Effectsbased Coalition Operations

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Effects-based Coalition Operations

• Maris Buster McCrabb
• KSCO Symposium
• 23 April 2002

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My talk today consists of

• A brief description of the elements that comprise
  the theory of effects-based operations (EBO)
• A brief discussion on the implications of EBO for
  knowledge systems in a coalition
  (non-homogeneous) environment
• The briefest discussion on framing, beliefs and
  mechanism (I.e., my paper)
• An advertisement for the AFRL/IF EBO ATD research

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EBO in One Slide
Plan
Disrupt Delivery of POL
Effect (Results)
Objects
Mechanism (Causes)
Destroy Bridge 4
Destroy Bridge 6
Tasks (Actions)
desired behavioral outcomes.
Bridge 4 Destroyed
Mechanism (Causes)
Indicators
Objects
Bridge 6 Destroyed
Objects
Indicators
Objects
Physical effects that lead to
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Effects-Based Operations
"Effects based operations is a methodology for
planning, executing and assessing
operations to attain the effects required to
achieve desired national security objectives.
AFDD 1
Mechanism
Mechanism
(cumulative)
Mechanism
(cascading)
The challenge is predicting assessing what
physical actions produce the desired behavioral
effects over some period of time
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Operation Allied Force
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Operation Allied Force (2)
Milosevic accedes to NATOs conditions (total
Desired Effect)
Air Attacks on National C2 Targets
Air Attacks on Strategic Targets
Air Attacks on Fielded Forces Targets
Air Attacks on Military-Industrial Targets
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Operation Allied Force (3)
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Tasks for Knowledge Systems
The challenge is predicting assessing what
physical actions produce the desired behavioral
effects over some period of time
The domain Of KS?
impacts
ground truth
Organization (structure, functions, capacity)
Observations (indicators), signals, communication
Mental models, decision-making
Thanks to Yuri Levchuk, Aptima, Inc.
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Semantic Network
Thanks to Gil Kuperman, AFRL/HECA
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Implementation (Action)
Feedback
(not all shown)
Actor N
Group Decision
Models of (Complex) Causality
Thinly Shared
Shared Understanding (Mechanism)
Belief Structures (Framing)
All dimensional, multilateral
Situation Awareness
Thickly Shared
Shared through mediation
n-dimensional, bilateral
Actor B
Actor A
Models of (Simple) Causality
Models of (Complex) Causality
n-dimensional, bilateral
Belief Structures (Framing)
Belief Structures (Framing)
Situation Awareness
Situation Awareness
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AFRL EBO ATD External Relationships
Organization
Relationship

• Our sponsors
• Working technology transition via AT AOC
• Working to incorporate non-conventional EBO (IO)
• capabilities
• Models for Homeland Defense
• CRDA EBO Multi-sensor C2 Aircraft
• Leveraging TS adversary response work
• Provided FY01 funds FY02 funds planned
• Leveraging their TS models adversary response
  work
• Part of Joint EBO team
• Catalyst for JFCOM EBO Concepts

• AFC2ISRC/ESC
• AFRL/HE
• AFSAA
• Boeing
• DARPA
• JWAC
• JFCOM

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AFRL EBO Related Research Efforts

• Adversarial/Behavioral Modeling
• Basic Research Initiatives (6.1)
• Models of Defeat for EBO (UMass)
• Adversary Intent Inference for Predictive
  Battlespace Awareness (UConn)
• COA Development for Time Critical Targeting
• Applied Research Initiative (6.2)
• Effects-based COA development for TCTs
• Software agents for monitoring and alert
• Process Assessment and Metrics for EBO
• Phase II SBIR
• Assess current AOC and JTF processes for
  incorporation of EBO
• Develop MOEs, MOPs, MOMs to measure success of
  EBO
• Develop prototype Process Assessment Tool to
  automate metrics use