Environment problems and possible responses Sept 2006

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Environment problems and possible responses
Sept 2006
Richard Cumpston
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Global warming from greenhouse gases

• Increased quantities of carbon dioxide in the
  upper atmosphere reflect more radiant heat,
  warming the climate
• Methane, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide are
  some of the other gases with similar effects
• 1 tonne methane 21t CO2 equivalent

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Tonnes of CO2 per person from fossil fuels
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Conflicting data on CO2 from fossil fuels

• The US Department of Energy figures are 3 to 4
  times higher than those on p253 of Al Gores An
  inconvenient truth (2006)

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Carbon dioxide concentrations
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Methane from Siberian thaw lakes

• 3.8 Mtonnes methane a year, up by 58 since 1974
  from deposits 35,000 to 43,000 years old
• Walter et al, Nature 443, 71-75 7/9/06

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(No Transcript)
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IPCC emission scenarios

• warming at sea level projected to be in the
  range of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius between 1990
  and 2100
• (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
  2001, www.ipcc.ch)

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Sea surface temperatures follow air
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Major hurricanes reflect SSTs
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Poor fits by hurricane models

• While Emmanuels model suggested a 5 increase
  in peak winds with a 1 degree C warming, his
  analysis showed a 10 increase in peak winds with
  little more than half a degree C warming.
• Lenart M Southwest Climate Outlook June 2006
  pp4-6

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Increases in major cyclones?

• Landsea argues that researchers have gotten
  better at detecting hurricanes he has little
  faith in the data used to assess global increases
  in cyclone strength, such as that used in the
  analysis that made headlines in 2005
• Lenart M Southwest Climate Outlook June 2006
  pp4-6

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Antarctic ice
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West Antarctic Larsen B
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• Glaciers on the Antarctic peninsula sped up
  dramatically following the collapse of Larsen B
  ice shelf in 2002. Ice shelves on the peninsula
  have decreased by more than 5,200 square miles in
  the past three decades.
• University of Colorado 2/3/06

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• Melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet alone
  which is about eight times smaller than the East
  Antarctic ice shelf - would raise global sea
  levels by more than 20 feet
• British Antarctic Survey

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Greenland could add another 20 feet

• The West Antarctic ice sheet is virtually
  identical in size and mass to the Greenland ice
  dome, which also would raise sea levels worldwide
  by 20 feet
• Al Gore An inconvenient truth p 190 2006

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Persons displaced by 20 ft sea rise

• Beijing 20m
• Shanghai 40m
• Calcutta Bangladesh 60m
• Sydney foreshore?
• An inconvenient truth pp 204-207 2006

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Optimal coral habitats

• gt4.0 calcium carbonate optimal (green)
• 3.5-40 adequate (light blue)
• 3.0-3.5 marginal (blue)
• lt3.0 extremely low (deep blue)
• USGCRP

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Coral habitats 2000
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Much worse coral habitats 2050
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Emerging or resurgent diseases

• Hantavirus, machupo virus, arenaviridae,
  coronavirus, dengue fever, Lyme disease, Marburg
  haemorrhagic fever,legionnaires disease,
  influenza, niphavirus, tuberculosis
• An inconvenient truth pp 204-207 2006

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Consequences for Australia by 2030

• Temperature increases of 0.4 to 2.0C
• 10-15 increase in days over 35C
• 10-80 decrease in days below 0C
• Up to 15 less annual rainfall in southeast
  Australia
• Greater evaporation, reducing river flows
• Stronger tropical cyclones (CSIRO)

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Consequences for hydro power

• Reduced stream flows will reduce runoff into
  dams, giving less power for sale
• Environmental flow requirements may still have to
  be met
• Peak power may be more valuable in summer

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Developments in the last 2 years

• Rapid rises in oil, gas and coal prices
• Increasing unrest in Middle East
• Hurricane Katrina and Cyclone Larry
• Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development
  and Climate

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Brent oil spot price FOB
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US gas wellhead prices
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Hurricane Katrina

• 6th strongest Atlantic hurricane recorded
• Highest wind speed 280 kph
• Category 3 in SE Louisiana, flooded 80 of New
  Orleans
• Killed 1600, damage US75b
• Greater awareness of climate change?

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Cyclone Larry

• high category 4, not quite 5 on par with
  Cyclone Tracey (Geoff Love, BOM)
• looking at the globe the number of intense
  tropical cyclones has increased over the last 30
  years linked probably to the rising ocean
  temperatures (Brian Beard, BOM)
• Banana trees blow over in moderate winds
• Roofs blow off if not properly secured

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Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development
and Climate

• Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea, US met
  Sydney 11-12/1/06
• Represent around half the worlds emissions,
  energy use, GDP, population
• Australia will invest 100m over 5 years, 25
  earmarked for renewable energy
• Acceleration of technology collaboration
  between governments, business research
  organisations

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Australian Conservation Foundation

• has not given business the incentives it needs
  to invest in clean energy Australia should
  consider the extent to which a nuclear energy
  industry can substantially reduce our overall
  greenhouse gas footprint Don Henry

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Emissions by generator type

• tonnes of CO2e per MWh output

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Generator types

• Coal
• Cheap
• Plentiful Fuel
• Relatively Dirty
• Lifetime Ownership cost
• 26-45/MWh

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Generator types

• Gas (combined cycle)
• Cheap
• Reasonably Plentiful Fuel
• Cleaner
• Lifetime Ownership cost
• 38-55/MWh

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Generator types

• Hydro
• Capital intensive
• Fuel cheap, not always regular
• Other water requirements
• clean
• Lifetime Ownership cost
• 50-300/MWh

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Generator types

• Landfill, Biomass
• Capital intensive
• Fuel finite, but cheap (waste products)
• can be gt100 clean
• Lifetime Ownership cost
• 45-70/MWh

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Generator types

• Wind
• Capital intensive
• Fuel variable, but free!
• 100 clean
• Lifetime Ownership cost
• 65-95/MWh

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Generator types

• Solar
• Capital intensive
• Fuel variable, but free!
• 100 clean
• Lifetime Ownership cost
• gt100/MWh

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Generator types - an idea...

