Climate change adaptation: adapting to change

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Climate change adaptation adapting to change

• Mark Broadmeadow
• Forestry Commission

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Why do we need to adapt?
Weve been around for millennia, so why have we
only got ten years to save the planet?
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Climate matching - Brechfa

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The rate of change
feet per day
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ESC suitability change Sitka spruce
2050 Low
2080 High
2050 High
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Changing distribution of ash
1961-90
2020s
2050s
2080s
ECI/BRANCH project www.branchproject.org.
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ESC suitability for NVC woodland
1961-90
2050s High
2050s Low
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Unforeseen and extreme events
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Dont forget there are opportunities
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What do we want to protect?
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(No Transcript)
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Adaptation - dont put all the eggs..
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What are the options?
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Make existing ecosystems more resilient

• Manage existing woodlands better - promote
  regeneration and reduce other pressures
• deer management
• fire management plans
• wind hazard management
• Enlarge existing woodlands
• Create habitat networks to encourage natural
  adaptation/evolutionary processes
• Relax designations to reflect likely changes in
  community structure that will still form
  functional woodland ecosystems

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Changing species range beech
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Enhancing resilience of native species

• Redistribute native species within the
  site/landscape/country - ie amend species choice
• Diversify species composition
• mixed species stands, including for commercial
  timber production
• diversification within wood/forest/landscape
• Use seed origins from more southerly regions

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Utilising the available genetic resource
Grimsthorpe - England
Slovenia
Dunnottar - Scotland

• Encourage regeneration and natural selection
• Provenance matching
• Oceanic climate
• Frost risk gt2 degrees south
• Portfolio approach

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Non-native species

• Productive plantations
• commercial timber species for which we have
  (limited) silvicultural knowledge (Nothofagus
  Eucalyptus black walnut pinaster pine).
• New native and amenity woodland
• small component of native species dominated
  mixture
• main component of 'new ecosystems
• from continental Europe - where they are
  components of functional ecosystems alongside our
  native species
• careful consideration required of impacts on
  native species and woodlands
• hybridisation
• pests and diseases
• invasiveness

But.......evidence not sufficient and unlikely
to be necessary in Wales
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Species choice in the urban environment
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Alternative approaches to management LISS

• Species diversity
• Structural diversity
• Regeneration capacity
• regular regeneration provides insurance
• less hostile environment
• encourages natural selection
• Windfirm?
• If not, next cohort present Encourage
  regeneration and natural selection

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Protecting the genetic resource

• Create refugia for species under threat
• Create refugia for identifiable genotypes/races
  under threat - conserve genetic diversity
• Use arboreta/collections as global repository of
  genetic material

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Barriers to effective adaptation

• Uncertainty
• The level and rate of change predicted
• Pests and diseases
• Extreme events
• Some current concepts of nature conservation
• An understanding of new assemblages
• Competing policies
• Complacency

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Conclusions appropriate actions

• There are options we can take now
• The sector needs to act soon to ensure a resource
  for future generations
• We should only implement no or low regret
  measures
• Diversification insures against uncertainty
• Some higher risk actions may be prudent
• Above all, we should not panic........
• .........but take the opportunities climate
  change presents