Strategic Development of Power Generation in the Context of

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Strategic Development of Power Generation in the
Context of Energy Strategy of Russia for the
Year 2030
Alexey Gromov PhD Deputy Director Institute for
Energy Strategy
11th Prague International Energy
Conference Prague, 24-26 September 2009
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Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of Documents
of the Strategic Development
Long-term forecast of the development of Russian
economy for the years 2009-2030
Conception of the long-term development of the
Russian Federation for the year 2020
ES-2030
General scheme of allocation of power generating
facilities for the year 2020
General scheme of development of the oil industry
for the year 2030
General scheme of development of the gas industry
for the year 2030
State program of energy saving
Program of long-term development of the fuel and
energy complex of the Russian Far East
Strategy of development of the power generation
in the Russian Far East
Eastern Gas Program
Conception of the state program for exploration
and exploitation of the continental shelf of the
Russian Federation
Investment programs of energy companies
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Aim and Goals of the ES-2030
Innovative and efficient energy development
Aim
Stable institutional environment in the energy
sector
Modernization and construction of new energy
infrastructure
Energy and ecological efficiency of the national
economy and energy sector
Goals
Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and
processing of energy resources
Further integration of the Russian energy sector
into the global energy system
Aim of the ES-2030 remains stable despite
consequences of the global economic crisis
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Energy Saving as Priority Direction of State
Energy Policy
Expected results of energy saving and increase in
energy efficiency in Russia
Potential of energy saving in Russia is estimated
at level of 45 of the current consumption of
energy resources
Saving of 240 bln. cub. m of natural gas, 340
bln. kilowatt-hour of electric power, 90 mln t of
coal and 45 mln t of oil and oil products
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Improvement in competitiveness of national
economy under conditions of growing tariffs for
energy resources
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Consumption of energy resources can be reduced by
Increase in revenues from extra export of oil and
natural gas 84-112 bln. USD
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20 in heat supply 30 in power generation 40
in industry and transportation 50 in living
apartments
Decrease in governmental expanses 3-5 bln. USD
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Reduction in CO2 emissions 790 mln
t/y Improvement in ecological situation in the
country
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Basic Forecasted Characteristics of the
ES-2030(Electricity Production and Consumption)
years
years
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Power Generation
Problems
Results of ES-2020
Completion of the structural reform of the
Russian power generation
Deficit of generative and circuit capacities in
some regions
Lack of peak and semi-peak capacities
Creation of the wholesale competitive market of
electric power and capacity
High runout of basic production assets
Low energy and economic efficiency of power
generation
Tendencies
High dependency on natural gas
Shift of electric power consumption into Eastern
regions of Russia and cities of the Central part
of the country
Absence of retail market of electric power and
capacity
Lack of investment resources
Increase in seasonal and daily peak loads in the
UES of Russia
Cross-funding between different groups of
consumers and between electric power and heat in
domestic market
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Development of Power Generation
Strategic aims
Energy security of the country
Complete satisfaction of countrys needs in
energy (capacity) at reasonable prices
Safe and secure work of power supply system under
normal conditions and in case of emergency
Innovative renovation
Principles and mechanisms of realization
Balanced development of generative and circuit
capacities
Development of environmental friendly
technologies of coal burning, steam-to-gas plants
with high coefficient of efficiency, power
circuits of new generation, etc.
Further development and enlargement of the UES of
Russia
Containment of prices by means of reduction of
costs in construction of generative and circuit
capacities, encouragement of competition and
creation of state system supervising power
generation
Modernization of the basic production assets
Development of competitive markets of electric
energy and capacity
Development of small power generation in
regions with decentralized power supply
Accelerated development of nuclear, coal power
generation and renewable energy diversification
of the fuel and energy balance of the country
Reliability and controllability of power supply
systems
Reduction of negative environmental impact of
power generation
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Power Generation and Consumption
Power generation
Power consumption and export
Prospective levels of power generation will be
determined by growth of domestic demand, which
will substantially exceed the growth rate of
demand for primary energy
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Power Consumption and Specific Electro-capacity
of GDP

• By 2030 power consumption will increase 1,9-2,3
  fold, compared with the level of 2005, while
  specific electro-capacity of GDP will decrease
  1,6-1,7 fold.

