The Status of Poverty

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The Status of Poverty

• By D Mmari REPOA

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Three broad sections

• Status on PRS targets and Indicators
• Urban Poverty
• Regional differences

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Status on PRS targets and Indicators

• Draws heavily from the HBS (1991/92 and 2000/01)
  and ILFS, but also other sources.eg DHS, TRCHS,
  routine data, etc.
• Presents status and trend over the 1990s
• Clustered according to PRSP outline
• Disaggregated by sex, gender, urban and rural,
  and poverty status where data allowed
• Issues and recommendations relating to PRS
  indicators

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Status on PRS targets and Indicators (Ctd)

• Status reported on
• Income Poverty
• Employment
• Non-Income Poverty
• Education
• Survival
• Nutrition
• Water

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Income Poverty

• No significant net gains in the reduction of
  income poverty for the majority of the population
  during the 1990
• Income poverty has only significantly declined in
  urban areas.
• Data indicates that the focus of poverty
  reduction should be rural and that bold steps
  need to be taken to boost rural livelihoods.

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Income Poverty (Ctd)
Source Household Budget Survey 1991/92 and
2000/01
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Income Poverty (Ctd)
Source Household Budget Survey 1991/92 and
2000/01
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Income Poverty (Ctd)

• The PRS assumes the road network to be major
  obstacle to income poverty reduction (as it
  ensures better cheaper access to markets
  other services
• As of 2000, the virtually all 27,550 km of feeder
  roads were earth tracks or gravel roads in poor
  condition
• Only 8 per cent of the district road network
  (20,000 km) is in good condition
• Only 20 per cent of the regional road network is
  in good condition, whereas 40 per cent is fair
  and 40 per cent poor.

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Employment

• employment in the Government and parastatal
  sectors declined during the 1990s
• employment in the private formal sector increased
• employment in traditional agriculture declined
  during the 1990s, but agriculture remains the
  main source of livelihood for the vast majority
  of the population.
• Utmost concern is the high rate of unemployment
  among youth

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Employment (Ctd)
Percentage distribution of employment by sector
Source ILFS 1990/91 and 2000/01
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Employment (Ctd)

• the proportion of paid employment declined from
  9 to 7,
• the proportion of those working on their own farm
  declined from 84 to 77
• the proportion of those in self-employment
  increased from 7 to 9 in 2000/01.

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Unemployment

• unemployment rate highest in Dar es Salaam
  -increased from 22 to 26
• in other urban areas, unemployment rate increased
  from 6 to 10
• unemployment in rural areas remained unchanged
• unemployment rate highest for youth aged between
  15 and 34, especially those living in urban
  areas.

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Unemployment (Ctd)
Unemployment rates by age and by geographical
location
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Unemployment (Ctd)

• Overall, unemployment in the country has
  increased from 3.5 in 1990/91 to 5 in 2000/01.
• unemployment rate is highest among those with
  primary education and living in Dar es Salaam
• in other urban areas, unemployment is higher for
  those who have completed primary and secondary
  education and above
• in rural areas, education levels do not appear to
  influence the rate of unemployment, possibly
  highlighting the limited use of the concept of
  unemployment in rural areas.

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Unemployment (Ctd)

• A major challenge for the PRS is to enlarge the
  range of viable economic opportunities for the
  poor in rural as well as urban areas.  
• The high levels of unemployment among people with
  primary education in urban areas suggest that
  their skills are insufficient to allow them to
  find gainful employment. Similar concerns exist
  for secondary graduates.
• In the medium term action plans and programmes to
  promote skills for the unemployed youth should be
  put in place.

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Education

• one of the first sector to show some real results
  of the PRS enrolment rates are showing an
  impressive rise.
• however, a large group of children whose right to
  education is at risk because they are over-age
  and cannot presently be accommodated in primary
  schools. It is crucial that complementary
  education schemes such as COBET are expanded
  dramatically to cater for them.

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Education (Ctd)

• As enrolment levels rise, the quality of
  education remains a concern, which is growing
  because of the extra strain the increased
  enrolment puts on the system.
• The impact of HIV/AIDS on the teaching staff
  further complicates the above.
• There remain gender inequities in the education
  system, although gender parity in primary
  education at the national level has almost been
  achieved.

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Education (Ctd)

• Illiteracy
• 28.6 of the population cannot read and write in
  any language.
• more illiteracy among women (36.0) than among
  men (20.4).
• Dar es Salaam shows the lowest proportion of
  illiteracy (8.7 of the population).

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Education (Ctd)

• Illiteracy (Ctd)
• The highest level of illiteracy is found in the
  rural population (33.1).
• Rural women are the population group with the
  highest incidence of illiteracy (41.2, compared
  to 23.9 for rural men)
• Illiteracy among parents has important
  consequences for the education of their children,
  and hence education targets.

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Education (Ctd)

• Primary school enrollments
• the net enrolment rate rose from 54.2 to 57.1.
  1999 
• As a result of the abolition of fees for primary
  education, a move which was introduced in the
  PRSP in 2000, a significant increase in enrolment
  figures can be seen since the year 2000.

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Education (Ctd)

• Primary school enrollments
• In 2001, the net enrolment rate reached 65.5, up
  from 58.8 in 2000.
• The gross enrolment rate from a level of around
  77 throughout the 1990s to 84 in 2001
• If the increase in enrolment in recent years can
  be sustained and enhanced into 2002 and 2003, it
  is quite likely that the target will be met.

