Western Governors Association Expanded Biomass Resource Assessment

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Western Governors Association Expanded Biomass
Resource Assessment Supply Analysis

• Richard Nelson KSU
• rnelson_at_ksu.edu
• Peter Tittman and Nathan Parker UC Davis
• pwtittmann_at_ucdavis.edu
• ncparker_at_ucdavis.edu
• Bryan Jenkins UC Davis
• jenkins_at_ucdavis.edu
• Anneliese Schmidt Antares Group, Inc.
• aschmidt_at_antares.org

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Objectives

• To provide estimates of quantities of various
  biomass resources throughout the WGA region for
  use as feedstocks for liquid fuel
  (transportation) production in 2015
• Use these estimated quantities to generate
  potential supply curves
• Input quantities and supply curves to UC Davis
  GIS analysis

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Project Background

• Project builds on the previous WGA-sponsored
  Clean and Diversified Energy Advisory Committee
  (CDEAC) work of 2005/2006
• http//www.westgov.org/wga/initiatives/cdeac/bioma
  ss.htm
• Focus of that effort involved quantifying supply
  of biomass resources for electricity only

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Resources Considered in WGA Region

• Agricultural crop residues
• Tallow and yellow grease
• Orchard and vineyard trimmings
• Forest thinnings
• Energy crops (SRWC and herbaceous)
• Corn for grain and select oilseeds (soy and
  canola)

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Agricultural Crop Residues

• Corn stover and small-grain straws (wheat,
  barley, oats, rye)
• Employed methodology that estimated residue that
  must remain on the field surface such that
  NRCS-prescribed tolerable soil loss due to water
  or wind forces is not exceeded will always
  provide a conservative estimate of residue
  removal!
• Values estimated by individual soil type in each
  WGA county (US as well)
• Tillage practice makes a considerable difference
  in residue removal
• Conventional, mulch, and no-till field management
  practices considered
• Carbon and other soil tilth parameters presently
  not accounted for
• Supply curves were generated using edge-of-field
  costs from accepted engineering and economic
  parameters (ASAE AAEA)

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Continuous Corn Remaining and Removable Residue
by Individual Soil Type
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Barley Supply Curve
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Beef Tallow and Pork Lard

• Considered a point source due to
• generation at slaughter facilities
• Quantities (million pounds per year) based on
  slaughter stats provided by Livestock Marketing
  Information Center, private companies, and
  applicable tallow and lard generation parameters
  per head slaughtered
• 220 22 million gallons per year of tallow and
  lard-based biodiesel
• Price ranges varied from 0.11 to 0.30 per pound
  FOB PNW to Gulf of Mexico

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Waste Greases (Yellow and Brown)

• Quantities based on urban population statistics
  and methodology developed by Wiltsee (1999)
• Population Centers of gt100,000
• 9 pounds yellow grease/capita
• 13 pounds brown grease/capita
• 50 MGY (yellow grease) 130 MGY total
• Brown grease not considered as a serious source
  due to high FFA content
• Individual city plant capacities ranged from 0.14
  to gt12 MGY

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Orchard Vineyard Trimmings

• Trimmings from apples, peaches, grapes, pecans,
  plums, walnuts, almonds, etc.
• Production numbers derived from 2002 Census of Ag
  data
• Use of residue data (tons per acres per year)
  used by Jenkins, UC Davis in a previous analysis

Willamette Valley
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Forest Biomass supply comparison (million oven
dry tons per year for 12 western states)
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Short Rotation Woody Crops

• Analysis provided by USFS indicates SRWC in the
  West would probably be too expensive for energy
  due to competing uses (e.g., pulp paper) and
  the fact that an extensive wait exists between
  establishment and harvest with no return on
  investment

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Herbaceous Energy Crops

• Data not currently known with any degree of
  certainty on large-scale production(10-50 million
  gallon per year) in the West so prediction of
  quantities in 2015 is difficult
• Approach
• Use a process of elimination for geographic areas
  based on 20 or less of rainfall, land capability
  class III VIII soil types, and slopes less
  than 15
• Use USDA native grass database that has data (dry
  tons per acre) for unmanaged stands and
  determine economics based on these quantities as
  well as a doubling of the production that could
  potentially occur if the stands were managed
  (e.g., N application, H/P application, etc.)

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Native Grass Mixtures unmanaged
Switchgrass
Big Bluestem
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Corn, Soy, Canola

• Idea is to project potential acreages, prices,
  and production of corn, soy, and canola in 2015
• Obtain corn acreages and production by county
  from NASS (1997-2006) (running average)
• Use FAPRI projections for yield and acreage
  increases and/or decreases and apply to each NASS
  county
• Agriculture, energy, and environmental
  legislation can wreck these numbers

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Environmental Analysis (Biomass Feedstocks)