DSS for Crisis Planning, Response and Management

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DSS for Crisis Planning, Response and Management

• by Dan PowerUniversity of Northern Iowa and
  DSSResources.COMpower_at_uni.edu

Prepared for ISCRAM 2005 Conference, Brussels,
Belgium
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• What are some of the more creative and
  practical things we can use from the DSS area to
  improve the capability for all phases of
  emergency preparedness and management?

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Defining DSS

• Decision Support Systems (DSS) are a specific
  class of computerized information system that
  support decision-making activities (Sprague and
  Carlson, 1982).
• DSS are interactive computer-based systems and
  subsystems intended to help decision makers use
  communications technologies, data, documents,
  knowledge and/or models to identify and solve
  problems and make decisions.

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Characteristics of a Decision Support System

• Facilitation
• Interaction
• Ancillary. DSS are not intended to replace any
  decision makers
• Repeated Use
• Task-Oriented
• Identifiable
• Decision Impact. DSS are intended to improve the
  accuracy, timeliness, quality and overall
  effectiveness of a specific decision or a set of
  related decisions.

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DSS History Review

• Late 1960s, MIS focused on providing structured,
  periodic reports
• Late 1960s, first DSS built using interactive
  computer systems
• 1975-1980 DSS using financial models with What
  if? analysis
• 1975 Steve Alter MIT dissertation
• 1981-2 Theoretical foundations
• Mid-1980s Executive Information Systems and GDSS
• Early 1990s shift to client/server DSS, Business
  Intelligence, Bill Inmon and Ralph Kimball aka
  Dr. DSS
• 1995 Data warehousing, data mining and the
  World-wide Web
• 1998 Enterprise performance management and
  balanced scorecard
• 2000 Application service providers (ASPs) and
  Portals

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DSS for Crisis Situations

• Some Decision Support Systems are a better fit
  for some crisis conditions, tasks and setting
  factors than are others
• What are examples of different types of
  computerized decision support systems?
• What DSS fit the various crisis planning,
  response and management decision tasks and
  decision roles ?

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Diverse Crisis, Disaster and Emergency Situations

• Recurring emergencies for public agencies
• Sudden natural catastrophic events
• Sudden public infrastructure catastrophic events
• Complex and continuing emergencies
• Public Health crises
• Economic/Political crises
• Terrorist acts
• Company/organizational crises

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Recurring Emergencies for Public Agencies
Traffic Accidents
Air Plane Crashes
Kidnappings
Building Fires
Oil Spills
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Sudden Natural Catastrophic Events
Tornado Tri-State
Hurricane Georges
Mt. St. Helens
Tsunami
A wild fire
1906 San Francisco Earthquake
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Sudden Public Infrastructure Catastrophic Events
1928 St. Francis Dam Flood
Aug. 14, 2003 NE US Blackout
Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor accident
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Complex and Continuing Emergencies
Veterans March Washington, DC 1931
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Public Health Crises
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Ebola hemorrhagic fever (Ebola HF virus)
Oriental Rat Flea - The Black Death
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (Mad Cow)
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Economic/Political Crises
NYSE 10/29/1929
Famine
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Terrorist Acts
Black September Terrorist
NYC World Trade Center Twin Towers
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Company/Organizational Crises
Bridgestone/Firestone and Ford Motor Company
McDonaldss
Enron
Exxon
Union Carbide
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What is the domain of IS, IT?

• Computing Infrastructure
• Transaction processing
• Accounting for transactions - AIS
• End user computer support
• Technology decision-making and leadership
• Supporting Decision Makers!

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DSS vs. TPS

• Different purposes TPS record specific
  transactions DSS are designed to aid in
  decision-making.
• In much of the world, recurring emergencies of a
  small scale are managed from centralized dispatch
  centers with computer-aided dispatch (CAD) tools
  recording the transaction.
• There is a significant opportunity for expanding
  CAD to include more decision support while also
  enhancing its transaction processing role.