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Education (Ctd)
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Education (Ctd)

• Dropouts and completion
• MoE figures show 2001 drop-out rates varying
  between 2.73 between Standard III-IV and 8.9
  for Standard IV-V (PRS target of 3)
• complex, lengthy procedures to be followed before
  a child is struck off the school register
  complicates the analysis, calling for a cohort
  analysis on the pupils who enter primary school
  in a given year vis-à-vis how many complete
  primary school

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Education (Ctd)

• Dropouts and completion (Ctd)
• the pass rate for this examination still poor,
  though improved slightly
• The PRS target of Standard VII examination is
  50 by 2003.
• the pass rate increased to 28.6 in 2001 from
  19.3 in 1999.

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Education (Ctd)

• Transition to secondary schools and secondary
  enrollments
• This transition rate of 21.7 recorded for
  2000. This is low, but obviously much higher that
  the rates that prevailed in the seventies and
  eighties.
• Secondary enrolment is no more than about 6 of
  primary enrolment. But secondary enrolment is
  gradually increasing.

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Education (Ctd)

• Transition to secondary schools and secondary
  enrollments (Ctd)
• Gender equity in enrolment is not a major issue
  in primary education in Tanzania on average, but
  at secondary and tertiary levels, there are
  relatively more boys and fewer girls.

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Survival

• The 1990s have shown no substantial progress in
  the reduction of infant and under-five mortality.
• There are indications that there may have been a
  slight increase in infant and under-five
  mortality rates in recent years, probably related
  to HIV/AIDS

28
Survival (Ctd)

• a holistic approach to children's right to
  survival is called for to achieve the targets
  addressing poverty as well as HIV/AIDS, malaria
  and other infectious diseases.
• Immunisation levels on average are encouraging,
  but still large disparities observed

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Survival (Ctd)

• Infant and under-five mortality
• This analysis shows that infant and under-five
  mortality have not declined over the 1990s and
  that there may have been a small increase in
  recent years.
• An increase is apparent particularly in urban
  areas, possibly explained by HIV/AIDS as one of
  the major contributing factors.

30
Survival (Ctd)
Source DHS 91/92, DHS 96, TRCHS 99
31
Survival (Ctd)

• There is evidence that children of the richest
  quintile are significantly less likely to die in
  infancy and early childhood as compared to the
  national average, though mortality rates are
  generally high for all income groups

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Survival (Ctd)
33
Survival (Ctd)

• modest decline in the immunisation levels in
  1999, but the target is likely to be within reach
  for both DPT and measles immunisation

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Survival (Ctd)

• HIV/AIDS
• The magnitude of HIV/AIDS infection in Tanzania
  is frightening
• cumulative number of cases estimated to be
  660,000
• most affected population category is the age
  group of 20-44.
• There is a rising rate of infant mortality in
  urban areas, most likely linked to HIV/AIDS.

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Survival (Ctd)

• HIV/AIDS (Ctd)
• The prevalence rate of HIV has steadily increased
  over the 1990s, rising from 5.5 in 1992 to 9.9
  in 2000
• Wide disparity in infection rates in districts
  and region (eg 1.5 of 1,075 blood donors Vs
  35.3 of 1,671 in Kilombero district)
• Other regions recording prevalence rates of over
  10 are Kagera, Arusha, Rukwa, Mbeya, Iringa and
  Morogoro. The rates are lowest (under 5) in
  Lindi, Dodoma and Kigoma.

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Survival (Ctd)

• HIV/AIDS (Ctd)
• The gender-gap in HIV prevalence has also widened
  (1992 M 5.3 F 5.9 , 2000 M9.2, F13.3)
• The highest prevalence rate age group (35-39 for
  M and 25-29 for F)

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Survival (Ctd)

• Maternal mortality
• It is difficult to measure and track over time
  as it is statistically speaking a rare event
  (occurring in less than 1 in 100 deliveries), The
  latest nationally representative estimate for
  maternal mortality is from the 1996 DHS and
  refers to the period 1987-1996. A baseline figure
  for the PRS will not be obtained until the 2004
  DHS is carried out.

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Survival (Ctd)

• Maternal mortality (Ctd)
• a proxy indicator the proportion of births
  attended by a skilled doctor, nurse or midwife

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Survival (Ctd)

• Life Expectancy
• The last reliable nation-wide life expectancy
  figures were based on the 1988 Census.
• The Census to be carried out in 2002 will provide
  the first update on life expectancy since 1988.
• Some evidence on changes in life expectancy from
  the National Sentinel Surveillance System and the
  AMMP of the Ministry of Health indicates a
  decline in Dar es Salaam Hai, and a slight
  increase in Morogoro

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Nutrition

• Little progress has been recorded with the
  reduction of under-nutrition rates for children
  over the 1990s.
• Observed disparities in the level of
  under-nutrition between
• rural and urban areas
• children from poorer and richer households
• Indicators
• stunting (height-for-age) - chronic
  under-nutrition
• wasting (weight-for-height)- acute
  under-nutrition
• underweight (weight-for-age)-summary measure

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Nutrition (Ctd)
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Water

• an increase in the use of improved sources of
  drinking water in rural areas (35 to 46)
• the proportion of households using improved water
  has fallen in Dar es Salaam (97 to 94)
• little change observed in other urban areas
• nearly half of the households in mainland
  Tanzania and over half of rural households still
  use drinking water from sources that can be
  considered unsafe.

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Water (Ctd)
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Urban Poverty

• though urban poverty is a concern, much higher
  levels of poverty are observed in the rural
  areas.
• income poverty has declined more rapidly in urban
  areas, particularly in Dar es Salaam.
• Within urban areas, attention must be paid to
  specific poor and vulnerable groups
• people living on streets
• petty traders in the informal sector
• urban dwellers in areas without adequate social
  infrastructure
• people living under poor and marginal
  conditions.