Dr. Laura S. L. Kong

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UNESCO IOC TSUNAMI PROGRAMME
PEOPLE-CENTRED TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
The Challenge of Building Preparedness at the
National and Local Levels

• Dr. Laura S. L. Kong
• Director, UNESCO IOC ITIC
• Seismology and Tsunami Warnings
• Malaysia, 21-25 August 2006
• Maldives, 27-31 August 2006
• Sri Lanka, 30 August 2006

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WHY IS A TSUNAMI A HAZARD?

• WAVE HEIGHTS GROW IN SHALLOW WATER
• Best Case Quickly Rising Tide
• Worst Case Wall of water with rocks
• and debris
• Runups gt 30 m

April 1, 1946 Aleutian Islands
earthquake Hilo, Hawaii
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WHY IS A TSUNAMI A HAZARD?

• DANGER CONTINUES FOR MANY HOURS
• HIGH FATALITY HAZARD
• GLOBAL IMPACT blind to political boundaries

Locally,
arrives in
minutes Distant,

travels hours across
Ocean
300,000 deaths - 11 countries 1 million displaced
Myanmar - 100
16,389
8,327
Somalia - 430
80
35,262
Kenya - 1
Seychelles - 3
220,149
Tanzania - 10
Maldives - 108
Casualties Data source International Federation
of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 9 March
2005
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2 TSUNAMI THREATS

• LOCAL / REGIONAL
• Generated nearby
• Strikes shore quickly (in minutes)
• gt NO TIME for official evacuation
• Education, Awareness
• People-centered response recognize / act
  immediately
• DISTANT / OCEAN-WIDE
• Generated far away, instr detection
• Strikes shore later (2 hours)
• gt TIME for official evacuation
• Widespread Damage
• Tsunami Warning Centre, then
  
• People-centered response locally-guided safety
  actions

July 12, 1993,Japan Sea
May 22, 1960, Chile tsunami in Hilo
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TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM

• An EFFECTIVE system means
• All persons in
• vulnerable coastal communities
• are prepared
• to respond appropriately, and
  
• in a timely manner
• upon recognition
• that a potentially destructive tsunami
• may be approaching.

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THE NEXT DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI
ITS NOT IF, BUT WHEN
gt ASSESS gt WARN gt PREPARE
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TWS SYSTEM COMPONENTS END-TO-END SYSTEM MUST
EXIST!
Develop National and Regional Capacity to

• 1. Assess national tsunami
  risk (Hazard assessment)
• 2. Establish national / regional warning center
  against local and regional tsunamis (Warning
  guidance)
• 3. Promote education/preparedness and
  risk reduction against tsunami hazard
  (Mitigation and Public Awareness)

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LESSONS LEARNED Early Warning System Saves Lives

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Strong buildings and safe structures assist
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level advocacy sustains

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Mitigation Countermeasures reduce impact
• Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level Advocacy sustains

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LESSONS LEARNED Early Warning System Saves Lives

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Strong buildings and safe structures assist
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level advocacy sustains

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Mitigation Countermeasures reduce impact
• Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level Advocacy sustains

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THREE BASIC WARNING NEEDS

• VERY RAPID
  EARTHQUAKE EVAL
• VERY RAPID
  SEA LEVEL EVAL
• VERY RELIABLE COMMUNICATIONS
• Multi-national, Global Nets
• Real-time transmission
• Data Sharing
• ALL REQUIRED
• FOR WARNING

IOC GLOSS Network, including real-time, non-real
time, archive
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Improving Warning Guidance Real-time, deep ocean,
tsunami detection
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Risk Reduction Strategy Warning Guidance
Early Detection
COMPONENT TECHNOLOGY PRODUCT
WARNING Measurement Real-Time
Data GUIDANCE Telecomm
Early Detection Numerical Wave
Forecast Simulation Warning
Dissem
to the last
km
Evaluation time Tele-tsunamis
15 min
60 min
3
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4 hrs to Hawaii 3 hrs to evacuate
Local tsunamis
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LESSONS LEARNED Early Warning System Saves Lives

