Anticipated Changes in NC

1
Anticipated Changes in NCs Older Population
Preparation

• Presented to the NC Study Commission on Aging
• Jim Mitchell, Ph.D.
• Associate Director, UNC Institute on Aging
• Director, Center on Aging, ECU, Brody School of
  Medicine

2
Immigration and Change in NCs Older Adult
Population

• For decades, developers have marketed the appeal
  of NCs coastal, mountains, and sand hills areas
  to retirement eligible populations. Ultimately,
  all water-adjacent counties and municipalities
  will likely feel the effects of this trend.

3
Percent Change in Elderly Populations In the
Coastal Counties of Eastern North Carolina
Observed Percent Change In Municipal Populations
Aged 65 Years from 1980 to 2000
Center for Health Services Research and
Development East Carolina University Greenville,
NC
Data Source NC State Data Center LINC
4
Why Do Older People Move?

• Move 1 In early retirement, higher-income
  relatively healthy people move for amenity
  reasons (vacation destinations) in combination
  with friendship networks. Psychologically
  committed to a move. Amenity-related services.
• Move 2 Anticipating or experiencing disability
  or widowhood move closer to children. In-home or
  community-based assistance.
• Move 3 Move to institutional settings in
  response to declining health or sudden-onset
  events compromising independence. Institutional
  or in-home skilled care.

5
What do we know about older movers?

• Don Bradley (Sociology Department), with
  colleagues, analyzed data from 2000 U.S. Census
  five-percent Public Use Micro-data Areas
  comprising coastal NC. Each Area includes 100,000
  persons and over, creating clusters of coastal
  counties. The data come from people completing
  the long Census form for their household.

6
Top Sending States for Interstate Migrants to
Coastal North Carolina, Aged 60 1995-2000
Source 2000 US census, Five-Percent PUMS
7
Non-South Origin and Nativity of Interstate
Migrants Aged 60 1995-2000,
Source 2000 US census, Five-Percent PUMS
8
Population Aged 60 in Coastal Counties by
Mobility Status
Reported Disability
Source 2000 US census, Five-Percent PUMS
9
How do Interstate Migrants Aged 60 Compare with
Stable Residents Aged 60?

• Migrants are younger than stable residents
  (average age 66 compared to 70).
• Migrants are more likely than stable residents to
  be married and less likely to be widowed.
• Migrants are better-educated than stable
  residents (33 college degree compared to 13).
• Migrants are less likely to be disabled than
  stable residents (26.5 compared to 44).
• Migrants and stable residents are equally likely
  to live in a single-family detached residence.
• Average household income of migrants is higher
  than that of stable residents (59,449 compared
  to 37,926).
• Average owner-occupied property value of migrants
  is substantially higher than that of migrants
  (193,908 compared to 116,608).

10
Older Migrants Are Not All Alike

• Do repeat seasonal vacationers become retired
  immigrants?
• Do healthy later-life migrants return home with
  the onset of disability, do they move closer to
  sources of assistance, or do they stay in their
  destination communities?
• What draws older immigrants to different
  destinations (colonial history ecological
  education restaurant and entertainment
  availability and affordability fishing, sailing,
  or other recreational opportunities and a
  comparatively relaxed pace)?
• Do older immigrants expect and request
  publicly-supported services beyond short-term
  benefits accrued from asset relocation and
  investment?
• What is the effect of immigration on the
  sustainability of local ways of life (e.g.,
  Ocracoke watermens coop to preserve the only
  remaining fish house on silver lake, local
  efforts to preserve watermens access to the
  Marshallburg harbor, or the impact of rising tax
  values on Hyde and Beaufort County family farms)?

11
Preparedness is A Process

• Migration among older people is fluid and
  changing. The dynamics, or reasons why older
  people move, their destinations, their resources,
  and the type of assistance they require varies.
• Consequently, preparedness is viewed best as
  an on-going process fostering informed decisions
  about the allocation of resources to meet varying
  needs.

12
Proposed Retirement Migration InitiativeA
Sustained Cooperative Effort of the UNC Institute
on Aging and the NC Division of Aging and Adult
Services
Steering Committee
NC Division of Aging Adult Services
UNC Institute on Aging
Aging Migration Initiative East Carolina
University
UNC Partners
Local and State Government Policy
Constituencies
Chambers of Commerce
Area Agencies on Aging
13
Aging Migration Initiative East Carolina
University

• The Initiative supports the on-going study of
  the dynamics and the impact of retirement
  migration.
• Researchers representing multiple disciplines
  (Sociology, Anthropology, Economics, Political
  Science, Geography, Marine Resources, etc.)
  across campuses would participate in projects to
  describe and understand the consequences of
  migration of older people. Resulting information
  will be shared publicly and with entities
  responsible for state and local policy and
  resource allocation.
• The advantage of this approach is that it is
  proactive, grounded in the anticipated
  consequences of inaction, rather than reactive.