Magnus Ebo Duncan

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Revised GDP Estimates for 2008

• Presented by
• Magnus Ebo Duncan
• On 30th April 2008

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Outline of the presentation

• GDP and its importance
• Types of GDP estimation
• Compilation Estimation of GDP by the Production
  Approach
• Schedule of updates
• Revised estimates for 2008

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What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?

• The total value of the final goods and
  services produced in the country during a given
  period, usually one year

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Importance of GDP

• To measure the performance of the economy in a
  given time period
• To compare the level of performance from year to
  year
• To assess the performance of the various sectors
  of the economy

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Measurement Approaches

• Production Approach
• Expenditure Approach
• Income Approach

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Generation and Use of National Income
Domestic private savings
Factor Markets
Wages rents
Factor cost
Govt savings
Taxes
Intermediate demand
Firms
Households
Government
Save/Invest
Transfers
Govt exp.
Invest. exp.
Private cons.
Product Markets
Sales revenues
Domestic demand for final goods
Import payments
Export receipts
Foreign savings
Rest of world
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Compilation estimation of GDP by the Production
approach
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MAIN AND SUB SECTORS FOR THE GDP COMPILATION
AGRICULTURE   Crops and Livestock Cocoa
Production and Marketing Forestry and Logging
Fishing
INDUSTRY Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Electricity and Water
Construction
SERVICES   Transport, Storage and
Communication Wholesale and Retail Trade,
Restaurants and Hotels Finance, Insurance, Real
Estate and Business Services Government
Services   Community, Social and Personal
Services Producers of Private Non- profit
Services
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Main and sub sectors for the GDP compilation

• 1. AGRICULTURE  
• Crops and Livestock
• Cocoa Production and Marketing
• Forestry and Logging
• Fishing  
• 2. INDUSTRY
• 2.1 Mining and Quarrying
• 2.2 Manufacturing
• 2.3 Electricity and Water
• 2.4 Construction  
• 3. SERVICES  
• 3.1 Transport, Storage and Communication
• 3.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and
  Hotels
• 3.3 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business
  Services
• 3.4 Government Services  
• 3.5 Community, Social and Personal Services
• 3.6 Producers of Private Non- profit Services

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Sources of Data

• administrative records (Public and Private
  Enterprises, MDAs)
• Surveys (Households and Specific)
• Censuses

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Sources of Data Agricultural Sector

• Data on crop production - Statistics, Research
  and Information Division (SRID) of MOFA
• Data on livestock production - Animal Health
  Production Department
• Cocoa production marketing - COCOBOD
• Data on forestry logging - Forestry Commission
• Data on Fishing - Fisheries Department

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Sources of Data Industrial Sector

• Mining Quarrying
• Mines Department and Minerals Commission
• Precious Minerals Marketing Company
• Electricity and Water
• Electricity Company of Ghana Ltd
• Volta River Authority
• Ghana Water Company Ltd

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Sources of Data Industrial Sector (Cont.)

• Manufacturing a combination of
• Information from the Ghana Living Standard Survey
• VAT data
• Financial Statements of Selected Establishments
• Construction
• Ghacem Ltd and Diamond Cement
• Imports
• VAT data

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Sources of Data Services Sector

• Wholesale Retail Trade, Hotels Restaurants
• Commodity flow
• VAT data
• Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS)
• Transport and Communication
• Major transport companies
• DVLA
• Ghana Post, Vodafone, Scanscom, Millicom, Kasapa

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Sources of Data Services Sector (Cont.)

• Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Business
  Services
• Banks
• Insurance Companies
• VAT

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Sources of Data Services Sector (Cont.)

• Government Services
• Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning
• Ministry of Local Government
• Bank of Ghana
• Controller and Accountant Generals Department

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Sources of Data Services Sector (Cont.)

• Community, Social Personal Service
• Ghana Living Standard Surveys (GLSS)
• VAT data
• Producers of Private Non-Profit Services
  (NPISH)
• Religious Organizations
• Civil Society Organizations
• TUC

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Valuation of GDP

• GDP at Current Prices (Nominal GDP)
• GDP at Constant Prices (Real GDP)

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GDP at Current Prices

• GDP computed at the prevailing market prices of
  the given year
• This is also referred to as the nominal GDP

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GDP at Constant Prices

• The GDP at current prices deflated to a given
  base year prices
• Using the appropriate price indices (e.g. CPI,
  PPI, Exchange Rate Index, Minimum Wage Index
  etc.)
• Currently, the base year for the constant
  estimates of Ghanas GDP is 1993

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-Projected -provisional-Revised-final

• TYPES OF ESTIMATES

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Projected Estimates

• They are made for future periods where economic
  activities have not taken place or no data on
  activities are available
• The estimates are made based on
• government policies and decisions
• Trend analysis and other economic models
• assumptions (eg. weather)

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Provisional Estimates

• Any changes made to the projected estimates,
  using data which cover about half of the year
  under consideration
• Provisional estimates are normally ready by
  September

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Revised Estimates

• Revision of the provisional figures is based on
  full year data for most of the sub-sectors.
• The revised GDP is normally ready by April of the
  subsequent year (for e.g. Revised GDP estimates
  of 2007 were generated in April 2008)

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Final Estimates

• The estimates are designated final when data
  for all the subsectors for the year under
  consideration are used to make adjustments in the
  revised estimates.

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• REVISED ESTIMATES FOR 2008

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Real GDP Growth Rate in the Agriculture Sector
-2008
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Real Growth in the Industry Sector - 2008
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Real Growth in the Services Sector - 2008
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Revised GDP estimates - 2008
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Final GDP Estimates for 2007(Millions of GH
Cedis)
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Revised GDP Estimates for 2008 (Millions of GH
Cedis)
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Major Indicators
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• WAY FORWORD

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Planned Activities

• Rebasing of the national accounts
• - Changing the base year from 1993 to a more
  recent year
• - Compilation of the GDP by Expenditure Approach
• - Compilation of more national accounts
  aggregates
• Quarterly National Accounts
• Quarterly Economic Bulletin

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Acknowledgement

• The Government Statistician wishes to extend her
  sincere thanks to all stakeholders, who in
  diverse ways, provide inputs for the compilation
  of the national accounts.
• THANK YOU

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