Ronald J. Birk

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Science and Space Systems benefiting
SocietyAccelerated testing of NASA Flight
Missions and Predictive Capabilities for Decision
Support through Rapid Prototyping

• Ronald J. Birk
• Applied Sciences Program
• NASA Science Mission Directorate

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2006 NASA Strategic Plan
NASA Strategic Goal 3 Develop a balanced overall
program of science, exploration, and aeronautics
consistent with the redirection of human
spaceflight program to focus on exploration.
NASA Sub-Goal 3A Study Earth from space to
advance scientific understanding and meet
societal needs.
NASAs partnership efforts in global modeling and
data assimilation over the next decade will
shorten the distance from observations to answers
for important, leading-edge science questions.
NASAs Applied Sciences program will continue the
Agencys efforts in benchmarking the assimilation
of NASA research results into policy and
management decision-support tools that are vital
for the Nations environment, economy, safety,
and security. NASA also is working with NOAA and
inter-agency forums to transition mature research
capabilities to operational systems, primarily
the polar and geostationary operational
environmental satellites, and to utilize fully
those assets for research purposes.
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Stage Setting Questions

• What is the approach for enabling FY07 and beyond
  Decisions proposals to include the use of NASA
  next generation space-based observations and
  predictive capabilities?
• How do we accelerate Evaluation and VV Reports
  on the use of next generation NASA systems to
  contribute to a comprehensive, coordinated, and
  sustained Global Earth Observation System of
  Systems (GEOSS)?
• How do we accelerate adoption of innovative
  capabilities resulting from NASA research into
  future operational systems?
• What are the opportunities for industry? For
  government agencies? for international
  partnerships? For academia? For state, local, and
  tribal governments?

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Fundamental Questions

• What is rapid prototyping?
• What is the hurry?
• Who participates and how?
• What are the measures of success and progress?
• What is the focus of NASAs Applied Sciences RPC?

• Apollo era
• When they said, "Let's go to the Moon" -
  everybody didn't
• just stand around saying "What am I supposed to
  do?" or
• "Send me a directive" or "What's the procedure
  for going to the Moon?"

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Systematic Approach RPC in Context
demand
Research and Analysis Program
supply
Applied Sciences Program
Operations
Crosscutting Solutions
National Applications
Government Agencies National Organizations
NASA Earth-Sun System Research
Uncertainty Analysis
Integrated System Solutions
Rapid Prototyping Capacity
Solutions Network
Societal Benefits
Scientific Rigor
Evaluation
Pre-Evaluation
Verification/Validation
Benchmark
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Prototype Demonstration - Transition Timeline
The FY05 IBPD Earth-Sun System, Objective 14,
states 14.1 Transfer 30 percent of NASA
developed research results and observations to
operational Agencies.
Pressing issues include timing and targets of
opportunity
Budget Support
R2O demo
4 yr Solicitation Cycle
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Flight Missions in formulation/development
MC
IT
PDR
LRD
CDR
IT
CDR
LRD 6/15
EOPM
CDR
LRD 9/15
EOPM
MC
IT
CDR
PDR
LRD Jan.
CDR
LRD 3/23
EOPM
CDR
LRD 12/19
EOPM
LRD Sept
LRD Launch Readiness Date EOPM End of Prime
Mission PDR Preliminary Design Review CDR
Critical Design Review MC Manufacturing
Completed IT Integration Test Completed
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NASA Earth Science Missions/Instruments
(CY06-CY13)
Total of 20 instruments
Based on best available information as of 4/12/06
Joint NASA - International Partner Mission
NASA Mission on US ELV
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• OCO
• Spectro-meters

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• OSTM
• GPS
• RLA
• SSALT
• DORIS
• WSOA
• AMR

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of Instruments
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• CloudSat
• CPR

• NPP
• CrIS
• OMPS
• ATMS
• VIIRS

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• Aquarius
• Radiometer

• CALIPSO
• WFC
• IIR
• CALIOP

2

• GPM
• DRR
• GMI

• Glory
• TIM
• APS

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• LDCM
• Operational Land Imager

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2012
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Laboratories working to improve predictive
capabilities
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NASA Modeling, Assimilation, and Prediction (MAP)
Environment Integrating Earth System Modeling
and Observations
Coupled Earth SYSTEM Modeling and Data
Assimilation System for Earth-Sun Science
2006 NASA Modeling Environment
2005 Project Hurricane
GEOS-5
fvGCM (GEOS4)
JCSDA/GSI
Project Columbia
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RPC Candidate Experiment Configuration
Potential Partners
EARTH SYSTEM MODELS
RAPID PROTOTYPING VV DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS
Predictions

• ESMF Climate Models
• GISS Model E
• GMAO

• Plummer and Phillips, 2005 Watershed Model
• National ProgramsCCSP, CCTP, USGEO

• Global/Regional/Water-shed scale model outputs
• Regional aerosol and trace gas concentrations
  and impacts on climatology
• 12 18 month seasonal forecasts,
• 5 20 year projections,
• Century timescale projections

VALUE BENEFITS

• Impacts of global climate change on the Watershed
  scale
• Water resource management on local scale
• Climate-change impacts on waste- management
  facility sighting
• Decision support with uncertainty quantified and
  communicated (NSF as a partner)

