Providing Resource Planning Guidance to Individual Utilities

1
Providing Resource Planning Guidance to
Individual Utilities

• PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting
• April 26, 2007

2
Objectives

• Use the regional standard to provide non-binding
  guidance to individual utilities to aid them in
  their resource planning processes
• Must not trample on the jurisdiction of states
  or prerogatives of individual utilities in
  planning and acquiring resources to meet load

3
Steering Committees Charge

• Develop a simple rule of thumb process to
  convert regional energy and capacity targets into
  useful values for utilities.
• Utilities can use this process as a general
  screening tool but will continue to use their own
  methods to develop resource plans.

4
Guidance for Energy Planning

• Primarily for hydro-based utilities
• Must have sufficient resources to meet the
  average annual demand
• Counting critical hydro generation
• Including a conservative estimate for spot market
  supply and other non-firm resources
• Resulting in no more than a 5 LOLP

5
Guidance for Capacity Planning

• Primarily for thermal-based utilities
• Must have sufficient resources to
• Maintain hourly operating reserves
• Meet peak duration period load deviations for a
  1-in-20 year temperature event
• Resources include a conservative estimate for
  spot market supply and other non-firm supplies
• Resulting in no more than a 5 LOLP

6
Developing a Rule-of-Thumb Process

• Need to take into account dependence on
• Non-firm hydro and hydro flexibility
• Spot market supply
• Other non-firm resources
• Each utilitys targets will likely vary from the
  regional targets

7
Form for a Rule-of-Thumb Method

• Determine the percent of non-firm to firm hydro
• Determine the desired dependence on the market
• Determine the desired dependence on IPPs (or
  in-region market)
• R function (non-firm hydro, market, IPP)
• Utilitys FIRM resources (1 R) Load

8
Regional Dependence onNon-firm Resources

• 3,000 MWa of in-region IPP generation
• 1,500 MWa of spot market supply, hydro
  flexibility and other non-firm resources
• Non-firm resources 4,500 MWa or about 20 of
  the regional load
• Regional firm resource 80 firm load