Global Earth Observations

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Global Earth Observations

• Charles F. Kennel
• Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
• January 2004

With thanks to Lisa Shaffer, John Orcutt, Larry
Smarr, Ed Frieman
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Humans have transformed the earth in the last 50
years
City Lights from Space
Water, ozone, global air pollution, climate
change, ecosystems
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Predicting climate on seasonal-to-interannual
timescales

• Understanding climate variability on
  seasonal-to-interannual timescales offers some
  of the most direct benefits In particular,
  better prediction of precipitation is of special
  interest for water and energy resource
  management, agriculture, and a variety of other
  factors related to general human well-being.
• Global Environmental Change Research Pathways
  for the Next Decade, NRC, 1998

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Biology and biogeochemistry of ecosystems

• The ecosystems of the world are critical
  foundations of human society. People depend on
  ecosystems extensively for goods and services,
  such commodities as food, construction materials,
  and pharmaceuticals. Humanitys dependence on
  the biosphere for climate regulation, air
  quality, and clean water has become starkly
  apparent.
• Global Environmental Change Research Pathways
  for the Next Decade, NRC, 1998

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Decadal-Century Climate Changes

• Determining the role of anthropogenic forcing
  is inseparable from understanding the natural
  system. specifically, greater knowledge is
  needed of tropospheric aerosols and the carbon
  cycle. The subtlety of slow change over long
  timescales can disguise its potential long-term
  severity and thus societys willingness to
  address potential problems in advance.
• Global Environmental Change Research Pathways
  for the Next Decade, NRC, 1998

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Change in the Chemistry of the Atmosphere

• Atmospheric chemistry provides the scientific
  foundations to understand a number of phenomena
  that are part of global change including
  changes in UV dosage at the Earths surface,
  change in acid levels of deposition in a variety
  of ecosystems Work on the chemistry of the
  atmosphere provides hard examples of how the
  scientific method can succeed in guiding public
  policy.
• Global Environmental Change Research Pathways
  for the Next Decade, NRC, 1998

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Human Dimensions

• The human consequences of global change are due
  at least as much to the social systems that
  produce vulnerability as to the environmental
  changes themselves.
• Global Environmental Change Research Pathways
  for the Next Decade, NRC, 1998

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Earth System Science

• In addition to dealing with eons past, earth
  science has a new focus on the geological here
  and now- predict the next hundred years.
• We are creating an interdisciplinary panorama of
  the earth as it is today and as it will be
  tomorrow.
• We are taking into account the human activities
  that influence earths systems
• Earth system science can now make useful
  forecasts in fields beyond weather
• The entire enterprise requires an earth observing
  system of global scale

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Global Earth Observing System

• Human Architecture
• Multi-Sensor Networks
• Cyber-Infrastructure
• Decision-Support Systems

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Human Architecture

• Global Change Research Act of 1990
• Calls for global measurements, establishing
  worldwide observations necessary to understand
  the physical, chemical, and biological processes
  responsible for changes in the Earth system on
  all relevant spatial and time scales, as well as
  documentation of global change, including the
  development of mechanisms for recording changes
  that will actually occur in the Earth system over
  the coming decades.
• International Global Observing Strategy
• (OSTP, July 17, 1995)
• The Global Observing System would be an
  internationally coordinated system of mutually
  funded experimental and operational space-based
  and in situ data acquisition, archive, and
  distribution systems and programs for earth
  observations and environmental monitoring.

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Human Architecture

• Declaration of the Earth Observation Summit
• We, the participants in this Earth Observation
  Summit held in Washington, DC, on July 31, 2003
  Affirm the need for timely, quality, long-term,
  global information as a basis for sound decision
  making.
• Observing the Future Industry Meeting on Earth
  Observations, January 28, 2004

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Multi-Sensor Networks

• Remotely sensed and in situ
• Spacecraft, aircraft, ships, moorings, floats,
• Radars, lidars, physical, chemical and
  biological sensors
• Oceans, atmosphere, land, ice
• Global to regional to local

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NASAs Earth Sensorweb
The Earth Sensorweb Concept Involves Satellites
Working In Intelligent Constellations, Adapting
To Observed And Modeled Changes And Delivering
Tailored Information Products From Space To
Science Users
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NSF Ocean Observatory Networks
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NOAA/DOD/NASA National Polar Orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)
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Cyber-Infrastructure

• Information management and architecture

Computing
Modeling
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Cyber-Infrastructure Enabled Science Engineering
NSF Report on Revolutionizing Science and
Engineering through Cyber-Infrastructure (Atkins
Report) www.communitytechnology.org/nsf_ci_report
/
High-performance computing
for modeling, simulation, data
processing/mining
Humans
Instruments for
observation and
characterization.
Individual
Global Connectivity
Group Interfaces
Physical World
Visualization
Facilities for activation,
manipulation and
Collaboration
construction
Services
Knowledge management
institutions for collection building
and curation of data, information,
literature, digital objects
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Beyond Indicators to Decision-Support Tools

• If we connect GEO to effective decision support
  systems, then it will become a principal tool for
  achieving sustainability on a global scale.

