An Inside Look on Opposition

1
An Inside Look on Opposition
and the Interaction Effects with the Outside
World
Marc RICHTER QMD / PMU (OHIM) Workshop
Economic Analysis of Trade Marks and
BrandsAlicante, Spain, June 2008
2
Table of Contents

• OHIM, QMD and PMU
• OHIM / Market interaction
• An example Opposition Forecast
• Whats next?

2
3
OHIM, QMD and PMU

• The Acronyms
• OHIM Office for Harmonization in the Internal
  Market (aka the Office)
• QMD Quality Management Department
• PMU Performance Management Unit
• The Structure
• OHIM (President Wubbo de Boer)
• QMD (Director Juan Ramón Rubio)
• Service 1 (Head of Service Andrea di Carlo)
• Performance Management Unit
• René Havermans
• Luis Miguel López Santos
• Marc Richter
• Service 2 (Head of Service Rainer Tretter)

4
OHIM, QMD and PMU

• QMD Mission
• ...contribute to the efficient management of the
  Office's resources and to maximise clients'
  satisfaction.
• PMU Mission
• Offer the OHIM, and in particular its Management,
  an effective statistical reporting tool which
  assists decision making.
• Offer the OHIM and particularly its senior and
  middle managers
• quantitative analysis of main processes,
  proposing and maintaining performance
  indicators
• detection and explanation of deviations and
  anomalies in the production flows or in defined
  quality standards to establish corrective
  actions.
• analysis of the impact changes in the
  processes, technologies or in user behaviour may
  have on production flows and defined quality
  standards.
• Develop an OHIM Work Plan with quantifiable
  objectives for all the Offices activities

5
OHIM, QMD and PMU

• A word on statistics
• 1770, science dealing with data about the
  condition of a state or community, from Ger.
  Statistik, popularized and perhaps coined by Ger.
  political scientist Gottfried Aschenwall
  (1719-72) in his Vorbereitung zur
  Staatswissenschaft (1748), from Mod.L.
  statisticum (collegium) (lecture course on)
  state affairs, from It. statista one skilled in
  statecraft, from L. status (see state (n.1)).
  
• Source www.etymonline.com
• OHIM Statistics and Reporting
• 300 reports maintained by PMU alone
• Analyses based exclusively on descriptive
  statistics in 99 of the cases
• Upcoming New Core Business System EUROMARC
  ? Report migration, indicator consolidation,
  error margin quantification where applicable

6
OHIM, QMD and PMU
OHIM Incoming Business Community Trade Mark
(CTM) filings
7
OHIM, QMD and PMU
OHIM Incoming Business Registered Community
Design (RCD) filings
8
OHIM / Market interaction

• OHIM / Market interaction

9
OHIM / Market interaction
Communication model (PMU Internal Draft)
Attitude
Former PMU boundary
Policy
10
OHIM / Market interaction

• 2001 CTM e-filing CTM online
• From 2003 e-business strategy
• RCD e-filing RCD online
• E-communication
• Online access to files
• My Page
• 2005 Fee reduction for e-filing
• 2007 Future Working Methods for the 2010 horizon

11
OHIM / Market interaction
2007 Potential loophole in OHIM policies permits
non-payment exploit under certain
circumstances 2008 Policy loophole to be closed
in the medium term, exploiters to be warned
and/or penalised in the short term
12
An Example Opposition Forecast

• An Example Opposition Forecast

13
An Example Opposition Forecast

• Scope of Analysis
• Pre-analysis Trigger A CTM Application is
  published
• Process Trigger One (or more) Oppositions are
  received (OPP-REC)
• Process Flow Standardised, but with high
  case-by-case variance due to individual case
  difficulty, parties involved etc.
• Process End EUROMARC Status 262 Decision to be
  taken ? The hard part of work for the Office

Processual delays
In (OPP REC)
Out (St. 262)
14
An Example Opposition Forecast
15
An Example Opposition Forecast
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An Example Opposition Forecast
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An Example Opposition Forecast
18
An Example Opposition Forecast
19
An Example Opposition Forecast

• Misleading data in PMU report At time of first
  analysis, 262 ratios seemed to be approx.
  constant
• A ratio forecast approach shows the real
  progression, along with a (possible) behavioral
  change