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Installed Capacity of Power Plants
By 2030 total installed capacity of Russian power
plans will increase 1.6-2 fold, compared to 2005
level (mostly due to condensate plants)
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Investment in Power Generation
Power generation demands 572-888 bln USD
investment for the year 2030. Share of the
industry in total investment in Russian FEC
equals 24-32
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Long-term State Tariff Policy
Basic Principles
Expansion of market principles of pricing and
mechanisms of self-regulation
Improvement in quality of life of the Russian
population and competitiveness of Russian industry
Investment attractiveness of projects in power
generation and transmission
Predictability and transparency of long-term
state tariff policy and its coordination with
other components of the state energy policy
Till 2030 average selling price for electric
power (at 2007 constant prices) wont increase
more than 2-fold and wont exceed 9-10 US cent/kW
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Stages of Realization
1st Stage

• Modernization of gas-fired power plants
• Decommissioning of old-fashioned and depreciated
  equipment
• Creation of legal frameworks for attraction of
  investment in power generation
• Realization of state program for construction of
  nuclear and hydro power plants
• Creation of domestic competitive market of
  electric power and capacity
• Development of public assistance in supplying
  electric power at social norms

2nd Stage

• Large-scale renovation of basic production assets
  
• Development of power circuits and proper
  infrastructure in the Eastern Siberia and Far
  East
• Putting into operation new nuclear power plants
• Development of renewable energy

3rd Stage

• Active development of non-hydrocarbon power
  generation (nuclear, renewable, etc.)
• Technological improvements in coal-fired power
  generation
• Construction of major hydroelectric power
  stations in Eastern parts of Russia
• Development of small nuclear power generation
  in the Russian North and Far East
• Development of modular high-temperature nuclear
  reactors, able to produce electric power, heat
  and hydrogen

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Development of Non-fuel Energy
Forecasted development of renewable power
generation
Priority development
POWER GENERATION
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewable
Putting into operation installed capacity of
23-33 GWt will increase the share of renewable
energy in power generation from 0,5 to 4,5
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State Policy in the Sphere of Renewable Energy
and Local Power Supply
Sate support of Russian industry and science
supplying power generation on the basis of
renewable energy with equipment and technologies
Attraction of investment, creation of special
venture funds
Support of small service enterprises, operating
in the sphere of renewable energy
Support of utilization of industrial and communal
waste for the purpose of power generation
Informational support
Technical and technological control of security
of renewable energy
Support of utilization of local power supply in
remote regions
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Strategic Indicators of Development
Indicators 2008 1st Stage 2nd Stage 3rd Stage
Power generation Power generation Power generation Power generation Power generation
Share of non-fuel power supply, 32,5 no more than 34 no more than 35 no more than 38
Fuel supply of thermoelectric power plants Fuel supply of thermoelectric power plants Fuel supply of thermoelectric power plants Fuel supply of thermoelectric power plants Fuel supply of thermoelectric power plants
Share of gas, 70,3 70-71 65-66 60-62
Share of coal, 26 25-26 29-30 34-36
Energy security and reliability of power supply Energy security and reliability of power supply Energy security and reliability of power supply Energy security and reliability of power supply Energy security and reliability of power supply
Probability of non-deficit functioning of energy systems 0,996 0,9990 0,9991 0,9997
Efficiency of power generation Efficiency of power generation Efficiency of power generation Efficiency of power generation Efficiency of power generation
Coefficient of efficiency of coal-fired power plants, 34 no less than 35 no less than 38 no less than 41
Coefficient of efficiency of gas-fired power plants, 38 no less than 45 no less than 50 no less than 53
Coefficient of efficiency of nuclear power plants, 32 no less than 32 no less than 34 no less than 36
Specific fuel consumption for power generation at heat and power plants, g c.e./kWt-h (by the level of 2005) 333 (99) no more than 315 (94) no more than 300 (90) no more than 270 (81)
Loss in power circuits, 13 no more than 12 no more than 10 no more than 8
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Heat Supply
Problems
Results of ES-2020
Runout of basic production assets increased up to
65-70
Lack of reliability of heat supplying systems
Coefficient of utilization of installed heat
capacity of power plants decreased to the level
below 50
High loss rate
High negative impact on environment
Extension of heat distribution network decreased
by 5 (more than 10 000 km)
Lack of investment and necessity to restrain the
growth of tariffs
Loss rate in heat distribution increased from 14
to 20
Organizational disconnection of objects and
systems of heat supply
Power consumption for transportation of heat
carrier increased substantially (up to 40
kWt-h/hcal)
Urgent necessity of institutional reform in the
system of heat supply
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Heat Supply
Strategic aims
High level of comfort in residential and
industrial buildings, increase in quality of
service of heat supply, provided at reasonable
prices
Modernization of heat supply systems on the basis
of innovative high-efficient technologies and
equipment
Decrease of unproductive loss of heat and fuel
consumption
Controllability, reliability, security and
economy of heat supply
Decrease of negative impact on environment
Principles and mechanisms of realization
Priority development of cogeneration-based heat
supply
Utilization of geothermal energy
Combined operation of different sources of heat
for a common heat transporting network and
optimization of their functioning
Development of heat supply on the basis of
steam-turbine, gas-turbine, gas-piston and diesel
plants in the sphere of middle and small heat load
Optimization of regimes of thermoelectric plants
Optimal combination of centralized and
decentralized heat supply
Rational combination of system and elemental
reservation, transition to independent scheme of
connection to heat supply and closed system of
hot water supply
Creation of legal framework, guaranteeing
effective interaction between producers,
distributors and consumers of heat
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Technological Structure of Heat Supply

