UNDERSTANDING MASS SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY

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UNDERSTANDING MASS SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY

• Conclusion to Course

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FOCUS

• General question How strong are new democracies
  around the world?
• Specific question How solid is mass support for
  democracy? Especially in the Islamic world?
• Dataset World Values Survey, 1999-2001

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MODEL
Model Level of democracy f (Popular
support) Level of democracy Freedom House
scores on political rights (1-7) and civil
liberties (1-7) Finding I Overt lip service
not a reliable indicator of level of democracy
(necessary but not sufficient) Finding II
Tolerance, trust, activism, and
post-materialist values are stronger indicators
of stable democracy
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EMPIRICAL FINDINGS

• In median country, 92 support idea of democracy
• But in 18 societies, a majority endorse a strong
  leader who does not have to bother with elections
  or parliament
• And strong correlations emerge between FH indices
  1981-2000 and Democracy/Autocracy Index (e.g.,
  .506)

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DEMOCRACY/AUTOCRACY INDEX

• A. Democracy a good way of governing
• B. Democracy better than any other form
• C. Expert decisions best for country
• D. Strong leader who does not have to bother
  with elections or parliament
• Index (AB) (CD)

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SURVIVAL vs. SELF-EXPRESSION

• Most people can be trusted
• Very happy, quite, not very, not at all
• Homosexuality justified? (r with FH scores
  .804)
• Sign a petition?
• Materialist/Post-materialist values
• Survival/Self-expression factor scores
  correlation with FH scores 1981-2000 .830

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REGRESSION MODEL

• X Survival/Self-expression scores
• Y Freedom House ratings 1981-2000 (inverted, so
  minimum 40 and maximum 280)
• r .83

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IMPLICATIONS

• Societies in transition zone, including Mexico
• Asian societies may be more ready for democracy
  than is generally believed
• Islamic societies roughly where one would
  expect, on the basis of their level of economic
  development
• Question Why not use dummy variables?

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IMPLICATIONS (cont.)

• Causal sequence
• Economic development leads to
• Self-expression values which lead to
• Higher levels of sustained democracy
• Culture seems to shape democracy far more than
  democracy shapes culture.

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FINAL THOUGHTS WHAT HAVE WE
LEARNED, ANYWAY?
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THE THREE-PRONGED APPROACH

• Logic and principles of statistical analysis
  (lectures)
• Uses of software (sections and labs)
• Applications in political science
• Course Reader (lectures and sections)
• Student Projects (sections, labs, etc.)

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SUMMATION OF COURSE

• Questions of Measurement
• Data, Variables, Concepts
• Levels of Measurement
• Central Tendency
• Dispersion
• Issues in Research Design
• Hypotheses and Models
• Approaching the Paper Assignment

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OUTLINE (cont.)

• Categorical Data Cross-Tabulations
• The Principle of PRE
• Lambda-b and Gamma
• Chi-Square and Statistical Significance
• Interval Data Regression Analysis
• The Logic of Regression
• Interpreting Regression Coefficients
• The Meaning of Statistical Significance
• Multiple Regression
• Using Dummy Variables

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WHAT YOU CAN NOW DO

• Read professional articles in the field of
  political science
• Apply concepts of research design to your own
  work
• (quantitative or not)
• Identify questions of cause-and-effect
• Penetrate the fog of numbers and data
• Regale friends with tales of PS 30 Spring 08

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The End And Many Thanks