RICCI Task Force Kickoff

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RICCI Task Force Kick-off

• May 7th 2009

DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION
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Objective and Phases of the Project
Objective
NERC has recognized the continental scope of
Climate Change legislation, and because many of
the variables impact reliability on a continental
scale, it is vital that NERC, as the industrys
sponsor for bulk power system reliability,
identify reliability considerations of Climate
Change Initiatives.
Project
PHASE I
PHASE II
Conduct a technical assessment of North America,
building on the results from the Phase I report,
performing reliability assessments of the bulk
power system for selected scenarios
Provide a high level view of reliability
considerations for Climate Change issues and will
identify and categorize technical reliability
considerations
Scope of NERC-Accenture work
NERC next phase
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Scope and Conceptual Framework of Analysis (Phase
I Phase II)
External/New Drivers
Climate Change Initiatives / Scenarios
Technology Changes
Future NA Bulk Power System
Current NA Bulk Power System
Future NA Bulk Power System
Future NA Bulk Power System (Scenarios)
Evolution
Baseline Evolution Demand, Supply, TD
Investment, Standards,
Phase II
Continuity
Criteria / Dimensions of Analysis
Reliability Security Technology Investment Regulat
ion,
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Phase 1 Proposed Timeline
PHASE I
DATA COLLECTION
DATA SYNTHESIS
SCENARIO CREATION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
DATA SYNTHESIS AND SCENARIO ITERATIONS
Milestones
Submission of Revised Version
Project Kick-off
Stakeholder Kick-off
First Draft Provided for Stakeholder Review
April 27th
May 7th
Proposed May 25th
Proposed June 5th
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High Level Summary of Data Sources and Synthesis
Table of Content (TOC)
DATA COLLECTION
DATA SYNTHESIS - TOC

• Characteristics of the Grid
• Myths Legends
• Study implications
• Key Drivers
• Reliability Implications
• Way Forward (phase II)

• NERC Reports
• DOE EIA information and models, as relevant
• Material from national labs such as NETL, NREL,
  PNL, LBL, as appropriate
• Other Publicly Available Studies/information
• Task Force and other Utility developed materials
• Accenture Climate Change Initiative Results and
  other information/studies.
• Additional sources found through an Accenture
  literature search

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Extract of Reference Documentation (collection
phase in progress)

• Accenture. Accenture Executive Survey on Climate
  Change 2008, Parts I II May 2008.
• Accenture. Achieving High Performance in an Era
  of Climate Change, 2008.
• DOE. 20 Wind Energy by 2030, July 2008.
  http//www.20percentwind.org/default.aspx
• DOE. 2009 Annual Plan Ultra-Deepwater and
  Unconventional Natural Gas and Other Petroleum
  Resources Research and Development Program,
  (NETL) December 2008.
• DOE. An Interagency Roadmap for Methane Hydrate
  Research Development, (NETL) July 2006.
• DOE. Hydrogen Posture Plan An Integrated
  Research, Development and Demonstration Plan,
  (NETL) December 2006.
• EIA. Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections
  to 2030, June 2008. http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/a
  eo/pdf/0383(2008).pdf
• EIA. Impacts of a 25-Percent Renewable
  Electricity Standard as Proposed in the American
  Clean Energy and Security Act Discussion Draft,
  April 2009. http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt
  /acesa/pdf/sroiaf(2009)04.pdf
• EPRI. 2008 Update of the Profiling and Mapping
  of Intelligent Grid RD Programs, August 28,
  2008.
• EPRI. Recent EPRI RD Threads related to Grid
  Operation and Planning, April 19, 2005.
  http//phasors.pnl.gov/Meetings/2005_april/present
  ations/Lee20EIPP_EPRI_4192005.pdf
• Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Renewable
  Energy Portfolio Standards (RPS), February 6,
  2009.
• http//www.nerc.com/files/2008-Climate-Initiatives
  -Report.pdf
• IEEE PES Transactions on Energy Conversion. Key
  Technical Challenges for the Electric Power
  Industryand Climate Change, February 2009.
• Joint Coordinated System Plan (JCSP). 2018
  Summer Reliability Study Report, February 2009.
  http//www.jcspstudy.org/
• McKinsey Company. Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas
  Emissions How Much at What Cost? December 2007.
  http//www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/greenho
  usegas.asp
• National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Advanced
  Power Electronic Interfaces for Distributed
  Energy Systems, Part 1 Systems and Topologies,
  March 2008. http//www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/4267
  2.pdf
• NERC. 2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment
  2008 2017, January 27, 2009.
• NERC. Special Report Electric Industry Concerns
  on the Reliability Impacts of Climate Change
  Initiatives, November 12, 2008.
• NERC. Press Release. NERC CEO Announces Plan to
  Improve Response to Cyber and Critical
  Infrastructure Protection, July 14, 2008.
  http//www.nerc.com/fileUploads/File/PressRelease
  s/PR_071408_CIP_Letter.pdf

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Open Considerations Regarding Scenario Creation
(Preparation for Phase II)
Third Party Reference Scenarios
Create Scenarios

• Use the climate change drivers identified in
  Phase I (ex Direct Greenhouse gas caps,
  renewable objectives, EE objectives etc.)
• Select combinations of those drivers to create
  several representative scenarios
• Select meaningful ranges for each driver, based
  on legislation and perceived viability (ex 15,
  20 or 25 renewables by 2020)
• Keep other baseline factors constant (i.e. use
  third party reference for non climate change
  factors)

• Use third party reference scenarios (ex EIA)
• Analyze the assumptions and tie climate change
  assumptions back to the Phase I drivers
• Focus on analyzing the implications (what needs
  to be done to achieve this?) and consequences (on
  reliability etc.) of these scenarios

• Direct tie-in to Phase I and the build up of the
  drivers
• Focuses on climate change parameters only as
  scenario variables

• Credibility and homogeneity based on widely
  recognized references
• Less time spent modeling scenarios and more focus
  spent on implications for the grid / consequences
  for reliability

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Going Forward Expectations from this Group for
Phase I

• Share any relevant documents during the data
  collection phase
• Review the approach and the analysis results
• Provide clarification on key issues or discuss
  any finds not in line with expectations
• Discuss and validate the scenario
  development/selection
• -gt Ultimately, own the assessment and the results
  for Phase 1

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Question Answer