Wind Sail

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Wind Sail
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• Zero Emission Power Plant (ZEPP)
• A (Partial) Peak Oil Solution
• Rich McClellan
• 29July04

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The Problem
Source ExxonMobil
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Fossil Fuel/Global Warming, etc.

• Fossil Fuel Greenhouse Gases
• Consequences of Peak Oil will be Negative to
  Environment
• ZEPP will be Positive.
• ZEPP Success -- Economics
• Everyone wants Green but wont pay for it.
• 1 Percent penetration of Green Power Programs.

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There is Good News

• The Problem is Solvable, Although it is not Being
  Solved.
• There is a Private Sector Opportunity
• Big problems are big opportunities, if you get in
  front..
• Department of Energy can/will Help
• National Level Technical Resources can be Applied
  at very low cost to enterprise.

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Certain ConsequencesGood Stuff

• Big Time Renewable Energy Push
• Wind Energy.
• SolarMore Expensive.
• Conservation Becomes More than Virtue
• De-Globalization.
• Average item on your dinner plate comes from 1200
  miles away
• Some stupid policies will go away.

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Stupid Policy Example
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Stupid Policy Example

• 10mpg (?)
• 60K
• 325 HP
• Tax Advantagedtax breaks as much as 38K

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VW Lupo 3L
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VW Lupo 3L

• 3 Liters/100Km78 MPG
• Real mpg not EPA. Around the World Project
  averaging 80 mpg.
• 20K
• 61hp
• 102mph Top Speed.
• Not For Sale in US

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Best Case Do Nothing Outlook

• Lower World-Wide Standard of Living.
• Developing World Improvements Blocked
• Developed World Goes Backwards.
• More polluted environment. Learn to like
• Coal fired power.
• Nukes
• Off-shore drilling
• Continual Iraq war level conflicts
• Regardless of who gets elected.

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• What do the Experts say the Solution is?

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• Matthew Simmons (Investment Banker, George W Bush
  Energy Advisor)
• "The situation is desperate. This is the world's
  biggest serious question."
• As I have said, the experts and politicians
  have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks,
  particularly while 5 of the worlds 6.5 billion
  people have little or no use of modern energy, it
  will be a tremendous jolt to our economic
  well-being and to our health - greater than
  anyone could ever imagine."
• When asked if there is a solution
• "I dont think there is one. The solution is to
  pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all
  prayers are answered, there will be no crisis for
  maybe two years. After that its a certainty."

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SoShould we All Start Praying?

• Perhaps, but also Pass the Ammunition
• We can make a Difference.

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• Innovation occurs when there is no alternative
• ..We are rapidly approaching no alternative

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How To Proceed?

• DO SOMETHING
• .Solve Whatever part of Problem that can be
  Solved.

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What wont work

• Return to Land movement
• Skills lost, wont support population.
• Dependence on Conservation
• Vital, but doesnt solve problem.
• Off-shore Oil, Coal, Nuclear
• May have role to play, but wont solve problem,
  has consequences.
• Ethanol --more energy to produce
• Biodiesel, Burning Garbage --good conservation
  methods
• Million-MPG Carburetors, Gazing at crystals,
  Waiting for Aliens to Land, etc.
• Be prepared for a bunch of this

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What We Cant Wait For

• New Breakthrough Energy Technologies
• Zero Point Power, Cold Fusion
• (Real) Fusion
• Low Cost Solar Cells.
• Research on all should be pursued, but we cant
  bet the farm.
• Must proceed with Todays Technology.

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A Word on Solar

• Photovoltaic Mfg Energy Intensive
• Cost will go up with Increased Energy Cost.
• PV currently makes sense in small installations.
  May continue to.
• .Only Today Renewable Bulk Energy Source is
  Wind

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What is the Solution

• Conservation of Fossil Energy. Use Less.
• Not a Solution, but buys time.
• Displacement of Fossil Fuel Based Energy
• Wind is only large scale today technology,
  quite good.
• Solar (PV) is Costly at Large Scale
• Again, not a Solution, but buys Time.
• Replacement of Oil as Base Energy Source
• What we are Here to Talk About.

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Displacement Wind/Solar

• We are spending 90B (/-)/yr in Iraq. 90B/yr
  90,000 MW/yr of wind power. In 5-10 years, we
  would be awash in wind generated electricity.
• Not an either/or but to quantify the investment.
  We could do it.

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Is Wind/Solar the Solution?

• Not by Itself. The Wind doesnt Always Blow and
  the Sun doesnt always shine.
• Without Storage Wind/Solar Energy is an Extension
  of, not a Replacement for Fossil Fuel.
• Wind/Solar without Storage is a (Necessary)
  tactic, but is not a Solution.
• Solution requires Storage. Note Fossil Fuel
  is Stored Solar Energy.

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How to Store Wind/Solar?

• Candidates
• Batteries
• Small Scale OK, efficient, costly, heavy, low
  energy density. Recycling problems.
• Pump Water up Hillstore in lakes
• Good where there are lakes and hills.
  Centralized solution, good only for large scale
  requires distribution.

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How to Store Wind/Solar?

• Candidates
• 3) Flywheels, Ultracapacitors
• Small Scale OK, efficient, costly, heavy, low
  energy density.
• 4) Hydrogen
• Scalable, no recyclable problems, great energy
  density by weight, poor by volume.
• Large Scale Method of Choice

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• Isnt this the Hydrogen Economy that is
  Going Nowhere?
• ..Yes, but lets look at why.

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H2 Economy Problems

• Three Big Problems
• H2 Too Expensive
• Electrolysis requires expensive electricity
  (generated from non-renewable sources)
• Most H2 Generated from NG
• Solution Generate H2 from excess wind/solar
  energy.

