MODELING AND INTELLIGENT DSS

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MODELING AND INTELLIGENT DSS

• IS3301 Session 4b
• Prof. Mark Nissen

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Agenda

• Decision Modeling Examples
• Dalian Dyestuff Plant
• Intelligent DSS
• Decision Exercise
• Summary

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Decision Modeling Examples

• Influence diagram - work route
• Software contractor selection
• Where does intelligence reside?
• What decisions does LDW make?
• What role could AI play?
• How to model knowledge?

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Dalian Dyestuff Plant

• Dalian Dyestuff
• Largest chemical producer in China
• Chinese economic reform DM?
• Intelligent DSS
• Help Plant managers - production planning
• Optimization functions?
• Expert system functions?
• 10 profit increase - how?
• Qualitative quantitative analysis?

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Intelligent DSS

• Natural vs. machine intelligence?
• AI DSS applications
• Intelligent frontend - user friendly
• Combined problem solving - qual/quant
• Intelligent backend - results interpretation
• DSS agent - delegate decision making
• Technologies
• Expert systems, neural nets, fuzzy sets, genetic
  algorithms, natural language processing, vision,
  robotics, others

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Military Expert Systems

• Turbine Engine Diagnostics
• M1tank engine domain - why?
• Hard problem? Why?
• Expert system approach - why?
• Results?
• Aeromedical Evacuation
• Aeromedical evacuation domain - why?
• Hard problem? Why?
• Consistency planner approach - why?
• Results?

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Decision Exercise

• Network-upgrade decision
• Form teams of 3
• Ten minutes
• Brief class
• Exercise
• Use LDW to address problem?
• How to model problem-solving knowledge?

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Summary

• Models support I problem solving
• Knowledge resides with human
• Intelligent DSS
• Raise IQ of DSS
• Help overcome user ignorance
• Integration of AI with other tools
• Characteristics of intelligence
• Human vs. machine differences
• Several classes of IS use intelligence
• Knowledge modeling in expert systems