GPEVN AGE Modeling Component: Some Preliminary Reflexions

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GPE-VN AGE Modeling Component Some Preliminary
Reflexions

• Associate Prof. Dr. Nguyen V. CHAN
• SEDEM, Hanoi, Vietnam

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Research context

• Uptodate issues in Vietnam
• Globalization/integration
• Trade liberalization, AFTA, WTO adhesion
• Poverty
• Environmental (air water) pollution, natural
  resources depletion

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Research context (cont.)

• Research works undertaken by SEDEM
• Impacts of trade liberalization and tax reforms
  (tariff, TVA) on economic efficiency and hhd
  welfare
• Labour mobility (rural-to-urban and across
  sectors)
• Projects supported by IDRC (MIMAP, PEP) by Ford
  Foundation (structuralist approach)
• EEPSEA call for collaboration

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Research context (cont.)

• AGE models built by the Wisconsin team
• Interaction between the open economy and the
  environment
• Models for Philippines, Thailand, Sri-Lanka...
• A series of issues
• Deforestation upland lands degradation
• Causes consequences of interregional migration
• Reallocation of natural resources

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Research context (cont.)

• Surveys / studies conducted by TUEBA Hue
  University
• Sharing of resaerch ideas, methods and findings
• Interaction between national local scales
• ? Towards a model for Vietnam

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How to proceed?

• Policy questions to be addressed
• Introduction of enrironment (pollution) taxes
  and/or resourse use fees?
• National / local programs / subsidies to the
  concerned areas / people
• Rural-to-urban (lowland-to-upland) migration
• in the context of joining WTO

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How to proceed? (cont.)

• What do we have?
• Existing AGE for Vietnam
• and for Asian neigbors (Thailand?)
• Data
• I/O, SAM (simplified 2-region 2-factor case?)
• VLSS
• Migration

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How to proceed? (cont.)

• Environmental data
• Air water pollution (emissions) by production
  and consumption
• Soil erosion
• Deforestation
• Resourses use / depletion

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How to proceed? (cont.)

• Software
• GAMS, GAMPACK
• Time budget constraint
• ? More working discussions

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Thank you for your attention!