CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPLICATIONS FOR SK FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE

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CLIMATE CHANGEIMPLICATIONS FOR SK FORESTRY AND
AGRICULTURE

• Silvia Lac
• On behalf of
• Saskatchewan Environmental Society
• Nature Saskatchewan

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Climate change prediction tools

• Global scale CC- GCMs (precipitation?)
• GCMs cannot represent terrestrial biomes-
  computer power? scale? biomes function? data?
• Timing? Location? Rate of changes? Benefits?
• GCMs CC predictions in analogy to historical
  records
• Past climatic events ? ?CO2 concentration

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GCMs predictions for Canada

• Temperature will increase
• ?temperature ? ?precipitation
• ?precipitation lt ?evapotranspiration ? droughts!
• Ecosystems migration northwards
• Biophysical response slower than migration rate
• Change in land use- agriculture replacing
  forestry

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Predictions for SK forestry

• Boreal forest shrinks- ?area, ?biomass, ?C stock,
  younger age-classes
• BF growth, productivity-?North, Central ?South
• Forestry? Wildlife? Communities?
• Forest physiological intolerance to CC
  flowering, pollination, seed formation,
  germination, and competitive success
• Conifers? New species composition!

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Predictions for SK forestry (cont.)

• Ongoing adaptation
• Spruce (Stewart et al., 1997),
• Aspen (Beaubien Freeland, 2000)
• ?Fire- frequency, duration, intensity
• ?Insect disturbances- Alien- European Asian?
• ?disturbance cycles ?health and resiliency

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Predictions for SK forestry (cont.)

• Drought of 1988- ?volume growth, ?seedling
  mortality, ?disturbance (fire, tent caterpillar,
  spruce budworm)
• Peatlands wetlands can dry out (?CO2,?CH4)
  ?wildlife habitat, ?ecosystem health
• 1987-1988- Wetlands ?44, ?16 duck breeding
  population, ?5-10 fold waterfowl mortality(PFRA,
  2002)

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Recommended adaptation/mitigationstrategies for
SK forestry

• Prevent land use conversion to secondary/managed
  forest
• Restore degraded areas (wetlands and peatlands)
• Adjust policies- wildlife habitat, soil, water
• Plan industry technology shift to clean tech.
• Increase efficiency of C sequestration- products,
  recycling, rotation length, planting from seed,
  harvesting, site preparation

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Recommended adaptation/mitigation strategies for
SK forestry (cont.)

• ?Protection from disturbances- ?response time
  (roads?)
• ?Research and monitoring adaptation of vegetation
  and wildlife (disturbance regimes?)
• ?Participation in international monitoring
  efforts- Alien pests and wildlife
• Improve understanding of climate change and
  models of regional/biome estimates

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Predictions for SK agriculture

• Extended growing season- low moisture
• ?Yields (10 to 30)- summer x spring crops
• ?Need for irrigation- long-term? Will water be
  available?
• ?Dispute over good quality water
• ?Insect infestation
• Will agriculture migrate north- soils available?

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Recommended adaptation/mitigation strategies for
SK agriculture

• Prevent land use conversion (wetlands and
  peatlands)
• Restore marginal land and disturbed croplands
  (native species)
• Policy- protect and monitor wildlife, soil, water
• ?Tillage and ?summer fallow- e.g. Indian Head-
  wheat under zero tillage had higher yields during
  droughts (Zentner et al., 2003).

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Recommended adaptation/mitigation strategies for
SK agriculture (cont.)

• ?Farm diversification- e.g. Star
  City-wheat/canola 2002 (Lemke at al., 2003)
• Incorporate clean tech. - e.g. biogas power
  system (Mac Arthur, 2003)
• Improve or restrict use of pesticides
• Timing Weed gt economic injury level
• Calibrating sprayer between ? pesticides
• Non-chemical control (e.g. crop rotation,
  biological control) or integrated pest management

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Recommended adaptation/mitigation strategies for
SK agriculture (cont.)

• Improve manure management
• Application method
• Soil injection- liquid manure
• Surface application followed by soil
  incorporation- solid manure
• Timing right after planting
• Storage
• Sealed cover tank- liquid manure (at least 200
  days)
• Covered storage pad- solid manure

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Recommended adaptation/mitigation strategies for
SK agriculture (cont.)

• Improve use of mineral fertilizers
• Application method
• Soil injection- liquid fertilizer and anhydrous
  ammonia
• Banding- dry fertilizer
• Timing right after planting
• Avoid oversupply (discount manure nutrients)
• Soil test (at least 3 yrs intervals)
• Improve understanding of climate change and
  models of regional/biome estimates

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Conclusions

• Community thinking
• People research industry government
  non-governmental organizations
• People- improve consumption choices, reduce
  consumption lifestyle sustainability
• Research- sustainable options
• Industry- ?efficiency

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Conclusions (cont.)

• Government
• Bring all players together (public education
  public consultation process government
  industry research non-government
  organizations)
• Focus research on evaluation of sustainable
  options - international experience? Conservation
  of native biodiversity (species, genetic,
  ecosystem) and habitat
• Support changes (e.g. tax relief, subsidies,
  programmes)
• Raise community thinking to a GLOBAL level-
  exchange international experience (technology,
  policy, lifestyle)

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Questions?