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Research area 2 Identification and attribution
of present climate trends Compiled by Hans von
Storch Contributions by Serge Planton,
Alexander Theocharis, Isaac Gertman, Srdjan
Dobricic, Elena Xoplaki, Marina Baldi 4. April
2003 Mission statement To document recent
trends in climatic variables, such as near
surface air temperature, precipitation,
storminess in the Mediterranean Basin and the
thermohaline state of the Mediterranean Sea, to
assess their strength relative to the range of
natural variations and to interpret non-natural
trends in the framework of climate change
scenarios.
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Thus, the main tasks of RA2 are

• to collect suitable data of different temporal
  and spatial resolutions. For example, station
  based instrumental (daily to monthly resolution)
  data (incl. metadata) derived gridded data
  model-based analyses local data and documentary
  proxy evidence,
• to examine the data and to improve the quality of
  these data,
• and to determine signal-to-noise ratios of recent
  trends and natural variability and proposition of
  possible causes for recent trends.
• The project concentrates on a number of variables
  with special importance for climate impact
  studies, such as precipitation, near surface air
  temperature or storminess. Emphasis will be on
  on deep thermohaline cells and the Levantine
  Surface Water (LSW) masse. Other variables are
  considered as well.

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• WP1 Data collection
• Ocean observations
• Ocean analyses with models
• Atmosphere observations
• Atmosphere analyses with models
• Historical local data
• WP2 Informational content of data
• Homogenization
• Statistics
• Link to large-scale features
• Extension for the last 200 (or so) years
• WP3 Detection of trends, attribution of
  plausible causes
• Determination of trends and variability
• Determination of signal-to-noise ratios
• Comparison of recent trends with climate model
  projections

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Deliverables

• Complete, homogeneous data sets of a variety of
  atmospheric and oceanic variables of the
  Mediterranean Sea Basin climate for the past few
  decades
• Educated guesses of the climatic history of the
  Mediterranean Sea basin for the past 200 years.
• Determination of signal to noise rations of
  trends vs. natural climate variability (detection
  of anthropogenic signals)
• Check of consistency of expected future climate
  change with ongoing trends.