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Strong buildings and safe structures assist
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level advocacy sustains

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Mitigation Countermeasures reduce impact
• Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level Advocacy sustains

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TSUNAMI Early Warning Overview
Earthquake Tsunami
National Government
Local Government
Tsunami Warning Center
What is Tsunami?
People
Where is Evacuation Route?
Mass Media
International - Regional Framework
National Warning System
Public Awareness
Cabinet Office Japan
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Communication Transmission of Tsunami Warning
to Localities Civil Defense Authorities
Central Government
Local government
TSUNAMI WARNING
Radio
TV / Radio Station
TV(Telops, Warning maps)
Cabinet Office Japan
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Alert WarningTechnology assists people-based
warnings

• Getting warning to responders
• Getting warning to public
• Use table top exercises to identify problems and
  for training
• Conduct drills in the community
• Test the notification systems

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RANET Product Delivery - application
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LESSONS LEARNED Early Warning System Saves Lives

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Strong buildings and safe structures assist
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level advocacy sustains

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Mitigation Countermeasures reduce impact
• Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level Advocacy sustains

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JAPAN TSUNAMI SAFETY
Tsunami attacks immediately short after a
strongly felt earthquake !
Tsunami approaches with high speed!
Tsunami has a destructive force!
Tsunami attacks repeatedly!
First tsunami wave is not always largest!
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Tsunami Public Awareness Localization
Japan ADRC
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LESSONS LEARNED Early Warning System Saves Lives

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Strong buildings and safe structures assist
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level advocacy sustains

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Mitigation Countermeasures reduce impact
• Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level Advocacy sustains

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TsunamiReady Program

• 24-hour warning point
• Duplication of communication systems
• Workshops
• Tsunami Plan
• Exercises

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Keys to Community SuccessIdentify a Tsunami
Champion

• Locally connected
• Passionate about
• community
• Advocate for safety
• Strong skills
• Communication
• Organizing
• Volunteer-raising
• Group facilitation
• Creativity
• Energetic

Seaside Tsunami Outreach Coordinator, Darci
Connor
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Tsunami-Prepared Model Village, April
2005 Balapitiya, Sri Lanka Pop 450, Casualties 12
Helicpter Landing Area
Rescue shelters
Alarm
Evacuation routes
Disabled persons
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PEOPLE-CENTREDEXERCISES, DRILLS, EDUCATION

• Government Preparedness
• Worst Case Scenarios
• Emergency Response Exercises
• Pre-Disaster Mitigation (structural,
  non-structural, policy, awareness/education)
• Educate highest government leaders,
  utility companies, hotels and resorts,
  beach lifeguards/safety officers, first
  responders for evacuation and immediate aftermath
• Public Preparedness
• What if Im on the beach?
• What if Im in a boat fishing?
• What to do? Where to go? What about my family?
• The roles of schools, community organizations
  (social, religious, cultural, ethnic, gender, age
  )
• Educate to respond appropriately

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• State Evacuation Map Shows
  routes for Safe Public Exit

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Evacuation Maps Safe Routes

• Communities make maps
• Identify ALL Stakeholders
• Workshops with Local Residents
• Single Access Roads
• Congregation areas
• Walking the route

Tsunami evacuation maps locally-developed
from modeling, maps and local histories
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LESSONS LEARNED Early Warning System Saves Lives

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Strong buildings and safe structures assist
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level advocacy sustains

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Mitigation Countermeasures reduce impact
• Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level Advocacy sustains

