Part 2 Your Future

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Part 2 Your Future
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Key findings

• We are experiencing high population and household
  formation growth rates
• We are now on the cusp of a major change in the
  sources of population growth
• The ageing process has reached a point where we
  are on the brink of a major change
• Geography is important Know your place!

3
Assumptions for VIF2004 projections
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Key findings

• We are experiencing high population and household
  formation growth rates
• We are now on the cusp of a major change in the
  sources of population growth
• The ageing process has reached a point where we
  are on the brink of a major change
• Geography is important Know your place!

5
Index of population and household growth,
Melbourne, 2001-2031
Index 2001100
Source DSE VIF2004
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Change in household type, Melbourne, 2001, 2031
Source DSE VIF2004
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The family life cycle (re-configured)
Longer education
Travel and return home
Never partner
Divorce Separation
Re-partnering
Never have children
Source DSE
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What is driving household change social
organisation or ageing?
Changing household propensities, example 1 25 to
29 year old males, Victoria
Source ABS
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Age of person by household type, Melbourne, 2001
Source ABS 2001 Census
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Where do the 630,000 additional households in
Melbourne come from?
Source DSE VIF2004
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Key findings

• We are experiencing high population and household
  formation growth rates
• We are now on the cusp of a major change in the
  sources of population growth
• The ageing process has reached a point where we
  are on the brink of a major change
• Geography is important Know your place!

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But Australia is now on the cusp of a major
change past and projected natural increase for
Australia
Deaths
Births
Births
Natural Increase
Deaths
Natural Increase
Source ABS
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And Victoria is in a similar position births,
deaths and natural increase, Victoria 1971 to
2051
Source ABS, DSE VIF2004
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Victorias growth will steadily slow over the
next 30 years

• Projected annual population growth rate (),
  Victoria, 2001 to 2031

Source DSE VIF2004
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The difference mix of growth population growth
in Victoria, 2001 to 2031
Natural Increase 586,000
Overseas Migration 831,000
Interstate Migration 4,000
(1,768,000 births 1,182,000 deaths)
Population growth 1,421,000
Source DSE VIF2004
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Key findings

• We are experiencing high population and household
  formation growth rates
• We are now on the cusp of a major change in the
  sources of population growth
• The ageing process has reached a point where we
  are on the brink of a major change
• Geography is important Know your place!

17
Age Pyramid, Melbourne SD, 1971 and 2001
Source DSE VIF2004
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Age Pyramid, Melbourne SD, 2001 and 2031
Source DSE VIF2004
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Health issues costs increase strongly with age
Source Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
Source Australian institute of Health and
Welfare, 2001
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Issues the demographic gift and Victorias
ageing population

• Population growth by select age groups, 1971,
  2001, 2031

1971 2001 2031
8.5
13.0
22.8
3.6 million 4.8 million
6.2 million
Source ABS, DSE VIF2004
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Labour force issues changing size and mix of
ages, Victoria, 2001-2051
The changing mix
Changes in size of each group
Australias population aged 18-64 is increasing
by 171,000 per year. It will increase by only
125,000 throughout the 2020s.
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Change in age profile of 3 major household types,
Melbourne, 2001 to 2031
Source DSE VIF2004 unpublished data
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Key findings

• We are experiencing high population and household
  formation growth rates
• We are now on the cusp of a major change in the
  sources of population growth
• The ageing process has reached a point where we
  are on the brink of a major change
• Geography is important Know your place!

24
Different growth drivers for Melbourne and
regional Victoria

• Melbourne has stronger population gain through
  natural increase as its population is younger
  than regional Victoria
• Melbourne gains 9 out of every 10 overseas
  migrants to Victoria. Most of these are young
  adults, 18 to 30 years old
• Melbourne attracts young people from interstate
  regional Victoria is a net loser of people
  interstate
• Regional Victoria historically gains population
  from Melbourne

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Melbourne implied net migration by age
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Projected growth in Melbourne2001 - 2031
Source DSE VIF2004
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Projected change of 0 to 17 year olds in
Melbourne, 2001 - 2031
Source DSE VIF2004
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Projected change of 60 year olds in Melbourne,
2001 - 2031
Source DSE VIF2004
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Change in age structure, Knox, 2001-2031
Males Females
2001 gt 2031
2001 lt 2031
Source DSE VIF2004
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Change in age structure, Cardinia, 2001-2031
Males Females
2001 2031
Source DSE VIF2004
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Where can I get more information?

• www.dse.vic.gov.au/victoriainfuture