BART Presentation

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• BART Presentation
• AASHTO Trnsport Users Group 
• 18th TEA/TUG Conference and Workshop Daytona
  Beach, FL

Ohio Department of Transportation
November 2 - 10, 2005
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What / Who is BART ?
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No, Wrong BART
Dont have a Cow Man !
ODOT NEWS
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Bid Analysis Review Team

• The sharing of BART ideas and activities with
  other agencies, departments and friends.

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BARTBid Analysis Review Team

• ODOT Office of Estimating
• Jeff Hisem Administrator
• Three person diverse group
• Tim Pritchard
• Michael Guckes
• David Buhn

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Introduction
A Single Focused Mindset can be
like a One Legged Stool
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Where does BART sit ?
Imagine

• Seat - DSS (Decision Support System)
• The data tools support and sustain the groups
  activities
• Legs - Activities
• Bid history products
• Collusion and Questionable activity detection
• Market Analysis
• Surface beneath the stool
• Activities exist upon an uneven changing
  foundation.

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Bid Analysis Review Team
DSS connects to all activities
Bid History Products
Market Analysis
Uneven Changing Ground ODOT Environment
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The Seat

• DSS (Decision Support System) database
• Necessary on-going support activities
• Data is checked, re-checked, then checked again
• Examples of data verification
• Project coordinates
• Missing rejected contract bid tabs
• Changing field definitions, i.e. spec changes,
  vendor ids
• Update approved asphalt plant aggregate pit
  info
• Vendor affiliate tracking
• Pre-qualification
• Asphalt / Aggregate inspections (QC) and approval
• Use external sources i.e. ODNR, Associations,
  Contractors

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1st Leg

• Bid History Products
• FHWA / PR45 Reports FHWA Bridge Report
• Bid History Catalog for CES and Estimator
• Historical Bid Data for Estimating
• Annual Report Summary of Contracts Awarded
• Requests for Information (Internal External)

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FHWA / PR45 Reports

• Two Quarterly Reports for the FHWA
• Projects on the NHS
• Firstly, a hardcopy report that provides
  information and s bid from the three lowest
  bidders for each project.
• Secondly, a computerized Focus report that
  provides 1) split between pavement and bridge
  and 2) amounts associated with different
  concerned commodities for each project.
• i.e. Asphalt, Excavation, Rein. Steel, Structural
  Concrete

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FHWA / Bridge Reports

• Annual Report for the FHWA
• Criteria for report
• Determine NHS bridges and Non-NHS bridges
• Only New bridge decks or removed bridge decks
• Provide Info
• Type of bridge
• Cost of bridge deck area (Sq Ft or Sq M)
• No. of Spans
• Special Conditions i.e. locations, height,
  complexity, etc.

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Bid History Catalogs

• Catalogs for CES Estimator
• DSS HIREG created
• Built using weighted averages or regression
  estimates

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Historical Bid Data

• Tool used by Estimators
• Select Item of Work and returns following
  attributes
• Project Number
• County Route Section
• Type
• Quantity
• Estimated Price
• Awarded Bid
• Low Bid
• High Bid
• Average Bid

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Historical Bid Data
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Information Requests

• External
• Contractors, OIG, AG, State Agencies, OTC
• SAS, Excel Spreadsheets, Geomedia Maps
• Quantities, Avg Pricing, Worktypes, Areas
• Internal
• Director, Construction, Accounting, Finance
• Presentations, Meetings, Projections/Forecasts
• Bundling, Asphalt Pricing, Aggregate Control,
  Market Shares, Cost Indices

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2nd Leg

• Collusion Questionable Activity Detection
• Line Item Profiles (LIPs)
• 80/20 Analysis
• Asphalt Analysis

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Line Item Profiles

• A Tool used to determine
• Unbalanced Bids
• Front- end Loading
• Complementary Bidding
• ODOTs current LIP method
• Plotting bid line items
• Any bidder whos bid amount (of each line item)
  is gt /- 1 of the total estimate of the project
  

• Sham Bids
• Inaccurate Estimates

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Line Item Profiles
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80/20 Analysis

• Collusion Pre-Test Where to look first
• Technique
• Analysis by contract work-type
• Select items of work that have 80 of in
  work-type
• Remove as-per-plan, lump sum, and each
• Statistically standardize item price information
  (Price Change/Distribution Value)
• Compare different items of work (apples to
  oranges)

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Blending Price Movement with Bidding Behavior

• Compare the nature of the median price change by
  year.
• Red flag items with too much price change from
  year to year for a given price range.

