North Dakota: Bridging Divides and Building Futures

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North Dakota Bridging Divides
and Building Futures

• Richard Rathge
• Professor
• Departments of Sociology/Anthropology and
  Agribusiness and Applied Economics

46th NDSU Faculty Lectureship
April 6, 2004
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Lecture Objective
To lay a foundation for informed debate about
North Dakotas future
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My method for accomplishing this is
1. Presenting evidence of the demographic
realities facing N.D.
2. Offering insight into the change agents
transforming N.D.
3. Creating momentum for innovative dialogue
about opportunities and potentials
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Recurring Themes
1. Demographic trends have created barriers that
divide the state
2. History is an important guide for
understanding the future
3. Technology links changes
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Population Per Square Mile, 2000
Rhode Island
Source National Atlas of the United States,
Bureau of the Census
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Percentage Change in Total PopulationU.S.
Counties 1990 to 2000
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Nonmetro Farming-Dependent Counties, 1989
Counties with 20 percent or more of income (labor
or proprietor) from farming
Other nonmetro counties
Farming counties
Metro counties
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Demographic Divides
1. Population consolidation
2. Shifting age distribution
3. Changing economic base
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Demographic Divides
1. Population consolidation
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Tipping Point for Rural over 5 million
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Transforming Nature of Agricultural Technology
Between 1950 and 1990

• Ag. output per hour farm work rose 1,300

• Production more than doubled

Population impact

• U.S. farm population dropped from 25 of all
  U.S. residents in 1940 to 1.5 in 2000

• In Great Plains, 85 of farm counties saw their
  peak population in 1950

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Number and Average Size of N.D. Farms, 1900-2002
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of
Agriculture, various years.
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Population Change for North Dakota Cities,1990
to 2000
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census
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N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution,1900-200
0
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial
Censuses.
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North Dakota Cities by Size, 1960 to 2000
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17
urban
rural
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census
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North Dakota Legislative Districts 2004
47 Districts
Grand Forks4 Minot4 Fargo7 Bismarck6 Total21
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Consolidation issues to bridge

• Larger communities growth is masking
  smaller communities decline

- Political debates are dominated by large
communities
- Sparse population bases and vast distances
hide rural residents and make them harder to
serve
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Demographic Divides
2. Shifting Age Distribution
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Net Domestic Migration Rates Per 100 Persons in
the United States by County 1990 to 1999
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Figure 13. Percent Change in Persons Ages 20 to
24 for the U.S. by County 1990 to 2000
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Figure 11. Percent Change in Persons Ages 0 to 4
for the U.S. by County 1990 to 2000
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Figure 12. Percent Change in Persons Ages 5 to 19
for the U.S. by County 1990 to 2000
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Analysis K.M. Johnson, Loyola U-Chicago R.
Rathge, NDSU
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N.D. Labor Force, by Generation
Source Census Bureau North Dakota State Data
Center
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Distribution of the Elderly 2000Percentage of
Persons 65 Years and Older
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2000Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2020Source North Dakota State Data Center,
North Dakota Population Projections 2005 to
2020, Sept. 2002
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Rising Life Expectancy at Age 65
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19.7
Years Remaining at Age 65
?
17.8
16.4
17.2
14.4
11.9
0
1900
1960
2010 (proj.)
1980
1998
Source National Center for Health Statistics
Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. U.S. Bureau of
the Census.
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Number of Projected Centenarians
140,000
131,000
100,000
72,000
60,000
28,000
15,000
20,000
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source U.S. Census Bureau, P251130.
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Distribution of the Elderly 2000Percentage of
Persons 85 Years and Older
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Persons Ages 85 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2000Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
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Persons Ages 85 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2020Source North Dakota State Data Center,
North Dakota Population Projections 2005 to
2020, Sept. 2002
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Age distribution issues tobridge
- Shrinking entry labor pool and expanding
pre-retirement/retirement sector
- Growing proportion of older rural seniors