• Main growth will be provided by power plants
• Share of geothermal, solar and biomass sources of
  heat will be increased
• Share of boiler-houses by 2030 will be decreased

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Heat Consumption and Loss

• Loss of heat will decrease 2-3 fold (equivalent
  to economy of fuel of no less than 40 mln t c.e.)

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Investment in Heat Supply
Heat supply demands 150-153 bln USD investment
for the year 2030. Share of the industry in total
investment in Russian FEC equals 5-6
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Stages of Realization
1st Stage

• Optimization of centralized and decentralized
  systems of heat supply
• Modernization of basic productive assets and
  transport network
• Equipping of heat consumers with systems of
  control and regulation
• Attraction of private investment
• Optimization of tariffs (transition to two-part
  tariff)
• Increase in energy efficiency of buildings

2nd Stage

• Large-scale modernization of basic productive
  assets and transport network
• Rapid development of decentralized heat supply
  and heat supply on the basis of renewable energy
• Creation of market of heat
• Further increase in energy efficiency of heat
  supply

3rd Stage

• High level of comfort in residential and
  industrial buildings
• Utilization of non-fuel sources of heat
• Spread of high-tech automatic systems of heat
  supply

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Strategic Indicators of Development
Indicators 2008 1st Stage 2nd Stage 3rd Stage
Energy security and reliability of heat supply Energy security and reliability of heat supply Energy security and reliability of heat supply Energy security and reliability of heat supply Energy security and reliability of heat supply
Failure rate, 1/year 0,27 no more than 0,25 no more than 0,20 no more than 0,15
Failure rate because of source of heat, 1/(source-year) 0,06 no more than 0,05 no more than 0,03 no more than 0,01
Renewal of heat network, of total extension 2 no less than 10 no less than 40 no less than 90
Innovative development of heat supply Innovative development of heat supply Innovative development of heat supply Innovative development of heat supply Innovative development of heat supply
Share of systems, equipped with modern tools of exploitation, 10 no less than 40 no less than 80 100
Efficiency of heat supply Efficiency of heat supply Efficiency of heat supply Efficiency of heat supply Efficiency of heat supply
Coefficient of effective use of heating power at heat and power plant, of the 2005 level 5 no less than 15 no less than 40 no less than 50
Mean specific fuel consumption, of the 2005 level 99 no more than 98 no more than 94 no more than 90
Increase in energy efficiency of buildings, to the 2005 level 5 no less than 10 no less than 30 no less than 50
Heat loss, of heat production 19 no more than 16 no more than 13 no more than 8-10
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