Oil depletion and food depletion

1
Oil depletion and food depletion

• Folke Günther
• Holon Ecosystem Consultants

The ASPO-5 conference San Rossore, Pisa July
18-19 2006
FG
FG
2
The Peak is a factI will not argue around it.
Just discuss what to do.

• Folke Günther

The ASPO-5 conference San Rossore, Pisa July
18-19 2006
FG
3
10000
9000
World population (millions)
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
The rabbit limit (EROIE 1) You can not
invest more energy than you get back, or you
will starve
2000
1000
0
0
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
-1000
T i m e b e f o r e p r e s e
n t
FG
4
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
Cheat the rabbit limit Invest more (exosomatic
energy) than you get back
2000
Fossil fuels
1000
0
0
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
-1000
T i m e b e f o r e p r e s e
n t
FG
5
World population, millions
10000
Interlude What might this tell us about the
carrying capacity for humans on the planet Earth?
9000
8000
7000
Think away the impact of fossil fuels on the
human population
6000
5000
But assume we have became more wise and more
careful about the Earth, thereby increasing the
natural carrying capacity
4000
Carrying capacity today Less than 1.5 billions
3000
2000
1000
0
0
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
-1000
T i m e b. p.
FG
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6
Statement Energy is cheap
Comment This guy has never tried to fill the
tank of his car
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Is energy cheap?
Let mathematics help!
Division
Cancel Money
Money / work hour
Money / kWh
Figures from Sweden
FG
8
1920400 seconds per kWh
450
New energy price measurement Work time / kWh
400
350
300
Increasing energy price World depression
250
Energy is cheap!
200
150
1960-2006
40 seconds per kWh !
100
50
Figures from Sweden
FG
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The food system

• Statement
• The most influenced from access to cheap energy
• Hence
• The most vulnerable to energy price increases

FG
10
1Natural functions are replaced by fossil fuel
work
High yield
Energy demanding functions in plant growth
Seed productionwith residual energy
Improved wheat
The farmer takes care of
Low yield
Seed productionwith residual energy
Wild wheat
Pest defence
Competition with neighbours
Seed distribution
Pest defence
Seed distribution
Planting
Competition with neighbours
using cheap fossil fuels!
by feeding micro-organisms and fungi
Planting
using solar derived energy!
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11
2 Agricultural production is an end product
of fossil fuel work
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Mollison A Permaculture Manual
12
The current agricultural system works as a black
box
to convert fossil energy into food energy
Agriculture
Sweden,1994
FG
13
3 Efforts to increase energy efficiency dont
consider the food system
45000
40000
Assume Four persons living in a house
35000
30000
Conventional house (according to Byggnorm 80)
25000
Energy use, kWh/year
20000
17 000 kWh/yr
about 8 000 kWh/yr
Super-insulated house
15000
10000
5000
0
House
Car
Food
FG
14
3 Efforts to increase energy efficiency dont
consider the food system
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
Heavy car (10-12 l/100 km)
Energy use, kWh/year
20000
about 8 000 kWh/yr
15000
about 6 000 kWh/yr
10000
5000
Light car (5-7 l/100 km)
0
House
Car
Food
15
3 Efforts to increase energy efficiency dont
consider the food system
45000
Energy use in the food system About 40 000
kWh/yr
40000
35000
Food system efficiency About 0.1 High
vulnerability to energy price increase
30000
Four persons
25000
Super-insulated house
Energy use, kWh/year
Saving potential in thefood systemAbout 32 000
kWh/yr
Light car (5-7 l/100 km)
20000
about 8 000 kWh/yr
15000
about 6 000 kWh/yr
10000
Assume 4 000 kWhfor local management
5000
Metabolic needAbout 4000 kWh/yr
0
House
Car
Food
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Energy use by the food system

• Natural functions are replaced by fossil fuel
  work
• Agricultural production is an end product of a
  fossil fuel powered system
• Efforts to increase energy efficiency dont
  consider the food system

