Epidemiologic Transition

1
Epidemiologic Transition
2
Stage 1 Malthus natural checks

• Omran 1971 Pestilence and famine
• Infectious and parasitic diseases
• Accidents and attacks by animals and humans
• Most violent Bubonic plague
• Tranmitted by fleas from migrating infected rats
• Brought from Kyrgyzstan by army to Italians at
  Black Sea carry on ships to Southeast Europe
• ½ of the European continent population died 25
  million
• China also infected

3
Stage 2 Stage of receding pandemics

• Wide geographical areas/ affects high proportion
  of the population
• Cholera Poor people crowded into industrial
  cities
• Victims punished for sinful behavior and poverty
  was a sin
• Snow refutes by mapping distribution of water
  pumps
• Improve sanitation, nutrition and medicine reduce
  during Industrial Revolution water/sewer
  systems

4
Stage 3 Degenerative and human created diseases

• Increase in chronic disorders associated with
  aging
• Two most important cardiovascular diseases and
  cancer
• Decline in infections diseases
• Polio, measles, neonatal tetanus, diphtheria,
• Pertussis, Leprosy

5
Stage 4 delayed degenerative diseases

• Olshansky and Ault
• Degenerative diseases linger but life expectancy
  is extended through medical advances
• Operations repair deficiencies
• Behavior changes extend life

6
Stage 5 reemergence of infectious and parasitic
diseases

• Consequence higher crude death rates
• Evolution Disease microbes develop resistance.
  Antibiotics and genetic engineering create new
  strains.
• Ex Malaria resistant to DDT
• Poverty TB major cause in less developed
  countries Expensive drugs economic burden
• Improved Travel SARS carried on airplanes
• improved communication pinpoint GIS

7

• Fear of smallpox by terrorists
• AIDS
• 95 of people living with AIDS and 99 of new
  cases in less developed countries
• Sub Saharan Africa 70 of the worlds HIV
• positive population South Africa most cases
  (5)million, 2nd India (4) and China(1)
• Highest rate of infection Botwana (39)
• Caribbean countries 2nd