ENERGY SECURITY

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ENERGY SECURITY SUSTAINABILITY

• TOM BURKE
• ROTHERHAM TOWN HALL
• OCTOBER 27TH 2006

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PUBLIC GOODS

• CLIMATE SECURITY
• ENERGY SECURITY
• electricity generation
• transport fuels

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we have got to start from the brutal honesty
about the politics of how we deal with it. The
truth is no country is going to cut its growth or
consumption substantially in the light of a
long-term environmental problem
TONY BLAIR
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WHITHER THE SCIENCE?

• EXETER CONCLUSIONS
• 20C
• 0.70C
• 0.70C
• 380 ppm, 2.0ppm, 400ppm
• OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
• 4AR 2007

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(No Transcript)
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STERN

• 1
• 5 20

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Phase II Carbon prices dominate
Regulation, taxation, carbon markets, investment
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THE TOOL KIT

• Regulation
• Taxation
• Carbon pricing
• Expenditure
• Exhortation
• Voluntary measures

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DIFFERING DYNAMICS

• COAL - ELECTRICITY
• OIL - TRANSPORT FUELS
• GAS - HEAT FEEDSTOCK
• ELECTRICITY COAL, GAS, NUCLEAR, HYDRO,
  RENEWABLES

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COAL
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WEO 2004

• 1400
• 600 China
• 200 India
• 600 RoW

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145GtC
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IMPERATIVES

• THERE IS NO POLITICALLY AVAILABLE ROUTE TO A
  STABLE CLIMATE THAT DOES NOT INVOLVE CHINESE,
  INDIAN AND AMERICAN COAL
• PREVENTING LOCK IN TO CARBON INTENSIVE
  TECHNOLOGIES IN CHINA AND ELSEWHERE IS THE MOST
  URGENT PRIORITY (1400 BY 2030 )
• THIS WILL REQUIRE MAJOR PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN IGCC
  AND CCS IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES
• SUCH INVESTMENT WILL ALSO BRING ENERGY SECURITY,
  COMPETITIVENESS, INNOVATION AND ECONOMIC AND
  POLITICAL STABILITY BENEFITS.

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• OIL

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• STOP DIGGING HOLES
• REDUCE DEPENDENCY

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• GAS

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SECURING ACCESS

• ENFORCE EXISTING POLICY
• ENHANCE COMPETITION
• ACCELERATE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
• INTEGRATE GRIDS
• INCREASE STORAGE

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• ELECTRICITY

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• COAL
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• RENEWABLES MICROGENERATION
• NUCLEAR LIFE EXTENSION

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SIX PROVOCATIONS

• The problem is far more urgent than you think.
• Governments will not act in time.
• Business is badly prepared to play its part
• Economists not helping much prices and costs
  dont work.
• Coal first.
• We are not thinking about the right problem