FG
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17
Material needs of the food system
FG
18
To produce food, you need nutrients
In principle, nutrients are the constituents of
the animal or vegetable body
FG
19
The constituents of an animal (or vegetable) body
H O C N S P Na K Ca 64
H O C N S
With gaseous phases can be transported by the
air
All nutrients are not the same
Without gaseous phases must be transported as
solids or liquids
20
H O C N S P Na K Ca 64
All nutrients are not the same
P
Na K Ca 64
More common in the Earth crust than in the body
phosphorus is the most important nutrient !
21
Linear flows
STORAGES
MINERAL PHOSPHORUS
MINES
INDUSTRY
P
FERTILIZER PESTICIDES HERBICIDES DETERGENTS
P
AGRICULTURE
FOSSIL ENERGY
Food
P
CITIES
P FLOWS FROM SOURCES TO SEA
OIL NATURAL GAS
WASTE or LEAKAGE

• RESOURCE DEPLETION
• HIGH ENERGY DEMAND
• POTENTIAL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS
• POLLUTION

WATERS
P
FG
22

• Hampered

Effluent
Accumulation
Process
The HEAP trap
23
Foodwith P
Food with P
Most of the food comes to the city from very
large distances
..while the phosphorus in the sludge is placed
on a much smaller area
PO4
PO4
PO4
Food with P
24
Food with P
Food with P
This means that there will be an accumulation of
phosphorus around the city
The larger the amount accumulated, the larger
the leakage
At saturation, nutrients leak into the water at
the supply rate.
PO4
PO4
PO4
PO4
PO4
PO4
PO4
Food with P
25
Food with P
Food with P
At that time, the investment in water
purification plants will not hamper phosphorus
pollution
PO4
PO4
PO4
PO4
PO4
PO4
PO4
Food with P
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The HEAP effect-- diffuse nutrient leakage

• Is an inevitable effect of urban agglomerations
• Is an inevitable effect of deficient nutrient
  recycling
• Can be solved by a changed settlement
  infrastructure
• (or an extremenly expensive transportation system)

27
Extraction horizons of phosphorus
At higher energy price
?? years
100 150 years
At current energy price
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To sum up
We have a problem.
Our economic system is driven by liquid fuel
energy
Liquid fuels are half empty
Energy demand is rising
We will expect reduced fuel access
1 annual increase
6,300 nuclear reactors to fill the gap
We will probably be unable to fill the gap
520 new per year
2 new per week
2031
For those who prefer wind power plants, just add
three zeros!
The conclusions are clear
Energy price will increase
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We are in trouble
We are in trouble!

• Cheap energy will soon be a memory of forlorn
  times
• Without cheap energy, phosphorus need to be
  recycled
• Without cheap energy, supply lines need to be
  short (Clausewicz)
• Without cheap energy, we have to rely on
  ecosystem services (Mollison)

But Always look at things from the bright side!
Think of all the wonderful things you can tell
your grandchildern!
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One hectare
Feed
Balanced agriculture Animals are fed with plants
growing from their manure about 80
circulation of nutrients
Manure
PO4

• The solution to linear flows
• circular flows
• nutrient recycling

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One hectare
Feed
Manure
Food
PO4
The 3-4 kg amounts to the P content of the
excrements from 5 persons
.. but 3-4 kg of the phosphorus (20) is exported
as food
0,2 ha/pers
Urine
32
One hectare
Feed
Manure
.. these nutrients must be returned in order to
close the cycle
Food
PO4
With source-separating toilets, nutrients can be
recycled
PO4
Urine
0,2 ha/pers
33
One solution to several problems

• Unsustainable supply systems
• local production
• Linear flows of nutrients from source to sea
• local recycling of nutrients
• The HEAP trap
• ruralisation (the inverse of urbanisation)
• Inherent eco-damaging behaviour
• ecomimetic settlements

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One solution to several problems