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Global Observations - Global Decisions

• Food
• Energy
• Poverty alleviation
• Human health
• Species and ecosystems
• Water
• Economic growth and equity
• Population

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Global Observations - Local Decisions

• Avoid loss of life and property from severe
  events and natural hazards
• Longer-term risk management
• Infrastructure management
• Resource allocation decisions
• Finance and budgeting understanding seasonality
  anticipating emergency preparedness and response
• Siting of facilities
• Design and landscaping water and energy use

• Construction and property maintenance,
  engineering
• Public relations/ marketing/communications
• Operations when to plan production to harvest
  to schedule promotional events
• Regulatory compliance
• Travel and routing
• Emergency preparedness
• -- derived from NOAA report on Tourism by Mary
  Altalo et al, SAIC 2002

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Climate variations
El Nino North
Pacific Oscillation (NPO)
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affect energy
supply
demand
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and therefore decisions.
Environment vs. Hydropower
Urban vs. Agriculture
Long term contracts vs. Spot market
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Why does California need observing systems?

• Improve energy management
• Forecast changes in water availability
• Forecast water quality at Californias beaches
• Management of coastal resources

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From Global Ocean Data To Peoples Lives
Data Assimilation
Altimetry
XBT
Ocean Heat/freshwater Storage
Feedback To Atmosphere
Climate/weather Predictions
Information about Agriculture, Sea Level, Health
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Short Term Climate and Energy Consumption Big
events can change load by 500 MW (gt1 of total).
Direct cost of this power 250K/breeze day (40
days/year 10M/year)
Sep 25, 2002 No delta breeze winds carrying hot
air down California Central valley. Power
consumption high.
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California Energy Security ProjectTim Barnett,
David Pierce Scripps Inst. Oceanography Universit
y of Washington Georgia Inst. Tech PacifiCorp SAIC
California Energy Commission California
ISO San Diego Gas Elec. SoCal Gas
Delta Breeze
Sep 26, 2002 Delta breeze starts up power
consumption drops gt500 MW compared to the day
before!
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Water-Energy interaction
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A small temperature change could mean a big
change in water availability from the Sierra
Nevada
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San Diego Coastal Ocean Observing System
Monitoring the Health of San Diego Coastal Waters
California Clean Beach Initiative Partners
academic scientists (SIO) with end users (City of
Imperial Beach, County Department of Health,
Regional Water Quality Board)
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Combination of HF RADAR CURRENTS with OCEAN COLOR
satellite data 2/5/03
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70 decline of Zooplankton biomass with 1.2
1.4 ºC warming increased thermal
stratification
High resolution spatial maps of fish egg
distributions used for resource management
black sardine eggs red anchovy eggs
Roemmich and McGowan
Checkley et al.
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Evolving Role of the Science Community
Originating science, creating models,
developing observing technologies Designing
observing strategies and systems
Transferring designs, technologies, models, and
tested systems to the public and private
sectors Partnering in the governance and
management of long-term observing and decision
support systems Infusing new objectives and
technologies into on-going systems Linking new
capabilities to new users
Universities are becoming more multi-disciplinary
and service-oriented
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New Management Concepts are Required

• System of systems
• Multi-sector consortia
• Standards
• Interoperability
• Open communication
• Evolving, adaptive

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The Grand Convergence

• The convergence of earth science and information
  technology will lead to continuous awareness of
  earths systems and their interactions with human
  activities.
• We will use continuous awareness to manage our
  resources and environment, and our response to
  disasters
• Continuous awareness will promote integrated
  responses to emerging global environmental
  challenges

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Observe Globally
Model Regionally
Act Locally
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Think Globally
Model Regionally
Observe Locally
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What we do in the next fifty years will determine
our planet's environmental destiny
Girl on beach, next 10 years .
What we do in the next ten years will determine
what is possible in the next fifty