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Multi-purpose Evacuation ShelterNishiki Tower,
Mie Prefecture, Japan
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Bangladesh Cyclone Shelter Deep pile
foundations with breakaway shear walls
Tsunami Vertical Evacuation Shelter
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Tsunami Model Village-2 PERALIYA, SRI
LANKA PROPOSED COMMUNITY CENTER AS A TSUNAMI
SHELTER Casualties train 1500 village-
400/1200 Geol Survey Mines Bureau Dept of
Meteorology
4 m
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Research to ApplicationEngineering Structural
Response to Tsunami Loading - 2005

• Vertical evacuation in multi-story reinforced
  concrete (and structural steel) buildings may be
  appropriate policy for
• All near-source tsunamis
• Remote-source tsunamis
  in densely populated
  areas where horizontal
  evacuation is not feasible
• Research still needed
  before policy adoption

Vertical evacuation, Waikiki, Hawaii, 1994
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LESSONS LEARNED Early Warning System Saves Lives

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Strong buildings and safe structures assist
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level advocacy sustains

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Mitigation Countermeasures reduce impact
• Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level Advocacy sustains

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INTERNATIONAL TSUNAMI HAZARD MITIGATION
WARNING CENTER OPERATORS Pacific, Indian Ocean,
Mediterranean
Tsunami Warning Centers
IOTWS NATIONALLOCAL
GOVT, NGO EMERGENCY MANAGERS Civil Defense Local
Authorities
TSUNAMI SCIENTISTS University and Govt
Researchers
Comprehensive Tsunami Risk Reduction
Stakeholders build Tsunami Resilient Community

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SOCIAL SCIENCE PERPSECTIVES FROM AWARENESS TO
PREPAREDNESS COMMUNITY EMPOWERMENT

• Level of preparation and readiness to act
  sensitive to several moderating variables
• Perceived responsibility - is it govt or is it
  you?
• Response efficiency - are you ready?
• Sense of community - are your neighbors
  important?
• The timing of the next tsunami or the last
  tsunami

IGNS
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LESSONS LEARNED Early Warning System Saves Lives

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Strong buildings and safe structures assist
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level advocacy sustains

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Mitigation Countermeasures reduce impact
• Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level Advocacy sustains

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Small Island Challenges

• DISASTERS have a major impact on
  sustainable development
• FRAGILE economies and environments
• INCREASING urbanisation, coastal populations
• SCATTERED distribution of islands and peoples
  across vast ocean spaces impedes early warnings
• WEAK institutions
• Legal, policy arrangements
• LIMITED capacity to deal with disasters

Cristelle Pratt, SOPAC Director, June, 2005
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Strengthening the NDMOs

• Relevant National Disaster Reduction Plans and
  Public Awareness programmes in place
• Closer links to national planning
• Clear job descriptions and accountabilities
• Relevant skills and qualifications
• Succession planning
• Technological support

Cristelle Pratt, SOPAC Director, June, 2005
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High Level Advocacy

• Disasters and Sustainable Development
• Benefits of Whole-of-Government Approach
• Public Safety and Risk Management
• Benefits of Mainstreaming Risk Management
• Implementing CHARM (Pacific)
  (comprehensive hazard
  assessment and risk
  management)

Cristelle Pratt, SOPAC Director, June, 2005
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LESSONS LEARNED Early Warning System Saves Lives

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Strong buildings and safe structures assist
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level advocacy sustains

• Proper Instruments detect early
• Warning informs
• Awareness enables
• Preparedness guides
• Planning means faster response
• Mitigation Countermeasures reduce impact
• Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use
• Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
• High-level Advocacy sustains

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Keys to System Effectiveness People drive All
Hazards Response

• Warning System Design
• Feedback Loop
• is it working if not, why?
• Scientist Public interaction
• Response System should be
• Robust, Rapid
• Well-organized
• Appropriate for country
• Community Issues
• Suffer main impact
• Spec issues-women, poverty
• Each community unique
• They are the first responders
• Empowerment, risk tolerance

OFDA, USA
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THANK YOU
International Tsunami Information
Centre Honolulu, Hawaii ioc.unesco.org/itsu www.t
sunamiwave.info