Epidemiology of Swine Influenza H1N1 Amman 552009

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Epidemiology of Swine Influenza H1N1Amman
5/5/2009

• Dr. Labib Sharif
• Associate Prof. Of Epidemiology
• Faculty of Veterinary Medicine
• Jordan University of Science and Technology

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Characteristics of the Epidemic/Pandemic

• The epidemic started in March 2009 in Mexico
• The virus H1N1 identified in 24/4/2009
• The new strain has genetic materials originated
  from
• Swine
• Avian
• Human

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Morbidity and Mortality

• As of 5 May 2009, 21 countries have officially
  reported 1124 cases of influenza A (H1N1)
  infection.
• Mexico has reported 590 laboratory confirmed
  human cases of infection, including 25 deaths.
• United States has reported 286 laboratory
  confirmed human cases, including one death

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Morbidity and Mortality

• The speed of spread of H1N1 is similar to
  seasonal Influenza
• The severity of disease is moderate to mild
• Case fatality ratio is Zero to 4
• Most of mortalities in Mexico are among low
  socio-economic group
• Mortalities are higher in females

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Bad and Good prediction Senario

• The disease will be spread in all parts of the
  world
• Pandemic already occurred (21 countries)
• The disease is transmitted from person to person
  (Contagious)
• Human is the natural host of H1N1
• Attack rate is relatively low

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Good Factors

• The virulence of the disease is mild to moderate
• The spread of the disease is relatively so far
  very low
• Human beings have been exposed to H1N1 virus,
• Herd immunity is relatively high since humans
  have partial immunity

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Good Factors

• Low mortalities would occurs world wide
• The winter season is over so the speed of spread
  of the disease will be low
• Effective vaccine will be produced within 6
  months
• There is effective treatment
• The world populations are taking preventive
  measures