Inductive reasoning problems

1
Inductive reasoning problems

• 18 16 14 ?? ??

12
10

• 7 8 16 17

25
26

• 4 8 5 10

7
11
14

• 720 120 24

6
2
1

• 2 3 10 12

13
21
20
30-39
2000
22 - 29
200-399
Need to break out of mental set
2
EVEN ? CONSISTENT ODD ? INCONSISTENT
VOWEL? INDETERMINATE CONSONANT ? INDETERMINATE
EVEN?INDETERMINATE ODD ? INDETERMINATE
VOWEL? INCONSISTENT CONSONANT ? CONSISTENT
Most people pick these two Confirmation Bias
3
Estimating Probabilities

• Are you more likely to die from
• all accidents (55,000) or strokes (102,000)?
• electrocution (500) or asthma (920)?
• motor vehicle accidents (27,000) or cancer of the
  digestive system (46,400)?
• lightning (52) or appendicitis (440)?
• homicide (9200) or diabetes (19,000)?
• Numbers indicate deaths per 100 million people

Availability Bias
4
Estimating Probabilities

• Carol is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very
  bright. As a student, she was deeply concerned
  with issues of discrimination and social justice,
  and also participated in antinuclear
  demonstrations.
• What is the probability that Carol is a feminist
  bank teller?
• What is the probability that Carol is a bank
  teller?

Representativeness
5
A man walks into a bar

• A man who wanted a drink walked into a bar.
  Before he could say a word he was knocked
  unconscious. Why?

Need to break out of mental set
6
How Can You

• You are alone in a room with two strings hanging
  from the ceiling. The strings are two far apart
  for you to grasp them both simultaneously. Your
  job is to tie the two strings together. Your
  only tool is a pair of pliers. How can you
  accomplish the job?

Functional Fixedness