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H2 Economy Problems

• 2) No H2 Pipelines.
• Problem created by Centralized Production Model
  Appropriate to Oil Field/Hydro/Nuclear.
• Solution Distributed Production.

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H2 Economy Problems

• 3) Storage too Heavy and Bulky.
• Problem Created from Focus on Automobile.
• Secondarily by focus on Hummer class Autos.
• Solution Dont try to Replace the Auto First
• Solve what you can.

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What Can be Done Right Now?

• Zero Emission Power Plant (ZEPP)
• Stationary, Self Contained, Wind Turbine Electric
  Power Generation. Scalable from Residence to
  Community size
• Wind Turbine Stores Excess Energy in H2
• Electric Generation Fuel Cell, ICE,
  Microturbine.
• No Fossil Fuel Input.

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What Can be Done Right Now?

• Zero Emission Power Plant (ZEPP)
• H2 Source for other uses (autos, for instance)
• Distributed, no pipeline
• Byproductspure water, heat.
• No greenhouse gases

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What Can be Done, Right Now?

• Wind Power is Available and Mature.
• Power Levels from 100W to 3-5MW.
• H2 Generation (Electrolysis) is Commercial
  Technology
• Direct Conversion of H2 to Electricity (fuel
  cells) well known (invented 1839), but expensive
• Storage. Compact Storage for mobile applications
  is a problem stationary storage is simple.
• Conversion to mechanical energymicroturbines,
  Internal Combustion Engines. Straightforward.

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ZEPP
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Wind Power
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MSRC 30KW Wind Turbine
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Fuel Cell
2.5KW Available Fuel Cell
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MSRC Electrolysis Unit
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The Question

• If it is such a great idea, and everything is
  available now, why cant you buy one at Home
  Depot?
• Simple Answer Economics

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Simple Economics- Zepp vs Small Diesel

• Small Diesel (5KW)
• Cost 2500 lasts 10K hours
• Oil, filters, etc. 25 every 50 hours
• Diesel at 0.4 lb per hp 0.07 Gal/kw-h (/-_
• Cost/kw-h 0.03 (maint. and replacement)
• 0.07 X Diesel cost per gallon ()

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Simple Economics- Zepp vs Small Diesel

• ZEPP (5KW 24/7)
• Cost 100K Most Lasts Indefinitely
• Minimal Maintenance. Compressors?
• Assume same as Small Diesel (0.03/hr)
• Wind energy input is free
• Cost/kw-h 0.03 (maint. and replacement)

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Simple Economics- Zepp vs Small Diesel

• Questions
• How many kwh (at Various Diesel Prices) to pay
  back 100K?
• How Many Years Does that take?
• How long if ZEPP cost drops to 50K?
• How much does a (retail) kwh have to cost to pay
  back in 5 years?

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Time to Pay Back ZEPP
Yrs
ZEPP Cost
Diesel Cost
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ZEPP vs PGE

• To pay off 100K ZEPP in Five yrs.
• PGE 100K/8760x5x5 0.03
• 0.50/kwh
• .Already at that level in parts of Japan.
• .Drops to 0.25 if ZEPP costs 25K
• .0.25 marginal rate in CA

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Economics Summary

• ZEPP Cost Competitive at 5-10/gal diesel
• Lower ( 3-6/gal?) with volume production.
• 5KW size is probably not optimumcompetitiveness
  will improve with scale.
• ZEPP will Compete with Retail Electricity with a
  2-3X increase per kw-h.

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Economics Summary

• If you dont believe that diesel will reach
  5-10/gal in the foreseeable future, you are not
  interested.
• Or, if you believe that other solutions (nuclear,
  etc.) will work.

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Disclaimer for the Bean Counters

• The preceding analysis mixes up price, cost,
  retail and wholesale, to some extent.
• Conclusion that a renewable energy based power
  plant is economically in the ball park in the
  post Peak Oil environment is still valid.

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Another Disclaimer

• Various Incentives May Make ZEPP more Attractive
• Greenhouse Gas Emission Credits
• Old Power Plants dying and have to be
  ReplacedEconomics may be different
• Etc. Renewable Energy is being (weakly)
  Encouraged.

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• What Can We Do?
• And
• Why Should We do it?

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What Can We Do?

• Develop the ZEPP Intellectual Property. Have it
  Ready To Go

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Why Should We do it?

• If Predictions are correct Effects of Peak Oil
  will Develop Rapidly
• Price will go up quickly--Consider Consequences
  Saudi Arabian Civil War.
• Being able to hit the Road Running with a ZEPP
  (and owning IP) will be extremely valuable.

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Business Case

• Entirely a Gamble on Rapid (in Real Energy Costs.
• ZEPP at 40/bblsell few into Remote Site
• The Question
• What will you Invest in When oil is 80/bbl?
• Why not Now?

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IP

• No Fundamental Breakthroughs Required
• Lots of Engineering
• For a 24/7 KW how much
• Wind Energy do you need?
• How much storage to provide 99 percent?
• Fuel Cell/Microturbine/ICE
• Etc. Etc.

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Three Phase Plan

• Phase One Engineering
• Design, Simulate a prototype ZEPP (5KW?)
• Identify Sources
• Begin IP Fence. Patent filings.
• One Year 300-500K

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Three Phase Plan

• Phase Two Pilot Plant Build
• Site, Build and begin Operation of Phase One
  ZEPP.
• Continue IP Fence. Patent filings.
• One Year 1M

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Three Phase Plan

• Phase Three TBD
• Productize Phase Two ZEPP
• or
• Design Second Generation
• Higher Power Level?
• One Year 1M
• Peak Oil may be Occurring

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Wind Sail