FUTURE STUDIES

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FUTURE STUDIES

• FUTURING 14
• ROAD MAPPING FUTURES
• A COURSE FOR
• UNIVERSITY OF ST. THOMAS
• by
• Earl C. Joseph, Futurist

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TOPICS COVERED

• PHILOSOPHY
• ROAD MAP STRATEGY
• FUTURE/IMPACT WHEEL
• PERT
• BIBLIOGRAPHY

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PHILOSOPHY

• Forecasts and plans are time lines that map
  possible futures
• Mapping the future or creating something involves
  a road-mapping process
• Road Mapping is a process of Foresight planning
• Road Mapping is a process often used in
  Technology or Product development
• In today's complex world of interdependent
  economic, social, political, and technological
  (SEPT) systems, each event and development has a
  multitude of diverse impacts, and those impacts
  in turn produce consequences that have additional
  impacts of their own, each on different time-lines

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MORE PHILOSOPHY

• Road mapping related time-line forecasting tools,
  processes, and methodologies
• Road Mapping process
• Futures Wheel or Impact Wheel
• PERT Project/Product/Program Evaluation and
  Reporting Technique
• Flow Charts
• Maps of critical events
• Future Mapping is a method by which ones
  behavior is changed, and then attitude and change
  are maintained
• Knowledge of possible futures affects our
  behavior in the present

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ROAD MAP STRATEGY - 1

• A Road Map Strategy is the means by which a team
  reaches a common understanding of the activities,
  their timing, and terminology to be used in
  product planning
• The Road Map Strategy encompasses a central Road
  Map repository and the individual Road Maps being
  developed for each product or technology
• A Road Map repository centralizes all incoming
  internal and client enhancement requests in a
  unique repository with searching, grouping, and
  timing abilities

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ROAD MAP STRATEGY - 2

• A Road Map repository has several advantages it
  is a universally accessible tool where
  individually identified requests can be viewed,
  giving better visibility and traceability, while
  preventing information loss
• It also delivers enhanced manageability, and can
  perform queries on various criteria (e.g.,
  segment, product, functionality, timing, severity
  or age of the request) for a better analysis it
  can group individual requests on a variety of
  bases, be they cross-functional (e.g., user
  interface), cross-segment (e.g., reporting),
  intra-segment or functional (e.g. order
  management capability for asset management)

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ROAD MAP STRATEGY - 3

• The Road Map repository also includes a list of
  functional or technical features for each
  segment, reflecting its strategic direction
• A Road Map has a Strategic Focus, determined by
  management for each version
• The Strategic Focus is a list of prioritized
  areas of functionality, expressed as early as
  possible in the scoping process, which reflects
  Managements vision and strategies

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ROAD MAP STRATEGY - 4

• The Road Map process is a continuous one, whereby
  all incoming requests are progressively evaluated
  before the scope of a new version is defined
• Through this process, management is able to
  identify those requests that will be developed in
  the future, analyze their complexity and
  functional or technical impact, and manage the
  timing of their delivery

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ROAD MAP STRATEGY - 5

• When the time comes to define the scope of the
  next version of a given product, all potential
  enhancements are gathered from the Road Map
  repository, reassessed and reprioritized in more
  detail
• The final assessment and selection for the new
  version is then made
• Once the scope of a version is set, all requests
  that were considered, yet not included, are rated
  as potential candidates for any future version
• Strategic Focus is used as a guide to ensure that
  the most crucial items of the version are
  delivered

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ROAD MAP STRATEGY - 6

• Foresight and Technology Road Mapping is vitally
  important if organizations are effectively to
• Identify critical technologies required to meet
  future business needs
• Support technology investment decisions
• Forecast technology developments and impacts on
  business processes

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ROAD MAP STRATEGY - 7

• Business forecasters use Future Mapping to
• Rethink business strategies and business models
• Acquire industry foresight and explore the
  evolution of current business models
• Collaborate and share different views on emerging
  related issues
• Document the company's change in thinking
• Broaden understanding of the market dynamics
• Align management team members behind new
  strategic directions
• Redirect the role or function of a business unit

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ROAD MAP STRATEGY - 8

• Using interactive group exercises, 10-20
  decision-makers from an organization participate
  in scenario-related teams
• Tasks are designed to promote the exchange of
  points of views and to encourage group learning
• Each team explores and evaluates alternative
  visions of the future of the business, called
  end states
• They learn to identify and select critical
  milestones leading to these end states by
  analyzing a diverse information base of possible
  future events

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FUTURE/IMPACT WHEEL - 1

• A Future/Impact Wheel is a tool to investigate a
  multitude of potential SEPT interactions
  requiring forecasts to identify future
  opportunities or problems that may be generated
  by current trends, events, or developments
• It is a simple analytical tool designed to help
  planners and decision-makers to more fully
  explore the potential consequences of specific
  predictable future realities, and to identify
  implications for their markets, resources,
  regulatory environment, etc., that they might
  otherwise fail to anticipate

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FUTURE/IMPACT WHEEL - 2

• A growing body of research indicates that most
  economic cycles, and most dramatic business
  successes and failures can be traced to
  misassumptions about the consequences of change
• Consequences of change depicted in Impact/Future
  Wheels have been described by some forecasters as
  "structured brainstorming"
• An example http//www.gsu.edu/mstnrhx/wheel.htm

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PERT - 1

• A PERT chart is a project management tool used to
  schedule, organize, and coordinate tasks within a
  project.
• PERT stands for Program Evaluation Review
  Technique
• Its a methodology developed by the U.S. Navy in
  the 1950s to manage the Polaris submarine missile
  program
• A similar methodology, the Critical Path Method
  (CPM), was developed for project management in
  the private sector at about the same time
• The technique is now known by any variation on
  the names PERT, CPM, or PERT/CPM.

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PERT - 2

• A PERT chart presents a graphic illustration of a
  project
• Its a network diagram consisting of numbered
  nodes (either circles or rectangles) representing
  events, or milestones in the project linked by
  labelled vectors (directional lines) representing
  tasks in the project
• Examples
• http//www.robertluttman.com/Week4/page5.htm
• http//www.primavera.com/products/pdf/stmmcd/demo/
  planning/primavera1.html

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• BIBLIOGRAPHY
• gthttp//www.trema.com/finance_online/2001/2/TremaR
  oad.html
• gthttp//www.davidpearcesnyder.com/the_impact_wheel
  .htm
• gthttp//www.nervewire.com/services/future_mapping.
  htm
• gthttp//searchenterpriseservers.techtarget.com/sDe
  finition/0,,sid25_gci331391,00.html