20
An Example Opposition Forecast
2006 262 ratio growth forecast(for validation
purposes, conservative error estimates) 2002-OPPs
29.00 ? 30.75 D 1.75 ( 0.25
) 2003-OPPs 27.00 ? 30.50 D 3.50 (
0.50 ) 2004-OPPs 17.00 ? 28.00 D 11.00 (
2.00 ) 2005-OPPs 1.00 ? 18.00 D 17.00
( 2.00 ) 2006-OPPs 0.00 ? 1.25 D
1.25 ( 0.50 )
21
An Example Opposition Forecast
2006 262 ratio growth forecast (for validation
purposes) 2002-OPPs D 1.75 ( 0.25 ) of
9,861 OPPs ? 173 ( 25) 2003-OPPs D 3.50
( 0.50 ) of 9,986 OPPs ? 350 (
50) 2004-OPPs D 11.00 ( 2.00 ) of 10,801
OPPs ? 1188 ( 216) 2005-OPPs D 17.00 ( 2.00
) of 17,493 OPPs ? 2974 ( 350) 2006-OPPs D
1.25 ( 0.50 ) of 14,000 ( 5,000) OPPs ?
175 ( 97) 4860 ( 426 / 8.8)
Result 2006 5192 ( 6.8)
Linear propagation of uncertainty
22
An Example Opposition Forecast
2007 262 ratio growth forecast(for validation
purposes, conservative error estimates) 2003-OPPs
31.00 ? 33.00 D 2.00 ( 0.25
) 2004-OPPs 29.00 ? 34.00 D 5.00 (
0.50 ) 2005-OPPs 17.50 ? 29.00 D 11.50 (
1.50 ) 2006-OPPs 1.00 ? 21.00 D 20.00
( 2.00 ) 2007-OPPs 0.00 ? 1.25 D
1.25 ( 0.50 )
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An Example Opposition Forecast
2007 262 ratio growth forecast (for validation
purposes) 2003-OPPs D 2.00 ( 0.25 ) of
9,986 OPPs ? 200 ( 25) 2004-OPPs D 5.00
( 0.50 ) of 10,801 OPPs ? 540 (
54) 2005-OPPs D 11.50 ( 1.50 ) of 17,493
OPPs ? 2012 ( 262) 2006-OPPs D 20.00 ( 2.00
) of 14,223 OPPs ? 2845 ( 284) 2007-OPPs D
1.25 ( 0.50 ) of 15,500 ( 2500) OPPs ? 194
( 84) 5791 ( 400 / 6.9)
Result 2007 6077 ( 4.9)
24
An Example Opposition Forecast
2008 262 ratio growth forecast 2004-OPPs 33.50
? 35.50 D 2.00 ( 0.25 ) 2005-OPPs
29.75 ? 33.50 D 3.75 ( 0.50
) 2006-OPPs 21.00 ? 32.00 D 11.00 ( 1.50
) 2007-OPPs 2.00 ? 23.00 D 21.00 (
2.00 ) 2008-OPPs 0.00 ? 1.25 D 1.25
( 0.50 )
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An Example Opposition Forecast
2008 262 ratio growth forecast 2004-OPPs D
2.00 ( 0.25 ) of 10,801 OPPs ? 216 (
27) 2005-OPPs D 3.75 ( 0.50 ) of 17,493
OPPs ? 656 ( 87) 2006-OPPs D 11.00 (
1.50 ) of 14,223 OPPs ? 1565 ( 213) 2007-OPPs
D 21.00 ( 2.00 ) of 16,633 OPPs ? 3493 (
333) 2008-OPPs D 1.25 ( 0.50 ) of 20,600
( 3500) OPPs ? 258 ( 113) 6188 ( 421
/ 6.8)
Applying an empiric correction factor 6485 (
104.8 )
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An Example Opposition Forecast
Whats the 262 arrival ratio expectation for
todays oppositions?
27
An Example Opposition Forecast
Gap Cases in progress or closed w/o
decision on substance
Whats the 262 arrival ratio expectation for
todays oppositions?
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Whats next?

• Whats next?

29
Whats next?

• PMUs medium to long term goals
• Automating more standard analyses
• Better consideration of cause-and-effect chains
• Even more visualisation and process orientation
• More consideration of the OHIM / Market
  interaction
• Generally Collaboration and exchange Attitude
  of constant improvement
• Specifically All-out attack on
  Oppositions Classifications of typical
  behaviour

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Whats next?
Data Domain Allocation Map (PMU Internal Draft)
Origin (Paper, WIPO. e-file)
P/S?
CTM
OPP
Type (word,fig)
Surveillance letter?
Dossier
Classes
Grounds
Earlier rights
Dept/Serv
Examiner(s)
Experience
Ratios
Numbers
Complaint?
Appeal?
USS?
Quality
Multis
Seasonality
Admissibility
Industry
Licencee???
Evolution
Duration
Cooling-off
Abuse?
Adversarial part
Opponent
Behaviour if loser?
Size
Proof of use
Applicant
Behaviour if opposed?
Nationality
marks
Decisionmaking
Settlements
Language
Wins
Representative?
Specialty
Country
Opps
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Whats next?

• Opposition attack Iterative Methodology(PMU
  Internal Draft)
• Brainstorming to maps
• Maps as stimulus to generate (additional)
  questions
• Pivoting checklists for explorative analysis
  (more questions)
• Questions to clusters
• Clusters to (testable) hypotheses
• Test results to models
• Models to forecast / decision support systems

P
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Information ? ( 34) 965 13 9100
(switchboard) ? ( 34) 965 13 8711 (personal
extension) ? ( 34) 965 13 9143 (QMD
fax) ? Marc.RICHTER_at_oami.europa.eu ? Marc
Richter Office for Harmonization in the
Internal Market (Trade Marks and
Designs) Avenida de Europa, 4 E-03008
Alicante SPAIN