Method not effective for items with each, lump
sum or other hard-to-measure units.
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Asphalt Analysis

• Track ownership changes from 2000 to present
• Record mergers and acquisitions among paving
  firms
• Changes in bidding behavior
• Ownership of approved asphalt mfg. facilities
• Ownership of approved aggregates sources
• Search for collusion or other questionable
  behavior
• Follow Info Tech methodology

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Present Day Vendor APits/DFs and Asphalt
Facilities
Pit and Asphalt Facility Pit Only Asphalt
Facility Only
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Vendor B 2001-8/2004 Wins and Losses
Black 2004 Green 2003 Red 2002 Blue - 2001
Shelly Sands 3
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Vendor B 2001-8/2004 Wins with Number of
Bidders
Black 2004 Green 2003 Red 2002 Blue - 2001
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Single Bid Asphalt Contracts 2001-8/2004
B - contractor B G - contractor G J -
contractor J K - contractor K S - contractor
S SS - contractor SS JV - joint venture O -
Other Vendors R indicates a rejected bid
Black 2004 Green 2003 Red 2002 Blue - 2001
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3rd Leg

• Market Analysis
• ODOT Cost Index Basket of Goods Approach
• Asphalt Bundling Project
• OTC Bid Analysis

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Asphalt Project Bundling

• Scenario A single owner gains market control of
  Aggregate and/or Asphalt in a specific area
• Strategy promote more than a single bid
• Bundle (combine) similar Asphalt Projects in and
  around the market controlled area
• Locate projects to bundle near competitive
  companies asphalt facilities
• Select projects in areas with different bidders
• Cross boundaries i.e. district, county
• Increase size of project by value and/or
  quantity for economies of scale

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(No Transcript)
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Ohio DOT Cost Index

• Primary Question
• How will inflation and market fluctuations affect
  future construction costs?
• Develop an Index (FY01-FY05)
• Used bid data in DSS for analysis to create
  Laspeyres type index like Consumer Price Index
• Selected largest expenditure items for each
  commodity
• Basket of Goods Approach
• Determined composite index for each commodity
  Basket
• Developed an overall ODOT composite cost index of
  all the individual commodity indices

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Ohio DOT Cost Index Graph
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Ohio DOT Cost Index (Table)
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Ohio Turnpike Commission - OTC

• OTC
• The OTC separate from ODOT (similar operations)
• The Commission manages 241-mile toll road
  spanning Northern Ohio
• Project
• Analyze each bid item within each OTC 3-lane
  widening project
• To include all projects, bids, and items

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(Contd) Ohio Turnpike Commission - OTC

• BART
• Current work
• Develop an item master of all OTC related items
• Align pertinent data for useful future analyses
• Download all OTC data into the DSS database
• Future work
• Line Item Profiles Analysis of bidding patterns
  of projects
• Vendor Competition Analysis of competitors who
  bid on projects or why bidders did not
• Also, analysis of vendor markets, market shares
  and price analysis

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The SurfaceUneven Changing Ground

• Factors that influence BART activities
• Todays newspaper articles
• Tomorrows newspaper articles
• Collusion found in neighboring states
• Perceived inflation increases
• Inter-office collaborations
• Data availability
• Requests for information

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Wrap Up

• Summary
• DSS Database necessary starting point
• Multiple types of activities for sustainable team
• Collusion and Questionable Activity Detection
• Bid History Products
• Market Analysis
• Discussion

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