• Solar Tower
• Very Capital intensive
• Fuel free!
• 100 clean
• Lifetime
• Ownership
• cost
• 70/MWh
• ?

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Lifetime ownership costs, /MWh

• cheapest generators ltgt highest emitters!

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A National Greenhouse Gas Trading Scheme

• Parer panel recommended emissions trading
  (December 2002)
• places an economic cost of emission/value of
  clean air
• All industry sectors participate
• Exemptions for the traded good sector

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Form of emissions trading

• Emission permits Allocate or Auction?
• Do this one time, or annually?
• What is the penalty for non-compliance?
• Does the direct emitter or end user participate
  in the scheme?

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Shell view on emissions trading

• we supported NZ introduction of carbon tax
  but revenue should be deployed for the benefit of
  the environment market system more efficient
  better to participate in emissions trading scheme
  and learn from experience must be
  Australia-wide Tim Warren CE Shell
  Companies Australia 20/2/06

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Merit order in NEM
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CO2 prices to change merit order

• a price of about 25 per tonne of CO2 would be
  needed before substantial change in the merit
  order occurs that is, before imported black
  coal generation is displaced by gas-fired
  generation located in Victoria Allen Consulting
  2004 p170

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Most significant developments in last year

• The push for clean and green
• Asia pacific partnership
• The 500m federal government Low Emissions
  Technology Fund
• Nuclear power and uranium mining now firmly part
  of the energy debate as a low emission
  generation option (Andrew Burge 29/3/06)

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Woodlawn Wind Farm

• 25 wind turbines of 2 MW capacity each
• Great Dividing Range, east of Lake George
• With Collexs Woodlawn Bioreactor and Pylara
  agricultural properties
• Hub height up to 78m, 3 blades of 40m

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Partners in Woodlawn

• ActewAGL
• ANZ Infrastructure Services
• Collex (waste management industrial services)
• EHN (Oceania) Pty has installed over 50 wind
  farms in Spain, France Germany

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Woodlawn wind farm region
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Institute of Public Affairs

• Regulatory subsidies to renewable energy in
  Victoria by Alan Moran
• Energy Issues paper 40, Feb 2006, www.ipa.org.au
• Victorian government proposing to increase
  renewable energy to 10 of total electricity
  supply by 2010
• Cost to Victoria 108m to 135m pa

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Overseas wind farms

• Denmark 2400 MW installed capacity, Germany
  16,400 MW, Spain 9,926 MW
• unpredictability of wind energy output is
  catered within Denmark via the Norway, Sweden
  exchange and Germany
• German wind farms generated 26 million MWh, a
  load factor of 18, generating around 4.7 of
  demand
• IPA Feb 2006

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Need for backup

• wind generators will only effectively compete
  with fast-start generators, such as hydro or
  gas fired that can be called upon to meet
  unexpected or unscheduled demand
• output can fluctuate by as much as 50 within a
  30 second period
• wind generation reduces national CO2 emissions
  in the order of 0.52 Mt per MW installed this
  figure suggests the Victorian estimate is
  overestimated by some 150
• IPA Feb 2006

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New RECs since 2004
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Justification for 50 MW wind farm in ACT

• This is truly perplexing. With the current
  state of MRET (depressed REC prices, expectation
  the scheme is already fully supplied), increasing
  capital costs for windfarms and lack of
  commitment from the federal government to any
  further support for renewables, I fail to see how
  this project would go ahead on purely commercial
  terms. AGL continue to push a number of
  windfarms, including this one, Hallett in SA and
  MacArthur in Victoria. Our speculation is that
  they are placing a significant value on a future
  carbon price (and I think that must be reflected
  in the price they paid for Southern Hydro).
  Andrew Burge 29/3/06

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Potential US emission reductions 2050
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Potential US emission reductions 2050

• From An inconvenient truth p 280
• Potential reductions from many sources
• All need carbon price signals
• Increased vehicle efficiency and CCS research are
  current Australian policy

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Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change

• BP, IAG, Origin Energy, Swiss Re, Visy, Westpac
  ACF
• A 60 reduction in greenhouse gases is possible
  .. with real GDP growth averaging 2.1 pa if
  early action taken
• www.acfonline.org 7/4/06

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Cheaper to defer action?

• Present value of a deferred cost is lower
• Power stations have very long lives
• Low-carbon non-energy substitutes should be more
  readily available
• Brian Fisher Anna Matysek, AFR 1/5/06 p63

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• Carbon dioxide is what we breathe out, and plants
  breathe in.
• They call it pollution. We call it life.
• TV advertisement by Competitive Enterprise
  Institute

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What you can do to help

• Save energy at home
• Get around on less
• Consume less, conserve more
• Be a catalyst for change
• An inconvenient truth pp 305-321

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• Political will is a renewable resource
• Vote for leadership who pledge to solve this
  issue.
• An inconvenient truth, movie 2006