• Shifting generations with different voting
  patterns and concerns

• Loss of young adults in rural areas

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Demographic Divides
3. Changing Economic Base
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Workforce in United States,1800-2000
Percent of Work-force
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The New Economy Paradigm
(C.K. Wong, Chinese General Chamber of Commerce)

• Industrial Age
• Old Paradigm
• Mass Production
• Mass Media
• Mass Marketing
• Economy of Scale

• Information Age
• New Paradigm
• Customized Production
• Individualize Presentation
• One-to-One Marketing
• Economy of Scope

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N.D. Gross State Product by Industry, 1979 and
1999
Source U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Source ERS, USDA
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Service-producing industries continue to lead
employment growth
Millions of nonfarm wage and salary jobs
Goods-producing
Service-producing
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Projected 2000-2010 employment growth in services
Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Ten fastest growing industries are services
Percent change, projected 2000-2010
Computer and data processing
Residential care
Health services, nec.
Cable and pay television
Personnel supply
Warehousing and storage
Water and sanitation
Veterinary
Landscaping and horticulture
Miscellaneous business
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Economic issues to bridge

• Service sector outpacing agricultural sector

- Economic paradigm changing from industry- based
to information-based
- Embracing interdependence rather
than independence
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Bridges for North Dakotas Future

• Collaboration and interdependence

• Innovations through technology

• Visionary and risk-taking decisions

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Bridges for North Dakotas Future

• Collaboration and interdependence

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Areas from which F-M Employees are Drawn
n117
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Collaboration Models

• Greater Metropolitan Area Labor Council
• Governors Centers of Excellence
• NDSUs Research and Technology Park
• Community of Care Good Samaritan Society
  Initiative in Arthur ND

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Bridges for North Dakotas Future
2. Innovations through technology
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Tele-health Costs
Typical telemedicine set-up cost
1995 300,000 2000 5,000
Typical patient visit costs in-person 100 tel
e-visit 12-15


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Bridges for North Dakotas Future
3. Visionary and risk-taking decisions
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What is Economic Development?

• Finding, sustaining, and capitalizing upon
  locational advantage to create wealth and
  minimize poverty.

• Remarks at Midwestern Workforce Development
  Policy Forum
• Council of State Governments November 11, 2000
  by Graham S. Toft,
• President Indiana Economic Development Council,
  Inc.

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Persons ages 0-9 and ages 65 and older, North
Dakota,1890 to 2002
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North Dakota Elderly Migration Annual Average
Net Flow
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Economic realities

• Seniors economic contribution to ND
• Nearly 3 billion (18 of states total)
• Social Security 1.3 billion
• Private pensions - 1 billion
• Medicaid - 529 million
• Veterans pensions - 55 million
• Cost of outmigration, 1998-2001
• 385 million in taxable income

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N.D. Retirement Medicare Transfer Payments (As
a percentage of total personal income1998)
Statewide 10.6
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Agreement with statement, I would like to stay
in in my current residence as long as possible
Respondents age 45 and over ( n2,000)
Source Fixing to Stay, 2000
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Preference if needing care for themselves
Respondents age 45 and over (n2,000)
Source Fixing to Stay, 2000
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Interdependence School buses used for senior
shuttles
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Why not go out on a limb? Thats where the
fruit is. Will Rogers
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Acknowledgements
State Data Center Staff
Mandy Clemenson, Helen Danielson,
Ramona Danielson, Sarah Jenson, Karen Olson, Kay
Olson, Aparna Nandula, Jordyn Nikle
Supported Nomination Dr. Kathy Slobin, Paula
Highman, Dr. George Youngs, Dr. Larry Leistritz,
Dr. Greg Sanders, Dr. Pat Jensen, Dr. Mary Alice
Gillispie, Lou Ziegler, David Martin, Linda
Wright, Renee Jefferson-Copeland, Bill O-Hare
Best Support System
My wife Dr. Polly Fassinger
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NDSU IACC 424 Fargo, ND 58105
http//www.ndsu.edu/sdc