INTERSTATE AND INSTITUTIONAL DYNAMICS

1
INTERSTATE AND INSTITUTIONAL DYNAMICS

• Remarks by Alyson Bailes, University of Iceland

2
WHAT QUESTIONS, WHAT ATTITUDE?

• Questions directly affecting European military
  efforts
  - World
  pattern of military action
  - Europes own internal and
  external needs - How (other)
  great powers behave, and affect us
• Attitude
  - A
  European standpoint (inc. values)
  -
  Needs drive institutions not vice versa

3
WHERE DO WE START FROM?

• Post-modern features in Europe
  - new motives for missions abroad
  - high level of institutionalization (UN,
  EU, NATO)
• Less modern features of armed forces, going
  backwards on collectivization
• Resulting frustrations for NATO, EU less threat
  more available forces but less readiness for
  painful change

4
GUESSES ABOUT THE GLOBAL CONTEXT

• More multipolar, less W. dominance
• Declining willingness by great powers to
  intervene in each others backyards
• Some institutional frameworks/safeguards in
  regions of mixed or shifting influence
• ? More regional control of hard security, other
  intervention limited except in non-regionalized
  places (or jointly for containment?)
• In soft and human security, economics global
  control plus regional execution, subsidiarity

5
EUROPE FOUR SCENARIOS FOR MAINTAINED OR
INCREASED MILITARY EFFORT

• 1) Re-militarization (Russia, China, Islamic
  threats)
• 2) Focus on some or all peripheries deliberate
  threats and disorder
• 3) Defence extending beyond borders for
  tangible and direct European interests (trade,
  migration, management of chaotic zones)
• 4) Military support for civil, homeland or
  societal defence (more emergencies, possible
  civil disorder)
• NB EU tends to get stronger in all except No 1,
  as well as expanding its softer defence roles
• How far will USA want to/be able to help in any?

6
IF EUROPES OWN MILITARY NEEDS REMAIN MODEST....

• Little chance of intensified, integrated military
  efforts just for action abroad
• Possible new solutions (all with more joint
  funding)
  - selected warrior nations
  - hiring
  neighbour/developing nations troops
  
  - creating supersized French Legion

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FINALLY, ARMS AND TECHNIQUES

• In a weak Europe scenario
  - more nuclear reliance,
  integration of Fr/Br weapons ?
  -
  newer destructive techniques as trump cards ?
• Better for European values
  - more humanitarian limitations
  - ? green limitations