Vickie L' Nadolski

1
Advances in Marine and Ocean Weather Forecasting

• Vickie L. Nadolski
• NOAA Deputy Assistant Administrator for Weather
  Services

American Boating Congress Washington, D.C. April
28, 2008
2
Weather Impacts Recreational Boating
3
Boating Impacts onU.S. Economy

• 39.5 billion in annual sales and service
• 108 Billion impact on the American economy

Source NMMA
4
Weather Impacts onU.S. Economy

• One-Third of Nations GDP is weather or climate
  sensitive
• 4 Trillion in 2005

Source EconomicStatistics for NOAAApril 2006
5
Weather ImpactsRecreational Boating

• In 2006, environmentalhazards resulted in
• 621 accidents
• 123 due to weather
• 108 fatalities
• 34 due to weather
• Source U.S. Coast Guard 2006 Boating Statistics

6
NOAA Helps Ensure a Safe Boating Experience
7
NOAA Marine Forecasts
8
NOAA Marine Forecasts
NWS Headqua
r
te
r
s
Ocean Prediction Center
Tropical Prediction Center
W
e
a
ther
F
o
r
ecast O
f
fice (122)
Coastal W
e
a
ther
F
o
r
ecast O
f
fice (48)
Samoa
9
Top 10 Boating States
Source 2006 U.S. Recreational Boat Registration
Statistics
10
NOAA Marine WeatherProducts and Services
www.crh.noaa.gov/greatlakes
www.weather.gov/carolinascoast
11
Digital Marine Forecasts
www.crh.noaa.gov/greatlakes
12
NOAA Tides and Currents

• CO-OPS Operational Forecast System
• Chesapeake Bay
• Galveston Bay
• Lake Erie
• Lake Huron
• Lake Michigan
• Lake Ontario
• Lake Superior
• New York andNew Jersey
• St. John's River

http//tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html
13
Great Lakes CoastalForecasting System
http//www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/
14
NOAA WAVEWATCH III
http//polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/index2.shtml
15
Experimental Extratropical Storm Surge Height
Forecast
http//www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov
16
Experimental Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
http//www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
17
Enhanced Delivery Methods
18
Dial-A-Buoy1-888-701-8992
http//www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dial.shtml
19
National Data Buoy Center
http//www.ndbc.noaa.gov
20
SARSATLifeline to Survival
http//www.sarsat.noaa.gov
21
Safe Boating Weather Tips

• Plan Ahead
• Start accessing NWSextended outlooks
  severaldays in advance
• Before Setting Out
• Pay close attentionto the local forecast
• After Setting Out
• Stay tuned to NOAAWeather Radio AllHazards
  (NWR) or othersources of weather info.

22
The Future of Marine Weather
23
Where Were Headed

• Enhanced Capabilities
• Super resolution radar
• Airborne Doppler Radar
• Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

24
Where Were Headed

• Severe Weather
• Warn-On Forecasts Tornado warning lead time
  increases from an average of 13 minutes today to
  as much as 1 hour
• Severe Thunderstorm Warning lead time increases
  from an average of 18 minutes to as much as 2
  hours

25
Where Were Headed

• Tropical Cyclone Services
• Warning lead time for landfall increases from
  less than 24 hours to 3 days
• 50 reduction in 48 hr intensity error (8 kts)
• 50 reduction in 48 hr track error (50 nm)

26
Where Were Headed

• Forecast Uncertainty Information
• Integral and essential part of all forecasts
• Enterprise-wide partnership to generate and
  communicate forecast uncertainty to decision
  makers and public
• Expressed in terms of probabilities

27
Needed Advances in Capabilities
Results Improved Hurricane Track, Intensity and
Precipitation Forecasts Tornado and Flash Flood
Forecasts Marine, Aviation, Fire, and Space
Weather Forecasts Flood, River, andOcean
Predictions Seasonal Climate Forecasts for
Energy, Agriculture, Etc.

• Advances
• Earth Observations
• Data Assimilation
• Models
• Forecasting Techniques
• Information Technology
• Dissemination Methods

28
Working Togethertoward a common future
29
Thank You