Jor-Shan Choi

1
Jor-Shan Choi Professor, G-COE Project Nuclear
Engineering Management Department Tokyo
University, Japan 81-3-5841-2954 Choi_at_lnuclear
.jp 3rd Meeting of the CSCAP Study Group on
Energy Security News Plaza Hotel, Beijing,
China March 25-26, 2008
2
Presentation Outline

• Current Status
• What will the Nuclear Future be?
• Key Issues for nuclear power development
• The situation Today
• A New Vision Toward a New Nuclear Regime
• Where we might go

3
Current status

• 439 nuclear power plants
• 35 under construction
• USA 104 (1), 787.2 TWh
• France 59, 418.6 TWh
• Japan 55 (1), 266.4 TWh
• Russia 31 (7), 147.8 TWh
• China 11 (6), 62.6 TWh
• India 17 (6), 15.6 TWh
• (Parenthesis) ( of unit under construction)

Taken from Power Reactor Information
system, IAEA As of 31 December 2007
Watts Bar 2 construction resumed on 15 Oct.
2007 Lower than last year due to shutdown
of 16 BWRs Will have nuclear capacity of 40
GWs by 2020
4
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS INFORMATION
Nuclear share of electricity (2006) in the world
Taken from Power Reactor Information system,
IAEA
5
Expansion mainly in Asia
Taken from Power Reactor Information system,
IAEA
6
What will the Nuclear Future (20-40 years) be?

• I dont know and neither do you
• Need to look out 50 years
• Some rather certain trends
• Population will grow 6 billion to at least 7.5
  billion in 2020
• World primary energy needs will grow and
  electricity will grow faster
• Fossil fuels in energy production and use will
  account for vast amount of carbon emissions
• U.S. plants (nuclear and fossil) will age, and
  some will retire (38GW nuclear and 71GW fossil by
  2015 (EIA))
• 320GW of new U.S. capacity by 2015 1/3 of new
  domestic electricity plants through 2015 are
  needed simply as replacements
• Life extension of nuclear can be advantageous

7
Future energy growth
1) Increased energy demand
2) Environmental concerns
Carbon concentration
Temperatures
8
Key Issues for Nuclear Energy Development

• Economics/Financing
• Nuclear safety
• Security and proliferation concerns
• Spent fuel and waste management, environment
• PLUS
• Acceptability
• Infrastructure

9
Its the economics

• Nuclear is expensive to build, cheap to run
• New nuclear most attractive where
• energy demand growth is rapid
• alternative resources are scarce
• energy supply security a priority
• reducing air pollution and GHGs a priority
• financing can look longer-term
• low risk premium

Comparison of Energy Density 1 kWh 60 sq.m
sun light 3 kWh 1 kg coal 4 kWh 1 kg
gasoline 50,000 kWh 1 kg nat. uranium 6
million kWh 1 kg plutonium 1 kg plutonium
sun light from ½
surface area of
Singapore
GEN III Reactors Areva EPR Westinghouse
AP1000 General Electric ABWR AECL Candu
ACR1000 Others
10
Competitiveness of new nuclear plant

• For new nuclear plant to be economically
  competitive with combined-cycle natural-gas
  plants, the capital costs must be reduced, or
  natural gas price be increased, or both

Taken from Atoms for Peace after 50 years The
new challenges and opportunities, CGSR, LLNL,
December 2003.
11
Comparison of electricity generating costs
12
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS INFORMATION
Nuclear Safety

• Nuclear power generation has an excellent
  safe-operation record (as demonstrated by the
  high availability factor)
• However, the nuclear industry also experienced
  two major accidents in its operating history
  (Three-Mile Island in 1979, and Chernobyl in
  1986)
• Can these accidents happen again?
• How can a good safety culture be in-forced
  world-wide?