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CAD Example
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Supporting Decision-Making

• Is good information and analysis essential for
  fact-based decision-making? IF YES, THEN
• Build DSS when good information is likely to
  improve decision-making
• Build DSS when managers need and want
  computerized decision support

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Is it appropriate to build and use a DSS?
Decision Structure
High
Low
High
Decision Automation
Routine, programmable decision
Decision Frequency
Decision Support Systems
Special studies
Non-routine decision
Low
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What is the purpose of the DSS?

• Collaboration
• Data analysis and retrieval
• Forecasting
• Knowledge sharing
• Operations performance monitoring
• Course of action analysis
• Action decision support for triage, hazard
  assessment or verification
• Contingency planning
• Resource allocation

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Who will use the proposed DSS?

• Senior decision makers/managers
• Operations staff
• First Responders
• Volunteers

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An Expanded DSS Framework

• Primary framework dimension is the dominant
  component or driver of the decision support
  system (cf., Power, 2002)
• Secondary dimensions are
• targeted users
• specific purpose of the system
• primary deployment or enabling technology

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(No Transcript)
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What provides primary decision support
functionality? ? ? dominant component

• Communications technologies
• Data and data management
• Documents and document management
• Knowledge base and processing
• Models and model processing

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Five categories of Decision Support Systems

• Communications-driven DSS
• Data-driven DSS
• Document-driven DSS
• Knowledge-driven DSS
• Model-driven DSS

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Communications-driven DSS

• Communications-driven DSS primarily derive their
  functionality from computer and networking
  technologies that support real-time and
  asynchronous collaboration.

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Skype
http//www.universalvillage.net/uvconline/Features
.shtm
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Data-driven DSS

• Data-driven DSS includes file drawer and
  management reporting systems, data warehousing
  and analysis systems, Executive Information
  Systems (EIS) and data-driven Spatial Decision
  Support Systems. Business Intelligence Systems
  are also examples of Data-Driven DSS. Data-Driven
  DSS emphasize access to and manipulation of large
  databases of structured historic and/or real-time
  data.

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Web-based, Data-driven DSS
Resource information linked to locations
Messak, M., "Decision Support for Mayfield, NY
Fire and Emergency Medical Services", 2003,
posted at DSSResources.COM November 28, 2003.
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Web-based, Data-driven DSS
Databeacon Staff, "East of England Observatory
adopts hosted services decision support
solution", posted at DSSResources.COM May 14, 2004
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Document-driven DSS

• Document-driven DSS help users retrieve and
  manage unstructured documents. A Document-driven
  DSS integrates a variety of storage and
  processing technologies to provide complete
  document retrieval, analysis and support.

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http//www.orau.gov/reacts/medical.htm
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Knowledge-driven DSS

• Knowledge-driven DSS are suggestion systems,
  knowledge-based DSS and management expert
  systems. Knowledge-driven DSS suggest and
  recommend actions to users.

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Web-based, Knowledge-driven DSS
Biss, A. "Dynasty Triage Advisor Enables Medical
Decision-Support", 2002, at URL DSSResources.COM.
Pontz, C. and D. J. Power, "Building an Expert
Assistance System for Examiners (EASE) at the
Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry",
November 2002.
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Web-based, Knowledge-driven DSS
PortBlue (http//www.portblue.com/pub/solutions-ho
meland-security)
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Model-driven DSS

• Model-driven DSS includes systems that use
  accounting and financial models, representational
  models, and optimization models. Model-driven DSS
  emphasize access to and manipulation of a
  quantitative model.