• Ceasing post-peak supply systems
• local production
• Ceasing post-peak fertilizer supply
• local recycling of nutrients
• Unavoidable urban leakage
• ruralisation (the inverse of urbanisation)
• Adaptation to a post-peak situation
• ecomimetic settlements

FG
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The ecomimetic settlement, a small population
maintained by a balanced agriculture
Small population,about 200,supported by
theagriculture
Balanced agriculture,aimed to support the local
population
The agriculture provides most of the human
foodand all of the animal fodder
Nutrients from the settlement are recycled to
agricultural land no HEAP
Open ditches

• Nutrient reclaim
• Landscape diversity
• Predator habitat
• Lee planting
• Biomass production

Area 50 ha for 200 inhabitants
36
The ecomimetic settlement
PO4
Food
PO4
Feed
Biological greywater treatment plant
(wetpark)Clean water is returned to the
households grid not necessary, improved habitat
37
The ruralisation scenario
A scenario is an imagination made by a scientist
The rules are You can imagine the most
ridiculous things But you have to render a
statement of the effects
38
Start point
Year
In this scenario, the following conditions are
assumed
0
2
3
4
5
1
A scenario is an imagination made by a scientist
3. Furthermore, they understand that the city is
not static, but dynamic. Old houses are torne
down and new are built. (The average life-time
for a house is supposed to be 60 years, which
gives the city a rate of change of 1,6)
At start point, the centre of the municipality
has a population of 33 000The periphery is
inhabited by 3 000
1. The city is inhabited by decision makers who
have the capacity to make far-sighted and
strategic decisions
2. They have the same knowledge of limiting
resources, ecology, the Peak and the rules for
long-term survival as you.
The rules are You can imagine the most
ridiculous things But you have to render a
statement of the effects
4. Instead of building new houses on the places
where the old ones were torn down, they decide to
build ecomimetic settlements in the periphery of
the town.
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Ruralisation after 12 years
Year
6
8
9
10
11
7
12
13
14
15
16
With the given rate of change, the centre of the
municipality has a population of 24 000The
periphery is inhabited by 12 000
Groups of four ecomimetic settlementsEach group
is inhabited by 800 people
Local parks replacing the old houses
40
Ruralisation after 25 years
Year
28
19
20
21
22
18
23
24
25
26
27
29
30
31
32
33
33
34
35
At this stage, the centre of the municipality has
a population of 12 000The periphery is inhabited
by 24 000
5 600 persons
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Ruralisation after 50 years
Year
36
38
39
40
41
37
42
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44
45
46
47
48
49
50
At the end of the ruralisation process, the
centre of the municipality has a population of 3
000. The periphery is inhabited by 33 000

• Minimized dependency of fossil fuels due to
• Localised food-system
• Nutrient recycling
• Local water systems
• Use of sun derivates

• High diversity
• Perennial plants
• Co-operation
• Mutualism
• Nutrient circulation
• On-site consumption
• Water export by evaporation

No HEAP-trapsNutrients are circulated
Many characteristics of the area are closing to
those of mature ecosystems.
42
Thank you!
For more informationwww.holon.se/folke/
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The energy economy of food production
Energy delivered to household about 4.000 kWh/
4 p.
Energy invested by middlemen about 36.000 kWh/ 4
p.
Total energy investment about 40.000 kWh / 4
pers
Energy invested in agriculture about 4.000 kWh/
4 p.
44
The economy of food production
60.000 SEK (about R 30.000)
45
Assume a group of consumers subscribe for food
from a local farmer
46
They will drive the industry out of the market by
paying double the industrial price (half of the
consumer price)
47
60.000
Traditional system
The consumer cost for the food has decreased by
50
..but the remaining is the salary, which will
increase from 3.000 to 12.000, 400
Distribution and trade
30.000
Because of the increased food diversity produced,
the expenses are assumed to increase by 50
12.000
18.000
Salary
3.000
13.000
Expenses
48
Saved money
Lets hope that the consumers will use their
saved money to invest in the agriculture
Cheaper food