building energy use
• Total carbon stored
• Value based on structure, function

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1 metric ton (tonne) 1.10231131 US (short) ton
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Sounds like STRATUM

• Similarities
• Similar questions
• Structure, function, value
• Implications for management
• Similar goals
• Differences
• Different populations
• STRATUM street trees
• UFORE whole ecosystem
• Some differences in methods, often b/c of
  differing populations

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Overview Process

• What good is it?
• Aid planning and management
• Improve forest designs
• Project future impacts
• Assess impact of catastrophic events
• Justify programs

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Source http//www.houstonregionalforest.org/Repor
t/
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Overview Process

• How does it work?
• Uses field data to calculate structure
• Uses structure data to calculate function
• Uses function data to calculate value
• Uses value data to draw conclusions and make
  recommendations
• The Devil lurks, as always, in the details

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Does this help? (Not!)
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?????????
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3 questions

• Ask when evaluating models
• Do I understand the numbers?
• Can I trust the numbers?
• Can I use the numbers?
• I want to drill down one level in an effort to
  answer these questions, peek under the hood

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Overview Process VI

• Lets examine one relatively simple set of
  calculations CARBON
• Start with allometric¹ equations estimating
  above-ground biomass from species and DBH
• ¹ relation of the growth of a part of an
  organism to the growth of the whole
• Convert with species-specific factor
• above-ground biomass ? whole tree biomass

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Regression of DBH as predictor of biomass
http//www.greenhouse.gov.au/ncas/reports/pubs/tr0
5afinal.pdf
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Overview Process VI

• Adjustments
• 80 less biomass for open-grown urban trees than
  computed
• Based on field measurements of 30 urban trees in
  Chicago
• Nowak 1994 publication (Chicago study)
• How much of biomass is carbon?
• Stored C ? biomass x 0.5
• Chow and Rolfe 1989, et al

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Is this too MUCH??!!
http//tell.fll.purdue.edu/JapanProj/FLClipart/Adj
ectives/heavy.gif
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Overview Process VI

• Use growth and mortality rates for annual
• Start with published and/or field data for each
  species and DBH class
• Adjust growth (C storage) for
• Site (e.g., park 1.78 times less growth than
  street)
• Growing season length
• Condition of tree
• Adjust mortality (C release) for
• of condition class
• Rapid release (above ground, populated areas)
• Slow release (below ground, unpopulated areas)
• Growth - Mortality ? net annual C storage

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Overview Process VI

• Value
• Multiply net annual stored C by 20.30/tC
• Based on the estimated marginal social costs of
  carbon dioxide emissions (Fankhauser, 1994).
• Stochastic model treats uncertainties in global
  warming research/debate as random variables.
• Provides a distribution of outcomes from which
  means can be calculated.
• This dollar amount was projection for 2000.
• Rough order-of-magnitude assessment

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http//coreacademy.usu.edu/04_Materials/Clip_Art/
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Whats the point?!

• We can begin to understand and therefore trust
  the numbers
• Because of that, we can use the numbers
• Advocacy
• Strategic planning
• Action
• UFORE, like STRATUM, is a powerful tool for
  promoting sustainable management of urban forest
  resource.

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U4
Are me?