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Some Model-driven DSS Application Categories

• Accounting/Financial including cost-benefit
  analysis
• Decision Analysis
• Forecasting
• Inventory control and stockout
• Location, allocation, distribution
• Manpower planning and assignment
• Project planning and control
• Queuing and congestion
• Reliability and replacement policy
• Sequencing and scheduling

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Web-based, Model-driven DSS Generator
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Web-based, Model-driven Decision Support
Plume Modeling
Tomaszewski, B., "Erie County Emergency Response
and Planning Application Performs Plume
Modeling", March 6, 2005 at URL DSSResources.COM.
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Deployment or Enabling Technology
USE the Web to deliver any category of DSS
Web-Based DSS Web-based, Communications-driven
DSS Web-based, Data-driven DSS Web-based,
Document-driven DSS Web-based, Knowledge-driven
DSS Web-based, Model-driven DSS
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Describing Specific DSS

• A web-based, model-driven DSS for routing used by
  a dispatcher
• A handheld PC-based, knowledge-driven DSS for
  accident scene triage used by an EMT
• A web-enabled, data-driven DSS for real-time
  monitoring by Incident Commander and by staff in
  a Command Center
• A PC-based, model-driven DSS for planning supply
  chain activities used by logistics staff

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Emerging Decision Support Technologies

• Scenario databases
• Web-based planning support systems
• A web-based Planning DSS can assist in
  development of an IAP for a particular
  operational period and help focus available
  resources on the highest priorities/incident
  objectives.
• Instant messaging and collaboration
• Collaborative environments
• Agent-based, realistic simulations
• Real-time DW using GPS, sensors
• Knowledge Management Web Portals

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Integrated Decision Support Environments
Walton, Matt S., III, "Rebuilding an Emergency
Operations Center for NYC following 9/11", 2003,
posted at DSSResources.COM September 11, 2003.
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Command Center Technology
Map Room
Dispatch Center
NYC Command Bus
Mobile Computing
U.S. HHS Command Center
TigerVista Command Center 21D
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Challenges for DSS Development

• Rapid technology change
• Managers as users and customers
• Major issues
• - Are current DSS results decision-impelling?
• - What decision processes to computerize?
• - What data? Data gathering? ETL? Storage? -
  What analytical processing and presentation?
• - What technology for new DSS? Web?
• - Who builds and owns new DSS?

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Some Recent DSS News Headlines

• 04/13/2005 Bull market for GPS Fleet Management
  Systems.
• 04/12/2005 Pfizer taps Send Word Now for
  emergency notification to keep employees informed
  and safe.
• 04/07/2005 2005 Conference of the International
  Computer-Aided Dispatch (CAD) Consortium, Kansas
  City, KS, April 24-28, 2005.
• 04/05/2005 PortBlue named by Amerinet as
  preferred provider of disaster management
  systems expert systems platform now available to
  one-third of all U.S. Hospitals.
• 04/01/2005 Roaming Messenger participates in
  national demonstration of interoperable emergency
  communications.
• 03/29/2005 Intergraph's Geospatial Data
  Management solutions aid emergency response at
  San Ramon Valley Fire Protection District.
• 03/29/2005 Army National Guard's Civil Support
  Teams gain first-response interoperability with
  other agencies .
• 03/29/2005 U.S. Army to secure mobile medical
  information with endpoint security solution from
  Pointsec.
• 03/24/2005 Hundreds responded to Texas City
  Refinery incident BP launches information web
  site.
• 03/24/2005 CompuDyne's Public Safety and Justice
  Division is selected by Prince George's County,
  MD to provide Computer Aided Dispatch System.
• 03/01/2005 NYU creates nation's first academic
  center for private sector crisis management.