13
Security and Proliferation Issues

• Physical protection of nuclear installation
• Transportation of nuclear materials
• IAEA safeguards
• Spread of sensitive technologies
  (enrichment/reprocessing)
• Requirement for underground repository

14
The Situation Today

• Growing interest on nuclear power
• Spread of sensitive fuel-cycle technologies
• Research reactor fuel
• No operating HLW/SNF repositories
• Growth of SNF
• gt230,000 MT worldwide, inventory grows at
  10,000 MT/yr
• gt45,000 MT in the U.S., inventory grows at
  2,500 MT/yr
• Many countries planning on SNF disposal

What are the concerns? What are the opportunities?
15
A New Vision - A New Nuclear Regime

• Proposals
• IAEA Director General M. ElBaradei (Economist,
  10/16/03)
• US President G. Bush (Speech at NDU, 2/11/04)
• IAEA Multinational Approach (MNA) to nuclear fuel
  cycle (2/22/05)
• Others

1. J. S. Choi and T. Isaacs, Toward a new
nuclear regime, ICAPP 03 Proceedings, Apr. 2003
2. V. Reis, M. Crozat, J. S. Choi, and R. Hill,
Nuclear fuel leasing, recycling and
proliferation Modeling a global view,
Nuclear Technology, vol. 150, no.2, May 2005
3. E. Moniz, et. al, Making the world safe for
nuclear energy., a MIT paper. 4. Putin,
System of International Fuel Cycle Center 5.
World Nuclear Association, Ensuring Security of
Supply of the International Fuel Cycle 6.
Intergovernmental Working Group, Assurance of
Fuel Supply through Multilateral mechanism 7.
Japan, IAEA Standby Arrangements System for
Assurance of Nuclear Fuel Supply 8. Nuclear
Threat Initiative (NTI), 50M LEU Fuel Bank,
under IAEA Auspices 9. Global Nuclear Energy
Partnership (GNEP)
16
Forming a global network of nuclear fuel cycle
facilities
Reducing non-proliferation and waste burden

• J. S. Choi, An innovative fuel cycle concept
  with nonproliferation and waste considerations
  for small and medium sized reactors,
• International Seminar on Status and Prospects
  for Small and Medium Sized Reactors, Cairo Egypt,
  May 27-31, 2001

17
A Global Network of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities

• Is not necessarily a regional nuclear fuel cycle
  center
• Does not need to be within a national boundary
• Could be formed by framework of contractual
  agreements among companies (and countries in
  which companies are operating)
• Is intended to provide a cradle-to-grave fuel
  cycle services to countries wanting only nuclear
  electricity generation
• Nuclear fuel cycle facilities in the network must
  comply with international safety standards and
  safeguards requirements

Most fuel-cycle services are provided today
except for spent fuel storage and waste
disposal. Bilateral/multilateral cooperation are
needed to complete the network
18
Some Elements of a Vision

• Countries have access to nuclear power at market
  prices
• Nuclear fuel supplies are assured at competitive
  prices
• Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is returned to
  appropriate countries for management and disposal
  under international control
• Spread of sensitive fuel cycle technologies
  (Enrichment/reprocessing) reduced or eliminated

19
The Crucial Role of Waste Management

• Provide a secure home for
• - Excess weapons materials
• - Spent Nuclear Fuel
• Regional/international solutions driven by
  security considerations

Repositories and storage become instruments of
security, more than utility dumping grounds
20
Can a Spent Fuel Take-Back Initiative Work?

• Some Caveats
• Costs and Capacity
• Public acceptance
• Legal considerations
• Opportunities?
• Currently taking back research reactor spent fuel
  from countries receiving US-origin fresh fuel
• Could it help the acceptance of repositories if
  take-back contributes to important national
  security and international stability dimensions?

21
Where We Might Go

• A new view on repository success
• Shared fuel cycle facilities
• Fresh fuel assurances
• Spent fuel take-back or take-away
• Regional repositories
• GNEP
• ?

22
Challenges

• What are the security risks for repositories?
• What is the role of IAEA?
• Should assurances be provided to avoid the spread
  of enrichment/reprocessing?
• How to deal with concept of take-back or
  take-away?
• Is there a new bargain?
• Can we live in a nuclear have/have not world?

23
Tokyo University Global COE Program
Nuclear Non-Proliferation

• To coexist with the peaceful use of nuclear
  energy
• To identify the technological and systematic
  problems