EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA

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Westhampton Beach High School 6th Science
Symposium at the Westhampton Beach Performing
Arts Center May 11, 2006 Climate Change,
Katrina, and us ! (or why do we need to care
about disasters ?) Klaus Jacob
ltjacob_at_ldeo.columbia.edugt Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory of Columbia University Palisades NY
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How, the heck, did I get involved with Disasters
?
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• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods

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• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth
  Sciences

5

• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth Sc.
• Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. B.S.

6

• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth Sc.
• Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. B.S
• M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP - Learned English

7

• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth Sc.
• Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. B.S
• M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP
• Earthquakes Plate Tectonics PhD

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• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth Sc.
• Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. B.S
• M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP
• Earthquakes Plate Tectonics PhD
• Columbia post-doc / long 1 year 38 years !

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• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth Sc.
• Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. B.S
• M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP
• Earthquakes Plate Tectonics PhD
• Columbia post-doc / long 1 year 38 years !
• Pakistan Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes

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• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth Sc.
• Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. B.S
• M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP
• Earthquakes Plate Tectonics PhD
• Columbia post-doc / long 1 year 38 years !
• Pakistan Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes
• Alaska Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals

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• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth Sc.
• Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. B.S
• M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP
• Earthquakes Plate Tectonics PhD
• Columbia post-doc / long 1 year 38 years !
• Pakistan Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes
• Alaska Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals
• NYC Equ.Eng.Seismic Building Code 11 years

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• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth Sc.
• Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. B.S
• M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP
• Earthquakes Plate Tectonics PhD
• Columbia post-doc / long 1 year 38 years !
• Pakistan Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes
• Alaska Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals
• NYC Equ.Eng.Seismic Building Code 11 years
• NY Equ. Loss study / NYSEMO T.A.C. Chair

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• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth Sc.
• Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. B.S
• M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP
• Earthquakes Plate Tectonics PhD
• Columbia post-doc / long 1 year 38 years !
• Pakistan Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes
• Alaska Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals
• NYC Equ.Eng.Seismic Building Code 11 years
• NY Equ. Loss study / NYSEMO T.A.C. Chair
• Climate Change Impact on NYC / SLR Infrstr.

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• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth Sc.
• Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. B.S
• M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP
• Earthquakes Plate Tectonics PhD
• Columbia post-doc / long 1 year 38 years !
• Pakistan Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes
• Alaska Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals
• NYC Equ.Eng.Seismic Building Code 11 years
• NY Equ. Loss study / NYSEMO T.A.C. Chair
• Climate Change Impact on NYC / SLR Infrstr.
• Col.Univ. Earth Institute/Urban Planning/SIPA
• Disaster-resilient Caracas, Istanbul, Accra,
  Singapore, New Orleans

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• How did I get involved with Disasters ?
• As a Kid, roamed around outdoors/woods
• High School Failed in English Bio/Earth Sc.
• Geology, Geophysics, Physics/Math/Eng. B.S
• M.S. Applied Geophysics / BP
• Earthquakes Plate Tectonics PhD
• Columbia post-doc / long 1 year 38 years !
• Pakistan Dams, Reservoirs and Earthquakes
• Alaska Earthquakes and Volcanoes - Seals
• NYC Equ.Eng.Seismic Building Code 11 years
• NY Equ. Loss study / NYSEMO T.A.C. Chair
• Climate Change Impact on NYC / SLR Infrstr.
• Col.Univ. Earth Institute/Urban Planning/SIPA
• Disaster-resilient Caracas, Istanbul, Accra,
  Singapore, New Orleans
• Lessons -- Get Good Basic Education
• Travel the World / Keep your Options open
• -- Never know what the Future holds.

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The Historian - Philosopher Will Durant
(1885-1981) wrote "Civilization exists by
geological consent, subject to change without
notice."
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Source Jim Hansen, NASA/GISS http//www.giss.nas
a.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/
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Climate Change, Ocean Temperature Hurricanes
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Storm distribution with Present atmosphere.
Storm distribution with CO2- rich, warmer
atmosphere.
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• Hurricane Katrina - Some Facts
  Numbers
• Aug 30, 2005, Category 4 Hurricane
• 1,300 Confirmed Dead,
• 2.5 Million Households apply for FEMA relief
• 0.4 Million Displaced in 4 States (290k in
  Louisiana)
• Loss of Jobs in Louisiana 400,000
• Insured Losses 34.4 Billion
• Federal Funds Authorized so far 62 Billion
• Total Economic Loss gt 100 Billion (Estim.)
• Failed Louisiana Congressional Delegation Request
  
• Katrina Disaster Relief and Economic Recovery
  Act
• ( 250 Billion Estim.)
• Comparison
• 4 Years Afghan/Iraq War gt 200 Billion

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Above MSL Below MSL
Bathymetry (in meters)
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• Lessons (to be) Learned from Katrina
• Mississippi Delta and New Orleans subside
  currently at a rate of 3 ft per century (1cm/yr)
  . By the year 2100 this rate will increase to
  about 5 ft/century (1.5 cm/yr) due to Global
  Warming.
• Storm-surge frequency will increase 3 to of 10
  times.
• The frequency of intense Hurricanes (category 4
  and 5) is likely to increase.
• Dams and Levees would have to grow in height
  (and width at their base) with time, with major
  consequences for urban land use planning
  zoning.
• Therefore Rebuilding of New Orleans should
  ideally be fixed to sea-level rather than to the
  sinking ground. This would require novel
  storm-proof engineering of mega-floats with
  flexible connections to infrastructure systems.gt
  Prepare for this LONG-TERM solution NOW.

