Technology Roadmapping

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Technology Road-mapping

• Week 4 course 519

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Outline

• Who can roadmap
• How old is the concept
• Differing typologies
• The Process

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Technology Road Mapping Definition

• Technology Road mapping (TRM) is the first tool
  that was designed to put technology in the
  strategic process of a firm, government or
  Industry
• TRM is a needs-driven technology planning process
  to help identify, select and develop technology
  alternatives in order to
• satisfy a set of product technology platform
  needs
• Determine the maturity of a technology
• Determine the pan industrial nature of the
  technology
• Compare current resources to the needs of a
  technology base

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Definition continued (Process)

• It brings together a team of experts to develop a
  framework for organizing and presenting the
  critical technology-planning information to make
  the appropriate technology investment decisions
  and to leverage those investments. Given a set of
  needs, the technology road mapping process
  provides a way to develop, organize, and present
  information about the critical system
  requirements and performance targets that must be
  satisfied by certain time frames. It also
  identifies technologies that need to be developed
  to meet those targets. Finally, it provides the
  information needed to make trade-offs among
  different technology alternatives

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Technology Roadmaps are

• Living Documents

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Types of Roadmaps

• Two types of Categories
• All roadmaps a combination of category I and II
• Category I
• Disruptive technology roadmap vs. Sustaining
  technology
• Category II
• Industry, Firm, Government or region

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Sustaining Technologies

• Technologies that support the current technology
  product paradigm
• Better faster cheaper along the same paradigm
• ITRS Semiconductor Roadmap
• The International Roadmap for Semiconductors
  (ITRS), 2001 ed. Available at http//public.itrs.
  net/Files/2001ITRS/Home.htm.

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Sustaining Technology
Technology Lifecycle
Natural limit to technology
Slow finish, nearing limit
Critical Dimension
Region of Maximum Rate of Progress
Critical dimension necessary for functionality
Slow start, No Knowledge
Time
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Disruptive Technology

• A technology is considered disruptive when its
  utilization generates products with different
  performance attributes
• The technology does not support either current
  industry standard technology product paradigms
• Disruptive technologies promise considerable
  opportunities for early and strong entry into
  existing and new markets,
• Involve a high risk of failure, due to customer
  resistance.
• Technology road mapping decreases the risk

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Disruptive technologies
Competitive Technology Lifecycle
Critical Dimension
Traditional technology
Emergent technology
Time
Ex Vacuum tubes v. transistors Sail v.
steamships
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The Road mapping Process

• First we provide the road mapping process for a
  firm ( thats what we do) for
• Sustaining technologies
• Disruptive technologies

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Figure 1. The three phases in the technology
roadmapping process.
 
Phase I Preliminary Activity

• Satisfy essential conditions
• Provide leadership/sponsorship
• Define the scope and boundaries

Phase II Development of the Technology Roadmap

• Identify the "product" that will be the focus of
  the roadmap
• Identify the critical system requirements and
  their targets.
• Specify the major technology areas
• Specify the technology drivers and their targets.
  
• Identify technology alternatives and their time
  lines.
• Recommend the technology alternatives that should
  be pursued.
• Create the technology roadmap report.

Phase III Follow-up Activity

• Critique and validate the technology roadmap
• Develop an implementation plan
• Review and update

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Some examples

• Aluminum Industry Technology Roadmap, 1997.
  Available at http//www.oit.doe.gov/aluminum/pdfs
  /techroad.pdf.
• Intel roadmap
• See attachment
• Semiconductor Roadmap

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Sustaining Technology
Technology Lifecycle
Natural limit to technology
Slow finish, nearing limit
Critical Dimension
Region of Maximum Rate of Progress
Critical dimension necessary for functionality
Slow start, No Knowledge
Time
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Figure 2. A Multi-tiered Visual output of a
Technology Roadmap
Markets Systems Components Technology
Time
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Disruptive technologies

• Much harder
• Must look at all tech substitutes
• MANCEF roadmap series

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Figure 8. Disruptive Technology Industry
Roadmapping Process
 
Phase I Preliminary Activity

• Satisfy essential conditions
• Provide leadership/sponsorship from multiple
  segments of value chain
• Define the scope and boundaries
• Understand the nature of disruptive technologies
  

Phase II Development of the Technology Roadmap

• Identify promising Technology-Product" paradigms
• Develop Holy Grail Grand Challenges
• Identify and categorize major technology pathways
• Specify relative technologies infrastructure
  positions
• Specify nomenclature and glossary activities,
  mini-roadmap standards
• Identify specific technology segments for
  mini-roadmaps
• Create ability for others to utilize output for
  their own roadmaps
• Create the technology roadmap report.

Phase III Follow-up Activity

• Critique and validate the technology roadmap
• Develop an implementation plan
• Review and update
• Seek transition timing to Sustaining Roadmap

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Figure 4 Technology Transition and MEMS
Mn
M3
M2
M1
Critical Dimension
TN
T3
T2
T1
Time
T1 T n
Traditional technologies
M1.M n
MEMS technologies
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Figure 5. Infrastructure Model for Disruptive
technologies
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Figure 5. Placement of Generic MEMS technology
on Infrastructure Model for Disruptive
technologies
Non-IC like MEMS manufacturing
IC like MEMS manufacturing
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Figure 7 MEMS Innovation Process
Traditional MEMS Pressure Sensors Grand
Challenge Markets (BioMems, Optical Switching)
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Roadmap as a Living Document
Table 1 Roadmapping process phase Condition
satisfied Phase I Preliminary activity Satisfy
essential conditions Yes Provide
leadership/sponsorship Yes Define the scope
and boundaries Marginally Review and update.
Ongoing
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Phase II Development of thetechnology roadmap

• Road mapping process phase Condition satisfied
• Identify the product nearly impossible .
• Identify the critical system yes
• requirements and their targets. yes
• Specify the major technology areas. Yes
• Specify the technology drivers
• and their targets. Nearly impossible
• Identify technology alternatives
• and their timelines Yes
• Recommend the technology
• alternatives that should be pursued. Yes
• Create the technology roadmap report. Yes

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Phase III Follow-up activity

• post C3
• Critique and validate the technology roadmap. Yes
  t1.14
• Develop an implementation plan. Yes t1.15