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A Path in the Wilderness

• Increase attention to decision support
• More knowledge about DSS
• Pilot projects, retraining
• Understand crisis decision makers and their needs
  
• Cooperate and engage in discussion and debate to
  move to the next generation of decision support

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DSS for Crisis Situations

• Incident Commander can have access to the entire
  range of DSS.
• DSS must scale up and down as appropriate to an
  incident.
• DSS can serve specific responders on the scene of
  an incident.
• DSS can be used in a permanent Command or
  Operations Center for multiple tasks.
• An Incident Commander needs to be comfortable in
  a high technology "cocoon" of wireless
  interconnectivity, web access and stand-alone
  tools like MS Access and Excel.
• COTS like MS Access and Excel can be used to
  create effective small scale DSS for crisis
  decision support.
• As the scale of an incident increases, more
  specialized, web-based applications may be useful
  for distributed data gathering, data analysis and
  decision support in the temporary ICS
  organization.
• Communications-driven DSS can reduce the negative
  effects of time pressure in a crisis situation.
• Data-driven DSS can help monitor the "volume and
  intensity of events", "abrupt or sudden changes",
  and changes in the "external or internal
  environment" of an organization, nation or region.

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More Conclusions

• Web-based, document-driven, group decision
  process structuring applications can improve
  contingency planning.
• Knowledge-driven DSS can potentially assist in
  understanding the "constructs, limitations and
  perceptions of the crisis situation". Checklists
  can become more sophisticated.
• Model-driven DSS based upon quantitative planning
  models can help reduce or manage uncertainty.
  Also, model-driven DSS can help identify
  vulnerabilities and evaluate crisis scenarios.
• Both model-driven and data-driven DSS can support
  crisis prevention activities.
• Web portals and web-based DSS can help crisis
  decision makers monitor news and events and help
  organizations share information with the media,
  stakeholders and the general public.
• Improved communications technologies and handheld
  and portable computing technologies make it
  possible for first responders to bring decision
  support technologies into a crisis management
  setting.
• Communication and information technologies
  continue to breakdown in crisis.

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Even More Conclusions

• Assessing the appropriateness of specific DSS and
  decision support technologies in various crisis
  situations must be an ongoing activity of crisis
  management professionals and academic
  researchers.
• DSS are not relevant, helpful or useful in some
  crisis situations. Only some emergency and crisis
  situations require or will benefit from
  computerized decision support.
• A typology of crisis situations is needed to help
  analyze DSS needs for crisis planning, response
  and management.
• Policy makers must examine who "owns" crisis
  related DSS capabilities and how such
  capabilities should be funded and maintained.
• We can use the Internet and World-Wide Web to
  extend the reach and range of many general
  purpose DSS for crisis planning, response and
  management.
• The Web is a great source of information about
  DSS, please visit DSSResources.COM,
  PlanningDSS.com, DecisionAutomation.com and
  PlanningSkills.com.

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General guidance for building DSS for Crisis
Situations

• Anything that can go wrong will go wrong
• Everything takes longer than you think
• Nothing is as easy as it looks
• KISS Keep it Simple Stupid

Murphy's Laws, http//dmawww.epfl.ch/roso.mosaic/d
m/murphy.html
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References

• Power, D., Decision Support Systems Concepts and
  Resources for Managers, Westport, CT
  Greenwood/Quorum Books, 2002.
• Power, D., Decision Support Systems Frequently
  Asked Questions, Lincoln, NE iUniverse, 2005.
• Power, D., "Can DSS and Decision Support
  technologies help reduce the threat of
  terrorism?", DSS News, Vol. 2, No. 20, September
  23, 2001.
• Power, D., "Can DSS/IS/IT improve the Incident
  Command System? What needs can DSS meet?", DSS
  News, Vol. 6, No. 8, March 27, 2005.
• Power, D., "How can computerized decision support
  help in crisis situations?", DSS News, Vol. 4,
  No. 18, August 31, 2003.
• Power, D., "How can DSS help implement Basel
  II?", DSS News, Vol. 5, No. 15, July 18, 2004.
• Power, D., "How can DSS help in crisis planning,
  response and management?", DSS News, Vol. 6, No.
  6, February 27, 2005.
• Power, D., "How could innovative DSS have
  assisted in specific crisis situations?", DSS
  News, Vol. 6, No. 9, April 10, 2005.

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• Thank you
• Any Questions