• Natural anthropogenic aerosols, black carbon
• Trace gas profiles
• Climate-Change Parameters
• Tropical/Global/Regional Precipitation
• Total Aerosols

EARTH OBSERVATIONS

• Atmosphere Aura, TRMM, OCO, CALIPSO, CloudSat,
  GPM
• Ocean Aquarius
• Land ICESat, MODIS
• Field Mission Watershed scale overflights

Observations
Draft For Discussion Purposes Mod. - DeWayne
Cecil 4/19/06
Uncertainty Analysis and Scientific Rigor
Next Generation Missions
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Challenges for FY06

• Developing 6-10 experiment configurations for RPC
• Conducting 6-10 experiments to prototype
  appropriate research results into next generation
  versions of integrated solutions
• Documenting and publishing the experiments and
  results for assimilating new flight mission and
  MAP science data products into decision support
  tools
• Characterizing uncertainty of model forecasts for
  weather, climate, and natural hazards
• Using available tools, including OSSEs, Project
  Columbia FastPath, SpaceTime Toolkit, ESG, etc.
  
• Preparing to support National Program Mgrs with
  demonstrations for partnering agencies and
  organizations

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Applications of National Priority
Public Health
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Who provides policy and management decision
support information?

• Air traffic controllers and pilots
• Agribusiness commodities brokers
• USA Today (air quality index)
• Public health officials
• Water managers
• Renewable energy sites

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Where do they get their operational space-based
geoscience information?

• Federal Aviation Administration
• US Department of Agriculture
• Environmental Protection Agency
• Centers for Disease Control
• Bureau of Reclamation
• Department of Energy

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Where do they get their space-based Earth
science research and technology?

• U.S. Geological Survey
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Earth Science FY07 Budget
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NASA ResearchSpacecraft inFormulation/Developme
nt
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2006 Earth Science Solicitations
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Application Focus Areas and Partners
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Integrating Knowledge, Capacity and Systems into
Solutions
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Funded Applied Sciences Projects

• REASoN 14 2 Years
• Decisions 04 22 Just contracted
• Decisions 05 21 Just selected
• Center Projects 15 OTO 3 years
• Total 70
• Delivered 10 benchmark reports accessible on the
  http//aiwg.gsfc.nasa.gov web site (and profiled
  in the May issue of Earth Imaging Journal

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Earth Science Researchfor Air Quality Assessment
TOMS-EP
Downlink
Exploitation
EOSDIS DAACs
October 21-23, 2004
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Smoke from Alaskan/Yukon Fires 18 July 2004
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Smoke from Alaskan/Yukon Fires 19 July 2004
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EPA AirNow PM2.5
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Daily Air Quality Assessments
www.epa.gov/airnow
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RD for a National Integrated Drought Information
System
Jason
Downlink
Exploitation
EOSDIS DAACs
October 21-23, 2004
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Integrating Snow Cover information
Variation in global snow cover for the period
from 2001- 2002 derived from NASA observations
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Evaluating 12 Month Coupled Climate Forecasts
for Soil Moisture
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Earth Science for Coastal Management
SeaWiFs
Downlink
Exploitation
Harmful Algal Bloom Bulletin
EOSDIS DAACs
October 21-23, 2004
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Ecosystems Management enabled by Prototyping
Center
SIAM-SERVIR Decision Support Center in Panama
City
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Global System for Earth Observations Integrating
Orbital, Suborbital, and In Situ Components
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DRAFT
Earth System Science Measurements Roadmap
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A C DE E F F G G H H I I J K K L L M N N O O P Q
Q R R S T U U
L-band LEO InSAR
Global Trop Winds
High Res. CO2
L-band MEO InSAR
Tropospheric Composition
Global Trop Aerosols
Veg. Vert. Struct.
Adv. Land Cover Change/Biomass
OCO
LEO Wetland and River Monitor
LDCM
OSTM
Ocean Topography
Ocean Surface Winds
Deep Soil Moisture
HYDROS
Global Soil Moisture
Wide Swath LIDAR
Cold Land Process
LEO Strat Aerosol
GPM
3D Rain Profiler
Ice Elevation Imager
ICESat Follow-on
Coastal Carbon
GEO Coastal Carbon
GEO InSAR Constellation
Total Column Ozone
Strat Comp
Profiles of Strat Comp
Atm.. Constituents
Laser Interfer. Gravity Gradiometer
Quantum Gravity Gradiometer
Black Carbon
Earth Atmospheric Solar Interferometer
Physiology Functional Types
Profiles of Ocean Part./Photosynthetic Eff.
Global Ocean Carbon
Ocean Struct Circulation
Cloud System Structure
Cloudsat/CALIPSO
Cloud Particle Structure
Geo Doppler Rain Profiler
Atm. Comp., Water Vapor, TP
GPM
Geo Global Precipitation
Geo Lightning Imager
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Linking Earth System Models using Earth
Observations
Predict
Whole Earth Modeling Capability
Weather
With real-time model -measurement feedback and
optimization
Understand
Climate
Atmos. Comp.
Water Cycle
Biosphere/Carbon
Solid Earth
Characterize
1990
2010
2025
2000
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Implementation Pathways
Now
Then

10-20 Years

xxx
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U.S. Plans for Climate, Earth Observations,
Weather, Oceans, Disasters,
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Intellectual Leadership