The Adoption of Agricultural Biotechnologies in Wisconsin

1
The Adoption of Agricultural Biotechnologies in
Wisconsin Beyond
Presented by Bradford L.
Barham, Co-Director, Program on Agricultural
Technology Studies Professor, Dept. of
Agricultural Applied Economics October
17, 2003
2
Who am I?

• An economist who works on farm household analysis
  in U.S. Latin America, studying technology
  adoption, land credit markets, and policy
  effects.
• Concerned with welfare of farm families/rural
  poor and with broader social impacts of their
  economic activity choices
• My research on agricultural biotechnology is in
  Wisconsin and the U.S.

3
What is the Program on Agricultural Technology
Studies

• Research and Extension Unit that does regular
  surveys of Wisconsin farmers
• Tracking structure of agriculture, technology and
  management practices, attitudes and experiences
  of farmers
• Regular reports, fact-sheets, updates,
  presentations, and academic journal articles

4
My Presentation Today

• Discuss current status of adoption of major
  agricultural biotechnologies in Wisconsin
• Put that analysis in a broader U.S. and global
  context
• Develop the implications and key questions that
  emerge from that analysis
• If time permits, discuss research on university
  patenting in ag-biotech life sciences

5
What are the major ag-biotechnologies that have
been commercialized in WI?

• rBST, recombinant bovine somatatropin, also known
  as bovine growth hormone
• Bt-corn, Herbicide resistant (HR) corn, and
  HR-soy
• Bt-potatoes (come and gone)
• GMO cranberries (on shelf but not in use)

6
rBST The juggernaut that wasnt

• First major agricultural biotechnology
  commercialized in the U.S. (other than a longer
  shelf-life tomato), released February of 1994
• Huge controversy over its introduction here in WI
  and in the U.S.
• Commercial release held up by Congress
• Underwent an executive review
• Released with USDA permitting states to define
  rules on labeling of milk products.

7
rBST Adoption in WI

• Wisconsin rBST adoption starts at 5 in 1994
  and by 2001 was 16, may be 18 as of 2003.
• Far below optimistic projections
• Market-side limitations
• Large-farm technology (fits in a package of other
  management practices)
• About 20 of cows in WI treated -gt 2 aggregate
  production level increase associated with rBST
  adoption.
• Juggernaut that wasnt. Same holds in U.S.

8
GMO adoption in WI

• Table 1. Adoption Rates for Bt-corn,
  
• HR-Corn, and HR-soy ()
• Year Bt-Corn Ht-Corn Ht-Soy
• 1998 20 4 29
• 1999 18 6 48
• 2000 21 11 65
• 2001 19 21 73

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Adoption of GMOs in WI

• Bt-corn stagnant at 20.
• HR-corn rising from 3 to 20.
• HR-soy the big winner, rising almost 3 fold in 4
  years, close to 80 adoption currently.
• Corn and soy rotation and refuge requirements of
  Bt-corn make for big potential for complements
  and learning among the 3 GMOs.

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Key Results - 1

• Scale bias
• Larger crop farmers more likely to adopt Bt corn
  and HR-Soy, not true for HR-corn.
• Specialization effects
• Farmers with a higher proportion of crop land in
  soy are more likely to adopt HR-soy and Bt-corn.
• Farmers with a higher proportion of crop land in
  corn are more likely to adopt Bt-corn.

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Key Results 2

• Cross effects
• - Strongest for HR-corn, where both Bt-corn and
  HR-soy adoption are strong predictors.
• - HR-corn is also a predictor of the adoption of
  the other 2 GMOs.
• - Bt-corn adoption is not a predictor of HR-soy,
  nor visa versa.

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Putting the Pieces Together

• HR-soy widely adopted
• HR-corn rising in use relative to Bt-corn
• HR-corn adoption predicted by use of the other 2
  more commonly used GMO crops
• ? HR-corn adoption accompanies the other two
  technologies perhaps for distinct reasons.

13
The Global Picture of GMO Adoption

• 3 crops account for 95 of GM acreage (soy 62,
  corn 21, cotton 12)
• U.S. accounts for 66 of GM crop acreage,
  Argentina 23, and Canada 6,
• HR-soy accounts for 50 of all soy acreage,
  Bt-cotton for 20, and Canola and Corn for about
  10 of acreage in those crops.
• Notice that the 3 major staple crops of rice,
  wheat, and corn have a negligible amount of GMO
  acreage.

14
GMO adoption world wide

• GMO adoption pattern is deep but narrow. HR
  soybeans remarkably fast adoption path, but it is
  the only winner, and the adoption of HR soy in
  the U.S. is the big story.
• This experience does not carry over to the main
  staple crops. Thus,
• Most of world agriculture, transgenic crop
  technology still has virtually no presence
  (Buttel and Hirata, 2003).

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Wisconsin and the World

• It does not always work this way, but the
  experiences documented here for the adoption of
  agricultural biotechnology are a useful fractal
  of the global scene.
• Deep but narrow scope of this technology
• Farmers view it as another tool in the kit but
  not as revolutionary.

16
Looking Ahead

• In the U.S., the main new GMO crop on the horizon
  is GM-wheat. Big battle looming there.
• The future is probably elsewhere in biotechnology
  and genomics using other tools that will improve
  varieties, often without major transgenic
  manipulations.
• Worth exploring this issue with Brent McCown and
  Bryan Renk and Tom Zinnen tomorrow.