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• Katrina Lessons (continued)
• Hurricane Forecasting is Well Developed, but
• Communicating Uncertainties will need
  Refinement.
• Statistical Models of Hurricane Frequency
• Strength, and of Coastal Storm Surge Heights /
  
• Frequency will need rethinking in relation to
• Climate Change / Global Warming / Sea Level
  Rise
• Land Subsidence
• Natural Protections (Barrier Islands,
  Mangroves,
• Wetlands)
• New Flood Zone Maps and Code Regulations
• Coastal Demographic Trends and Current Coastal
• Land use are Unsustainable (nation-wide).

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In the Northern Hemisphere the Right Arm of the
Hurricane has Higher Winds and Higher Coastal
Storm Surges than the Left Arm.
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Hurricane Floyd, Sept. 1999
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NYC Storm Surge Inundation Map for SLOSH Model
Worst-Case Hurricane Tracks, Color Coded By
Saffir-Simpson Categories 1-4(Source
http//metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/ )
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Long Island Sound Paleo-Sea Level Rise Data for
the last 2000 years
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Hurricane Category None.
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Hurricane Category 1
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Hurricane Category 2
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Hurricane Category 3
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Hurricane Category 4
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Costliest Atlantic hurricanes, 1851-2004 Cost
refers to total estimated property
damage. Ran
k Hurricane Year Cost (2004 USD) _________________
______________________ 1 Andrew 1992 43.672
billion 2 Fifi 1974 20 billion (2005
USD) 3 Charley 2004 15 billion 4 Ivan 2004 14.2
billion 5 Hugo 1989 12.25 billion _____________
__________________________ Source NOAA
Katrina 2005 75 Billion (est.)
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• According to the United States Land-falling
  Hurricane Probability Project
• 30 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
  hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in 2006.
  Normal value is 16.
• 18 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
  hit with a hurricane in 2006. Normal value is 9.
  
• 9 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
  hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more)
  in 2006. Normal value is 4.
• 99 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
  hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in the
  next 50 years.
• 73 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
  hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years.
• 26 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
  hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more)
  in the next 50 years.

• According to the United States Landfalling
  Hurricane Probability Project
• 30 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
  hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in 2006.
  Normal value is 16.
• 18 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
  hit with a hurricane in 2006. Normal value is 9.
  
• 9 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
  hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more)
  in 2006. Normal value is 4.
• 99 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
  hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in the
  next 50 years.
• 73 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
  hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years.

26 probability that NY City/Long Island will be
hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more)
in the next 50 years.
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Strapped insurers flee coastal areas 4/26/2006
1227 PM By Marilyn Adams, USA TODAY With the
2006 hurricane season starting in just five
weeks, many home insurers from Texas to Florida
to New York are canceling policies along the
coast or refusing to sell new ones out of fear of
another catastrophic storm. In the widest
insurance retreat from coastal property since
Hurricane Andrew slammed Florida in 1992,
insurers as far north as Long Island, N.Y., and
Cape Cod, Mass., are shedding coastal homeowners
policies to reduce their exposure. Allstate
Insurance says it won't write any new homeowners
policies in New York City, Long Island or
Westchester County. Although Long Island hasn't
been struck by a major hurricane since 1938, "The
probability exists for New York to be hit," says
Trevino. MetLife also is cutting back on new
homeowners policies near the coast. New York's
legislature is considering a bill to create a
permanent, state-run insurer of last resort to
provide wind and fire insurance for coastal
homes.
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• Conclusions
• Climate Change and Sea Level Rise are inevitable.
  Their future Magnitudes are somewhat uncertain,
  but their Pace can be Slowed by proper Energy
  Policies and Consumer Behavior.
• Sea Level Rise and Global Warming mean greater
  Hazards from Stronger and More Frequent Storms in
  Coastal Areas.
• Adaptation Options are Retreat from low-lying
  Coastal Areas, Raising and Strengthening of
  structures, early Warnings and Preparedness for
  fast Evacuation.
• Home Insurance for Wind, and Federal Insurance
  for Flood, will be ever more expensive and harder
  to get, and in the future, if at all available,
  will come with Higher Deductibles and Lower
  Ceilings.
• Advice Do not kill the Messenger(s)! Hear the
  Message and Prepare for its Substance! Coastal
  hazards are not just a Problem for Westhampton
  Beach, its a coastal Problem on a National and
  Global Scale. Lets all work together. Scientists
  have an important public role to play. But
  ultimately YOU make the difference!

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Thank You !
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• Facts about the 1938 Hurricane
• Peak Steady Winds - 121 mph
• Peak Gust - 186 mph at Blue Hill Observatory,
  MA.
• Lowest Pressure - 27.94 in (946.2 mb) at
  Bellport, NY
• Peak Storm Surge - 17 ft. above normal high tide
  (RI)
• Peak Wave Heights - 50 ft. at Gloucester, MA
• Deaths - 700 (600 in New England)
• Homeless - 63,000
• Homes, Buildings Destroyed - 8,900
• Boats Lost - 3,300
• Trees Destroyed - 2 Billion (approx.)
• Cost - 6.2 million (1938), 20 billion (2006
  adj.)