RECENT RESULTS

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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATIONFOR THENEW YORK CITY
AREA

• RECENT RESULTS
• by
• Michael Tantala, George Deodatis and Guy J. P.
  Nordenson
• funded by
• FEMA, MCEER, NYSEMO

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results

• This research seeks to provide a forecast of the
  types of losses that the New York area could
  suffer after an earthquake

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INTRODUCTION
EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results

• This research seeks to provide a forecast of the
  types of losses that the New York area could
  suffer after an earthquake
• Risk is typically defined by 3 components
• a hazard (the earthquake)
• the assests involved (our focus is the building
  stock), and
• the fragility of those assests
• There is a low probability of recurrence of
  earthquakes HOWEVER the NYC area is high risk
  because of
• portfolio concentration, and
• the fragility of that portfolio
• most structures are not seismically designed like
  those on the West Coast
• the 1st seismic code was just passed in 1995
• Scenarios were performed using the HAZUS (or
  Hazards US) modeling GIS code
• Essential/Critical Facilities Studied

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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results

• HAZUS stands for Hazards US
• A software that utilizes geographic information
  systems (like arcview and mapinfo) to produce
  detailed maps and analytical reports that
  describe a communitys potential losses
• A standardized nationally-applicable earthquake
  loss estimation model
• About 700 users (public and private) in 50 states
  and several foreign
• plans to include multi-hazard analysis in the
  future including wind and flooding hazards

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METHODOLOGY
EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Define the Inventory Characteristics
Define Earthquake Hazard
Structure Location, Value, Year Built
Seismic Sources
Attenuation Relationships
Construction Class, Occupancy Class,
Soil Type
Recurrence Relationships
Estimate Inventory Damage
Building Capacity and
Fragility Curves
Calculate Economic Loss
Expected Losses
Probable Mean Loss (PML)
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Risk Exposure What does Manhattan have to risk?

• Within the 27 square mile region, there are 298
  census tracts
• 717,000 households
• 1.5 million people
• 37,000 buildings with 2.2 billion square feet
• with a replacement value of 347 B (not
  contents) 2001

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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Manhattan is unique in that it has a significant
number of buildings greater than 20 stories
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Pre-1945 Lower Manhattan Buildings are shaded Red
Distribution of Year of Construction
12000
10000
8000
Number of Buildings
6000
4000
2000
0
1882
1890
1898
1906
1914
1922
1930
1938
1945
1953
1961
1969
1977
1985
1993
Year of Construction
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
epicenter location
Connecticut
New York
Manhattan
New Jersey
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Deterministic (Fixed Location)
6.0M
5.0M
7.0M
PGA, Peak Ground Acceleration
PGA, g acceleration
0.05
0.20
0.40
Above 0.70
District Key
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Probabilistic
500 year event
100 year event
2500 year event
PGA, Peak Ground Acceleration
PGA, g acceleration
0.05
0.20
0.40
Above 0.70
District Key
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Deterministic (Fixed Location)
6.0M
5.0M
7.0M
Total Loss
2001 (Thousands)
30,000
120,000
240,000
Above 400,000
District Key
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Probabilistic
500 year event
100 year event
2500 year event
Total Loss
2001 (Thousands)
30,000
120,000
240,000
Above 400,000
District Key
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Deterministic (Fixed Location)
6.0M
5.0M
7.0M
Casualties 2pm earthquake Casualties 4 (Instant
Death)
of People CAS 4 or CAS 3
2
8
16
At least 24
District Key
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Probabilistic
500 year event
100 year event
2500 year event
Casualties 2pm earthquake Casualties 4 (Instant
Death)
of People CAS 4 or CAS 3
2
8
16
At least 24
District Key
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Deterministic (Fixed Location)
6.0M
5.0M
7.0M
Essential Facilities Medical Casualties 2
(Hospitalization Required) Casualties 3
(Immediate Medical Attention)
distance to nearest major medical facility
(meters)
medical facility functionality at day 0 ()
300
people in need of hospitalization
1,200
each dot is 5 five people
2,400
Average Functionality 63
Average Functionality 26
Average Functionality 96
Above 4,000
District Key
beds available 9,387
beds available 6,130
beds available 2,627
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Probabilistic
500 year event
100 year event
2500 year event
Essential Facilities Medical Casualties 2
(Hospitalization Required) Casualties 3
(Immediate Medical Attention)
distance to nearest major medical facility
(meters)
distance to nearest major medical facility
(meters)
medical facility functionality at day 0 ()
300
people in need of hospitalization
1,200
each dot is 5 five people
2,400
Average Functionality 99
Average Functionality 51
Average Functionality 26
Above 4,000
District Key
beds available 9,711
beds available 5,025
beds available 2,627
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Deterministic (Fixed Location)
6.0M
5.0M
7.0M
Total Debris Generation
Debris Brick, Wood, Steel and Concrete
Contoured PGA, g
each dot represents 10 tons
0.05
0.20
0.40
Above 0.70
District Key
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results
Probabilistic
500 year event
100 year event
2500 year event
Total Debris Generation
Debris Brick, Wood, Steel and Concrete
Contoured PGA, g
each dot represents 10 tons
0.05
0.20
0.40
Above 0.70
District Key
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group
Recent Results